It could be a dress rehearsal for the play-offs on Tuesday as Nottingham Forest welcome Fulham. Tom Carnduff has two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Nottingham Forest to have 20+ tackles at 11/8
1pt Tom Cairney to have 2+ total shots at 13/10 - (VOID)
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Nottingham Forest v Fulham (Sky Sports Football, 17:00 BST)
This was a solid selection when the TV games were announced but it's now a contest between two sides who seem certainties to finish in the play-offs.
Fulham need to hope for a major slip-up from Leeds or West Brom and then find a three-game swing over the next five games. At this point in the campaign it's too much to ask.
For Forest, they will be feeling frustrated after they threw away three points against Derby last time out. Sitting at 1-0, a needless free-kick given away in the 97th minute allowed their East Midlands rivals the chance to score. However, they still have the comfort of a seven-point gap from the Rams who sit in seventh.
This is Fulham's last game without star striker Aleksandar Mitrovic who has been serving a three-game ban for elbowing Leeds defender Ben White. Even without him leading the line, Fulham managed to secure two wins from two.
Bobby Decordova-Reid has filled the striker role in his absence and it's a best price of 12/5 that he nets in this contest. Instead, it is worth delving into the stats-based markets to find one of the best bets in this contest.
Fulham's Tom Cairney has been a real presence in the Cottagers midfield for a number of seasons and has provided a significant attacking threat during his time at the club. He has eight goals on his tally this season with a further three assists.
He is a best price of 5/1 to score anytime, but it's worth taking a bit of a safety net and backing the 13/10 available on two or more total shots in this contest. Cairney has had two or more shots on 13 different occasions this season, with the most recent coming in their 1-0 victory over Birmingham last time out.
There's a good chance he lines up in a central role as part of a midfield three against Forest and he'll have the opportunity to occupy positions in the attacking areas. His heatmap in the game against Birmingham showed how he spent a considerable amount of time in the opposition half.
The midfield battle will be key in this game but Fulham are equipped to come out on top; they will benefit in an attacking sense from Forest lining up with two defensive midfielders which gives them the positions to get shots away.
Those defensive midfielders could also contribute to a high tackle count for the hosts, as has been the case in games against promotion rivals throughout the season.
Forest's season average for tackles stands at 17 per game but there's every chance that could increase here. Their 2-0 win over Leeds had 23 while there were 22 in the away victory over Brentford. 23 was also the marker in their home defeat to West Brom at the start of the season.
Essentially, when Forest have played those teams at the top, their number of successful tackles has greatly exceeded their season average. This could be a contest which follows that pattern.
There's every chance that this contest could be played twice more in the play-offs given their current position in the standings. If nothing changes, Forest and Fulham will meet in the semi-finals.
It's worth sitting on the fence when it comes to an outright winner and backing the draw. The Asian Handicap sitting at 0 reflects how uncertain the money is when it comes to the result.
Instead, the best bets come through delving into the statistics markets and backing Cairney to have two or more total shots with a high tackle count for the hosts.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Nottingham Forest to have 20+ tackles at 11/8
Best bet: Tom Cairney to have 2+ total shots at 13/10
Opta facts
- The last five meetings between Nottingham Forest and Fulham in all competitions at the City Ground have seen 23 goals scored at an average of 4.6 per game.
- Fulham are looking to win consecutive away league matches against Nottingham Forest for the first time since April 1966.
- Nottingham Forest have only lost one of their previous nine games in the Championship (W3 D5), going unbeaten across their most recent four (W2 D2).
- Fulham will be looking to record three consecutive Championship victories for the first time since November 2019 (four in a row).
- Lewis Grabban has scored 19 goals for Nottingham Forest in the Championship this season, and is looking to reach 20 in a second tier campaign for the third time in his career (20 in 2017-18 and 22 in 2013-14).
Odds correct at 1245 BST (06/07/20)
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