Could Southampton be relegated? Expected goals analysis of the Saints' drop in form
November 6, 2020. A comfortable Friday night win over Newcastle sees the Saints rise to the top of the Premier League table.
An impeccably-timed 'STOP THE COUNT' tweet from Southampton's official account, in the wake of Joe Biden's victory in the US Election days earlier, followed.
Let's jump forward a bit. After losing just two of their next eight league fixtures (to Manchester United and Manchester City), Southampton defeated reigning champions Liverpool on January 4, 2021. As a result, they were sitting pretty in the top-six, with 29 points from their opening 17 games.
Sky Bet offered up 750/1 for Southampton to be relegated in the days after that win, and understandably so, but a massive collapse has seen them drop down to 33/1 with the same firm.
Ralph Hasenhüttl's side have gained only one point from the following nine matches, plunging the Saints into a possible relegation fight.
What is wrong with Southampton?
Focusing on that awful nine-game spell, you could be forgiven for thinking that Southampton's defence is the problem. A second 9-0 defeat in successive seasons for Ralph Hasenhüttl's side dominated the headlines last month, while conceding three to Newcastle in the next fixture raised further questions about their backline.
However, their underlying numbers in defence have been better than results would have you believe.
What is Expected Goals (xG)?
- Expected Goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected Goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected Goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
The 9-0 loss to Manchester United should be viewed as an outlier.
Southampton fell apart having had a man sent off in the second minute, conceding a huge 4.98 expected goals against (xGA) — a clear reason behind the sharp rise in their xGA trendline recently.
Across the other eight matches, Southampton have allowed chances equating to a respectable 1.37 xGA per game, correctly intimating that the real issue is at the other end of the pitch.
The Saints have found it difficult to create chances all season long, averaging a meagre 1.08 xGF per game. For perspective, Newcastle, a team repeatedly mocked for their lack of attacking intent, have recorded a higher average.
A massive over-performance on attacking metrics papered over the cracks in the early part of the 2020/21 season. Prior to the discussed nine-game period, Southampton scored 26 goals from a total 17.98 xGF, explaining their unjustifiably high position in the table at that point, but a quick regression to the mean has hit them hard since.
The Saints have scored just five goals from a total of 10.02 xGF in the last nine games, maintaining their consistently poor level of offensive performance without the bonus of the positive variance from the previous spell.
Ings and Adams starved of service
Danny Ings and Che Adams have hardly had bad seasons, either. In fact, one could argue they have been the standout performers in Southampton's campaign.
The pair dominate Southampton's actual goal involvement, and account for 48% of the team's total xG, often relying on each other for production.
James Ward-Prowse's sublime quality from set-pieces is well-documented, but his lofty position in Southampton's expected assists (xA) standings is indicative of their lack of creativity in other areas.
Full-backs Ryan Bertrand and Kyle Walker-Peters, who were a source of inventiveness last term, are surprising low in the same metric, recording a measly 1.37 xA between them.
Jannik Vestergaard's metrics are a further example of the same troubles, sitting third in total xG with a total of 3.11. While he is a big threat from dead-ball situations, it's rare to see a centre-back rank so highly, especially with the number of minutes the likes of Stuart Armstrong, Theo Walcott and Nathan Redmond have logged.
Injuries have exposed what is a thin squad in recent weeks, but this has been an issue for Southampton for the entirety of the 2020/21 campaign, making those excuses a hard sell from an attacking standpoint.
Will Southampton be relegated?
Despite the predicament the Saints have put themselves in, the 33/1 available suggests it is still highly unlikely that Hasenhüttl's side drop to the Championship, and for good reason.
Southampton are currently seven points above 18th-placed Fulham with a game in hand and the teams between them are seemingly intent on including themselves as serious contenders for relegation.
Saturday's game against a short-handed Sheffield United defence could hardly be a better opportunity to move further clear of danger and put their attacking woes behind them.
If they fail to perform and/or lose the vital upcoming match-up, a trip to the juggernaut that is Manchester City awaits, and with it a relegation battle.
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