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Aston Villa v Leicester betting preview: Free Carabao Cup semi-final tips, prediction and best bet

By Paul Higham

19:44 · TUE January 28, 2020

It's all square after the first leg but Paul Higham expects Leicester's extra quality to get them through to Wembley at Villa Park.

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1pt Leicester to win & over 2.5 goals at 5/4

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Aston Villa v Leicester

7.45pm Sky Sports Main Event

This is finely poised to say the least after a surprisingly good effort from Villa in the second leg, and although Jamie Vardy is back in the squad for the short trip across the midlands after injury he may not quite be at 100 percent and may not even start.

The Foxes are favourites regardless of who they start up front and they’ve responded to a sticky spell of back-to-back defeats with a couple of wins with two different teams in the Premier League and FA Cup – illustrating their superior strength to Villa.

While Brendan Rodgers can easily cover for Vardy, poor old Dean Smith hasn’t been able to field a striker for four games and his need is so great that new signing Mbwana Samatta will get an instant chance to shine by making his debut in the Carabao Cup semi-final.

It’s interesting to note that this tie will go straight to penalties if it’s all square on aggregate with no away goals rule and you’d have to argue that suits Villa more as the weaker of the two sides, who will be up against it if the Foxes are at their best.

Villa Park will be jumping and if there is one fault with Brendan Rodgers' Foxes this season it's that they've maybe not quite done it in the big games against the big teams - and this is certainly a big game if not against a big team.

Wembley is on the line and Rodgers knows a cup final would be the cherry on the cake of what is turning out to be a tremendous season. He can go full strength after resting a few at Brentford and the way his side have played recently they should have enough to take care of Villa.

A 1-1 first leg scoreline means it's just a straight 90-minute fight and the derby aspect will mean there's plenty of energy and enthusiasm from the off, but if Villa come flying out at Leicester the Foxes have the quality to cut them apart.

Goals have usually come in Leicester away games, with 12 having over 2.5 goals and nine of those seeing both teams find the net, that's the same number of times we've had both teams score and three or more goals in Villa home games this season.

Best bet: Leicester to win & over 2.5 goals at 5/4

Opta stats

Aston Villa lost 4-1 to Leicester City in the Premier League earlier this season - the Villans haven't lost consecutive home games against the Foxes in all competitions since August 1969.
Each of the last six teams to draw the first leg of the League Cup semi-final at home have then gone on to be eliminated in the second leg.
Aston Villa managed just three shots in the first leg at the King Power Stadium, fewer than two Leicester players had in the match - James Maddison (8) and Jamie Vardy (4).
Leicester are unbeaten in their last 16 away League Cup matches (W11 D5), though two of those draws saw the Foxes eliminated on penalties.

Odds correct at 2035 GMT on 27/01/20

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