Football tips: Premier League weekend best bets
Jake Pearson takes an early look at the weekend's Premier League action, determining which sides are worth backing sooner rather than later, in order to beat the market.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Leeds and Everton to DRAW at 11/4 (Betfred)
1pt West Ham to beat Leicester at 7/4 (Sky Bet, Betway)
Despite both selections in this column losing on the opening weekend of the season - Leeds being dismantled by Manchester United before Leicester snuck past Wolves by a goal to nil - both tips did go off shorter than the prices they were tipped at, which is, in essence, the purpose of the article.
Winners are the name of the game though, so hopefully this week we can identify a couple of outliers in the market who also return a profit.
Leeds v Everton tips
Leeds were tipped in this column last week, and they did shorten, the bet itself registering a positive expected value of around 11%, but of course they were drummed 5-1 by Manchester United.
What is expected value (EV)?
- Expected value, or EV, is the amount a player can expect to win or lose per bet if the same game was played over and over again with the same odds.
- Positive EV (+) represents a long-term result, while negative EV (-) represents a loss.
Back at Elland Road, they will be desperate to get a result, but meet an Everton team with their tails up after a come-from-behind victory over Southampton at the weekend, and who’s away record last season was exemplary.
In terms of Rank Probability Score (RPS), which is a way of measuring how accurate a team is priced based on results, Everton were the most underestimated team by the bookmakers last season, while Leeds also ranked highly on the same metric.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Leeds 5/2 | Draw 13/5 | Everton 2/1
In short, layers found both teams difficult to pin down last season – an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.
As mentioned in last week’s column, backing THE DRAW in matches not involving the traditional ‘big six’ would have seen you identify value for three successive seasons, and it is worth backing these two to share the spoils on the second weekend of the Premier League season.
A top price of 11/4 is appealing and may not still be available come Saturday afternoon.
West Ham v Leicester tips
West Ham opened their Premier League campaign with an entertaining 4-2 victory over Newcastle on Sunday, twice coming from behind to gain the three points, while Leicester secured their first win of the season thanks to a narrow victory over Wolves.
The price for a Wolves victory was one of the biggest shorteners of the weekend however, while West Ham’s price to beat Newcastle was also well supported, and the early betting for this particular fixture makes for interesting reading.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
West Ham 7/4 | Draw 5/2 | Leicester 29/20
Leicester’s away form was bettered only by the two Manchester clubs last season, but the Hammers boasted the second-best home record in the division.
There is little to choose between these two teams in their current guises, just one point and one place separating them at the end of last season, but there are disagreements between the layers as to who should be the favourites for this tie.
The majority of the ‘sharper’ bookmakers have David Moyes’s men slightly ahead in the betting, but a couple of firms look to be taking on the Hammers.
A top price of 7/4 for a WEST HAM WIN looks on the big side, and by the time Monday evening arrives, it is likely that these two will be much more closely aligned in the market.
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