Portugal 2-4 Germany: Can England learn from Germany's statement win?
Consecutive failures at the group stage of a major tournament isn't a part of Germany's history. Quite literally I mean - it's never happened.
Fears of the disappointment of their failed 2018 World Cup campaign repeating in 2021 were tangible when the draw left them facing France and Portugal, fears that grew following a 1-0 defeat to the current world champions in their opening game, and were embedded when Cristiano Ronaldo gave Portugal a 15th-minute lead in the Allianz Arena.
But where England fans were left with little to celebrate and much to ponder following Friday's toothless goalless draw with Scotland, one of the most anticlimactic nights in recent memory, for fans of Die Mannschaft, Saturday might very well have been the turning point they've been searching for ever since that doomed World Cup defence.
Germany tend to get it right at tournaments. Saturday suggests they might well get it right at this one, and brings into focus concerns that England might be less capable of getting the best out of what they have.
England can learn from Germany
This 4-2 win over Portugal wasn't without its faults from a German perspective, for all that those issues provided what was for the neutral a refreshing antidote to the attrition of Wembley on Friday night.
The combined inadequacies of both defences helped deliver what was undoubtedly the standout game of the tournament so far, but most crucially it was Germany's approach that was the true catalyst.
Where England weren't sure of themselves against Scotland, the Germans threw themselves into this defining game, without fear of what might happen if things did not go to plan.
A defence that struggles for pace was always going to face issues against a Portugal side so effective on the counter attack - and the second goal Germany conceded hardly covered their backline in glory - yet it was how they utilised and backed their own attacking players that suggests they could come close to living up to their seemingly short pre-tournament odds.
They finished with an Expected Goals (xG) figure of 2.32 versus Portugal's 1.62 - significant numbers at both ends of the pitch.
Germany had more shots (13-8) and considerably more efforts on target (7-2). They performed better across the defensive metrics with more tackles, more interceptions and more blocks made, finding a working balance of three at the back and three up front.
Perhaps most pertinently for England, it was a demonstration of an effective three at the back system - something that Gareth Southgate has failed to conquer in the past.
Germany were never that bad, but...
For all that this was a big step forward, it should be said that Germany weren't terrible against France.
Infogol's xG model, which ranks the true size of a scoring opportunity, had them on the right side of that scoreline (xG: FRA 0.32 - 1.09 GER). They could have easily got a goal and forced France into introspection, but found themselves unable to get the better of Hugo Lloris.
Let's not take it too far though. They were outplayed, and the xG numbers can't account for the fact that France had two goals ruled out for offside, saw their winner come via an own goal and played containment football having taken an early lead.
But Germany weren't quite as terrible as a 6-0 defeat to Spain and a shock loss to North Macedonia hinted they might be.
Have Germany found a new way to win?
While it was two own goals that gave Germany a half-time lead against Portugal, they were utterly dominant (xG: POR 0.79 - 1.72 GER) in all areas over those 45 minutes.
Their creativity, combined with an unbridled desire to attack, pushed Portugal back to a point where the only option was to divert the ball into their own net.
This was built upon the system Joachim Low chose to employ. With a three-man defence and no recognised centre forward, Germany utilised width rather than trying to play through the middle - and Portugal couldn't handle it.
Portugal may have produced more crosses but it was the nature of Germany's 15 in this area that caused so many issues. They were driven into the central part of the area and created panic among the Portuguese defence. With the focus shifted there in the second-half, it freed up the chance to chip one to the back post where Robins Gosens was on hand to convert.
They have a system that sacrifices two of their four world-class, out-and-out central midfielders, but it's one that works.
The Leon Goretzka/Toni Kroos/Ilkay Gundogan dilemma will persist for Low. He can only play two, with enough options for the three slots in front of them. However, what it has led to is Joshua Kimmich moving back to the right side of the pitch and that provides balance.
Kimmich's ability on the ball and to find a pass can effectively create attacks but it's the left side that this system significantly benefits because it allows Gosens to feature in the team.
He plays a similar role so well for Atalanta in Serie A and grabbed a goal and two assists on Saturday.
It's hardly a surprise to see Gosens' impact against Portugal after he registered an Expected Assists (xA) figure of 0.49 in defeat to France. This time, there was the added emphasis on his attacking output and it paid off in style.
While it feels like Germany are missing out on a strength area in midfield by sticking with a 3-4-3 of sorts, what they're actually gaining is an incredibly effective left wing-back who gives them the wide option in attack - be that directly or through supporting one of those who has drifted out there.
Pace at the back will be a concern but their own speed and fluidity going forward should provide more positives than negatives. Even with those doubts of pre-tournament still lingering in the back of the mind, we can perhaps pay more attention to the 6/1 on Germany winning the whole thing now.
Ditching a striker is brave, opting instead for a centre forward rotation of Serge Gnabry and Kai Havertz in the main. Of course, Havertz has played there for both Bayer Leverkusen and Chelsea, but to go against an out-and-out striker in any tournament, let alone one that has put them in a group such as this, could have been a catastrophic failure.
Instead, we're seeing that sacrifice inspire creativity and a strength of will and purpose underlined by the fact that Low opted for an unchanged side to the one beaten by France. The result? Germany's final xG figure was 2.32 - Italy posted 2.03 in their dominant victory over Turkey on opening night - and as other fancied sides fumble around, searching for identity, Die Mannschaft suddenly has one again.
For a team who have now registered 3.43 xGF in their two outings at the tournament, four goals against the current European champions was in some way deserved. And it suggests that they could beat Hungary in comfortable fashion - that's a side who picked up a 1-1 draw against France an hour before things got under way in Munich.
While England faltered and disappointed in the draw with Scotland, Germany demonstrated that concerns about their future prospects have been exaggerated with this statement win less than 24 hours later. It's a contrasting tale of two sides whose Euro 2020 future is likely to intertwine at some stage.
Germany get it right when it matters the most, a quality which has evaded England for a long time now. Here, they played to the strengths of their attacking line-up, and posed a question which Gareth Southgate will have to face: why are his Three Lions afraid of doing the same?
Odds correct at 1925 BST (19/06/21)
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