Friday night football sees Fulham welcome Leeds and Tom Carnduff is backing an away player to play their part.
Football betting tips: Fulham v Leeds
1pt Tyler Roberts to score anytime at 24/5 (Unibet)
1pt Tyler Roberts to have 1+ assists at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
0.25pts Raphinha to assist Tyler Roberts and Roberts to assist Raphinha at 200/1 (Sky Bet)
Death, taxes, Leeds losing in London. Why the West Yorkshire side can't secure victory in the capital remains a mystery. They are winless in their last 16 away games against London sides in all competitions since a 3-1 win at QPR in December 2017 - 14 of those games ended in defeat.
Is it a curse? I don't fully buy into it and context is key. Leeds don't look at London and think 'yeah we're not winning there today', it's just that the come up against good opponents or teams who have something significant to play for. Brentford, Fulham and Millwall all finished in the top-eight last season and pre-Bielsa, Leeds just weren't very good.
Has this influenced the prices in the outright betting for this one? Leeds have picked up 14 points away compared with Fulham's 10 at home. The Whites have a perfect 50/50 split on home/away points and have earned some good results on the road this season.
Tyler Roberts represents value
A player who was flagged up in the latest Punting Pointers, Tyler Roberts looks good value to have some form of goal involvement in this game. Despite Leeds' lack of goals across their last three, they should have had a couple at West Ham and were denied by both the crossbar and goalkeeper against Chelsea.
The 24/5 best price on ROBERTS TO SCORE ANYTIME is based upon the fact he hasn't scored this season, but his recent performances suggest that a goal is coming. Edouard Mendy's fingertips onto the crossbar denied a goal in the draw with Chelsea.
Patrick Bamford should be fit enough to play on Friday but Rodrigo's injury means that Roberts will retain his starting spot just behind the striker. He had two shots against Chelsea and two against Aston Villa - it feels like a goal is coming for Roberts based on previous showings.
I'm also surprised to see ROBERTS TO HAVE AN ASSIST as big as 15/2 with Sky Bet. He grabbed an assist in recent games against Arsenal and Southampton and could get another given the opposition on Friday.
He could well have had more too. Roberts has seen at least one key pass in five of his last six Premier League appearances and registered one during a 45-minute appearance in the meeting between these two at Elland Road.
Roberts looks to have been priced up on his record rather than his recent showings. It's also worth noting that he has largely been limited to appearances from the bench, with ten of his 17 league games coming as a substitute. That's affected his numbers but he can make an impact in the starting XI.
I'm also willing to put small stakes behind a fun bet for the evening, with 200/1 available with Sky Bet on ROBERTS TO ASSIST RAPHINHA AND RAPHINHA TO ASSIST ROBERTS. We don't need to say too much more on Raphinha's impact for Leeds and it'll be interesting to see if the pair can form a decent partnership with regular minutes in the starting XI together.
Raphinha has seen a huge tally of 17 key passes across his last five games and has an Infogol Expected Assists (xA) figure of 6.84 despite having a lower five actual assists. It's worth gambling on Roberts' goal coming from a Raphinha assist if he is to strike.
When it comes to the actual result, I'm willing to look past this supposed 'London curse' for Leeds based on their record against teams at the bottom.
Seven of their ten games against teams currently below them have all ended in victory, while Fulham have only seen victory in three of the 20 games against sides sitting in 13th and above, that run also includes 12 defeats, and this is a contest where ROBERTS and RAPHINHA can star.
Fulham v Leeds best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Tyler Roberts to score anytime at 24/5 (Unibet)
- 1pt Tyler Roberts to have 1+ assists at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
- 0.25pts Raphinha to assist Tyler Roberts and Roberts to assist Raphinha at 200/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Fulham 0-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1405 GMT (17/03/21)
Opta facts
- Fulham have lost just one of their last eight home league games against Leeds (W4 D3), going down 0-3 in the Championship in March 2015. The Cottagers are unbeaten in all three home games against them in the Premier League (W2 D1).
- Following their 4-3 victory at Elland Road earlier this season, Leeds are looking to complete their first league double over Fulham since the 1984-85 campaign in the second tier.
- Leeds are winless in their last 16 away games against London sides in all competitions since a 3-1 win at QPR in December 2017 (D2 L14). The Whites have lost all five of their games in the capital this season, conceding 16 goals along the way.
- This is Leeds’ fourth Premier League game on a Friday this season (W1 L2), more than any other side so far this term. Only Arsenal in 2003-04 and Norwich last season have played as many as four Friday games in a single Premier League campaign.
- Only Sheffield United (11) have lost more home Premier League games than Fulham this season (9), while Fulham are the lowest scorers in home games this term (8). Five of their eight home goals came in their first five games this season, with the Cottagers netting just three in their last 10 at Craven Cottage.
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