Free betting tips and match preview: Sky Bet Championship - Huddersfield Town v Nottingham Forest
Two sides in desperate need of points meet on Friday night and Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets at 21/10 and 10/3.
Recommended bets
1pt Lewis Grabban to score anytime at 21/10
1pt Lewis Grabban to have 4+ total shots at 10/3
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Huddersfield v Nottingham Forest
- 19:45 BST on Sky Sports Football
A contest between two sides desperate for points as Huddersfield and Nottingham Forest meet having failed to score a goal between them, let alone win, in a competitive fixture this season.
Forest's form is beyond worrying. A spectacular failure to secure a play-off spot when it seemed virtually nailed down on the last game of last season has carried into the current campaign with Sabri Lamouchi's men not able to find the net or have a point next to their name.
While pressure continues to mount on Lamouchi it must be said that his team have missed some glaring opportunities to strike across their opening two games. They posted an xG of 1.39 at QPR while that rose to 1.92 against Cardiff. Both games finished 2-0 to the opposition.
For Huddersfield, the statistics make for grim reading. No points and no goals go alongside the fact they've failed to go above 1 xG in either contest. They posted 0.77 against Brentford while there was an almost non-existent 0.28 in their opener against Norwich.
The hopes of Carlos Corberan creating his own revolution as witnessed at Leeds where he was a part of Marcelo Bielsa's coaching staff hasn't happened and when it comes to picking a winner here, Forest look a more attractive 17/10 for victory and their first points of the campaign.
They need to sort out their efforts in front of goal and one player who does represent good value for a goal anytime is Lewis Grabban. He was brought off after 74 minutes against Cardiff and while Lamouchi does prefer a 4-2-3-1 there may be the possibility of both strikers on together as we witnessed during their last contest.
Grabban netted 20 last season and should have at least one on his tally this season given the opportunities he has failed to convert in recent fixtures. Against QPR, Infogol's model has his 64th minute effort carrying a 59% probability rating while the 83rd minute strike had 49%. Both good chances, both failed to find the back of the net.
That continued into the defeat against Cardiff where he somehow missed a chance with a 78% probability rating in the 16ht minute, while there was a smaller 21% chance in the second-half. The positive is that he's coming close and we've seen in recent seasons what a prolific scorer he can be.
There's a best price of 21/10 out there on a goal anytime which does look generous considering this is an opponent who has conceded four, while conceding an xG of 1.46 and then 2.37 in their next league game. With Huddersfield's already alarming amount of shots conceded, it's also worth looking at Grabban's total shots price alongside a goal.
Town have already faced 39 shots this season while Forest posted 13 against Cardiff last time out. Grabban's had seven shots across his two contests and is likely to hit a high tally if given decent game time again here. Betfair's price of 10/3 on four or more total shots looks good value here; that's a tally he posted in the opening day defeat at QPR.
Score prediction: Huddersfield 0-2 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Lewis Grabban to score anytime at 21/10
Opta facts
- Huddersfield have lost just one of their last 11 home league matches against Nottingham Forest (W5 D5), a 3-0 defeat in February 2014.
- Nottingham Forest have lost their last two league matches at the John Smith’s Stadium against Huddersfield, losing both matches 2-1.
- Huddersfield haven’t started a league season with three defeats in a row since 1992-93, while opponents Nottingham Forest haven’t done so since the 1954-55 campaign.
- Nottingham Forest have lost their last four league matches, last losing five in a row back in January 2004 under manager Paul Hart.
- Huddersfield Town have failed to score in eight of their last 12 league matches (W2 D3 L7), including their first two games this season. They have only failed to score in their opening three league games of a season once, back in 1992-93.
Odds correct at 1700 BST (24/09/20)
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