Southampton v Leicester City betting preview: Premier League predictions & best bets for Friday Night Football clash
Friday Night Football comes from St Mary's as Southampton welcome high-flying Leicester. George Pitts previews the action.
Recommended bets
0.5pts Jamie Vardy to have 2+ first-half shots on target at 9/1
1pt Leicester to have 14+ shots at 7/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Southampton v Leicester
- Sky Sports Premier League, 2000 BST kick-off
Plenty of questions have been asked of Leicester's credentials so far this season - and they have answered most of them.
Brendan Rodgers' top-six hopefuls have beaten all of the teams that finished outside of the top seven last season (dropping points only to Wolves, Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool) and the Foxes' Friday night test sees them travel to Ralph Hasenhuttl's Southampton - good on their day, but far too inconsistent.
Given Leicester's form, and the fact Southampton are winless in their last four and have only been victorious twice all season, the visitors are available at a surprising general price of around 2/1 across the board and even attractive odds at just under evens for those keen on the safety net of draw no bet.
Preference for this one, though, is to look at the shots market, firstly with an attractive offering on Jamie Vardy.
The 32-year-old has enjoyed a resurgence under Rodgers, who is getting the best out of him with a more direct style of play. In fact, he has his best goals-per-game ratio under the Northern Irishman than any previous permanent manager at the club.
Vardy has six Premier League goals to his name so far, the latest coming in last week's comeback win against Burnley, and you would expect the style of both clubs to result in plenty of action at both ends.
With this in mind, 9/1 for him to have two first-half shots on target does catch the eye. Those opportunities could soon come in a flurry in and around the box and a small interest bet is advised.
With Vardy, Youri Tielemans - on the back of last week's goal - James Maddison, Demarai Gray, Harvey Barnes and Leicester's full-backs all providing a dangerous attacking outlet, the visitors to have 14 or more shots at 7/4 is also worth an interest.
City will need to be clinical to get the points and keep their place in the top four going into the weekend, and they could rack up the chances in the process.
They average 12 shots per game away from home this season, but three of their four opponents on the road have been top-six sides and we could soon see that average increase.
This market does cover a range of shots - blocked efforts, sliced attempts and anything else considered an attempt - so Leicester could easily reach that total as a side packed with players not afraid of trying their luck.
Prediction: Southampton 1-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bets
Opta stats
- Southampton won their last Premier League match against Leicester (2-1 in January), and are looking to secure consecutive wins over them in the competition for the first time since 2001.
- Leicester have won their last two Premier League away games against Southampton, more than they had in their first 11 such games against them (W1 D5 L5).
- Southampton have been shown five red cards in Premier League games against Leicester, more than they have vs any other side. They had a red card against the Foxes in both games last season – they’ve never had a player sent off in three consecutive games against an opponent in the competition.
- Leicester have never won a Premier League match on a Friday (P7 W0 D2 L5), playing more games on that day of the week without winning than any other side in the competition.
- Southampton are winless in six Premier League home games (D3 L3), including all four so far this season (D1 L3). They failed to win any of their first five home games last season, and could become just the third side in history to do so in consecutive top-flight campaigns (Bury in 1904-05/1905-06 and QPR in 1973-74/1974-75).
- Since the start of last season, Southampton have won just 24 points from their 23 home Premier League games (W5 D9 L9), the fewest of any side to have played in both seasons.
- Leicester City have won a league-high seven points from losing positions in the Premier League this season, coming from behind to win their last game against Burnley.
- Southampton have kept just one clean sheet in their last 18 home league games, conceding at least once in each of their last nine. They’ve conceded first in all four Premier League home games this season – only in January 1997 have they conceded the first goal in five consecutively at home in the competition.
- Southampton’s Danny Ings has scored five goals in his last four games in all competitions, netting in four consecutive games for the first time ever in English football.
- Jamie Vardy averages a goal every 113 minutes in the Premier League for Leicester under Brendan Rodgers, his best ratio under any permanent manager at the club in the competition. He’s netted 15 goals in 19 games since Rodgers’ arrival – only under Claudio Ranieri (29) and Claude Puel (23) has he scored more Premier League goals, playing more than 50 games for each of those managers.
Last time out: Highlights
- Wolves 1-1 Southampton
- Leicester 2-1 Burnley
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Odds correct as of 1200 BST on 24/10/19