Premier League Top 6 Finish odds: West Ham the team to back in top six race
Unfortunately for the neutral, for the third time in four seasons, the Premier League title race has been put to bed incredibly early.
Manchester City's sensational mid-season form means they've all but reclaimed the trophy already, building a near enough unassailable 14-point lead.
But there's plenty to play for behind Pep Guardiola's side.
Who will finish in the top four?
The team that ended City's long winning streak, Manchester United, look set to take second place based on Infogol's final forecasted finishing position, which simulates the remaining fixtures thousands of times to calculate all 20 teams' most likely final position.
So who will be joining the two Manchester clubs at the elite European level next term?
Leicester are only a point behind United, but their credentials for Champions League qualification, albeit strong, are a little more fraught with danger.
Last season’s late collapse cost them a top-four spot, and lives fresh in the memory. A string of injuries have hampered Brendan Rodgers’ side in this campaign, too.
However, their early exit from the Europa League will be a blessing for this race, alongside a real upturn in form coinciding with the introduction of Kelechi Iheanacho to their starting line-up.
Thanks to a very solid underlying expected goals (xG) process, Infogol’s model forecasts an 80% chance of Leicester finishes the job this time around, and clinching a top-four finish.
Thomas Tuchel’s reformed Chelsea team, who have been attributed a 75.2% chance of making the top four, are five points behind the Foxes in fourth place but two points clear of the rest after a stellar start to life under the German.
The Blues are yet to lose since Tuchel took charge, conceding just two goals in 10 league games.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- xG process is the rate at which a teams creates and concedes chances
In fact, Chelsea are barely giving their opposition a chance, conceding an astounding average of 0.51 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
They face West Brom, Crystal Palace, Brighton, West Ham and Fulham in their next five league games, making it easy to envisage Chelsea gaining the upper hand in the battle for Champions League qualification ahead of the final few matches of the season.
Who will finish in the top six?
The fight immediately beneath Chelsea is an intriguing one, with West Ham, Tottenham, Liverpool, and Everton all within three points of each other.
WEST HAM are slated to finish at the top of this tree, given a 58.7% chance of a top six finish by the Infogol model, which implies odds of 7/10, making them value in Sky Bet’s Top Six Finish market at 10/11.
Premier League Top 6 Finish odds (via Sky Bet)
- Liverpool - 2/5
- Tottenham - 4/9
- West Ham - 10/11
- Everton - 11/4
- Arsenal - 5/1
Odds correct at 15:30 GMT (29/03/21)
The league position of David Moyes’ men is no fluke, either, as they have posted strong underlying metrics for much of the season.
The Hammers have averaged 1.61 xGF and 1.29 xGA per game this term, impressively widening the gap between their 10-match rolling trendlines throughout the season.
Had they not collapsed from 3-0 up to draw 3-3 with Arsenal in their final game before the international break, West Ham would be heading into the run-in level on points with fourth-placed Chelsea.
It really is tricky to see beyond the Manchester clubs, Leicester and Chelsea as the eventual top four, with the model firmly backing up the eye test.
No-one should be blamed for being tempted by the Hammers' 6/1 price to crash that party given their showings this term.
Especially considering who is above them in the betting.
Unlike West Ham, Spurs simply cannot be trusted to be consistent under José Mourinho, which makes both their 11/4 top-four odds and the 4/9 available for a top six finish very short - they certainly have the requisite quality to achieve the latter, though.
But with Liverpool close behind, and a tough run-in ahead, it's not difficult to see Tottenham slipping up, despite having crashed out of Europe.
Jürgen Klopp's reigning champions have succumbed to their long injury list over the past couple of months, and while a turnaround is possible, it will be hard to break into the top four. Realistically, victory in the Champions League is their only remaining route into next season's competition.
Despite their well-documented struggles, Liverpool have posted excellent underlying numbers, averaging 1.88 xGF and 1.29 xGA per game this campaign. Unfortunately for the Reds, an underperformance on those metrics has put them in a precarious position.
Infogol's model has them finishing the season in sixth place.
Everton, who sit on the same number of points as their city rivals with a game in hand, are fortunate to sit so high based on their data.
Alongside their clear inconsistencies, the Toffees hold a negative expected goal difference (-6.3 xGD).
If they continue to perform in the same manner, they won’t trouble the top six.
There’s some separation to ninth-placed Arsenal, but it’s worth mentioning that Mikel Arteta’s side have been performing very well from a data perspective since Boxing Day, without garnering the amount of points they deserve.
They’ve averaged 1.70 xGF and 1.23 xGA per game during that period, which may not end with success this season, but can only be a good sign heading into 2021/22.
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