Sporting Life
Saturday best bets Klopp

Football tips, predictions and best bets: Premier League, EFL Championship, League One, League Two for Saturday 19/08/23

By Sporting Life
Football
Sat August 19, 2023 · 1y ago

Football betting tips: Saturday best bets

3pts Both teams to score in Liverpool vs Bournemouth at 4/5 (General)

2pts Ipswich to beat QPR at 10/11 (General)

2pts Stevenage to beat Reading at 15/8 (William Hill)

1.5pts Brighton to beat Wolves at 10/11 (888Sport)

1.5pts Peterborough to beat Northampton at 11/10 (General)

1.5pts MK Dons to beat Colchester at 7/4 (Spread Ex)

1pt Brentford to beat Fulham at 13/8 (General)

1pt Huddersfield to beat Middlesbrough at 4/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Fulham vs Brentford

Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

I came into the new season looking to oppose Fulham early doors, and despite them winning at Everton on opening weekend, my thinking hasn't stance at all.

The Cottagers went to Goodison Park and rode their luck, conceding chances equating to 2.60 xGA against a team who struggle greatly to carve out opportunities.

Bernd Leno has been excellent since joining, but there is a huge overreliance on him at the moment, and he won't continuously overperform on post-shot xG (psxG) given how volatile a metric it is.

Defensive issues are worrying, especially as it's not a one off for Marco Silva's side, who possessed the league's worst defensive process last season when shipping 1.88 xGA per game.

Continuing in that manner will see the losses pile up, and BRENTFORD look a good bet on Saturday to WIN at Craven Cottage.

The Bees have that ruthless nature in front of goal that Everton don't have currently, meaning Thomas Frank's side find it a lot easier to hit the back of the net.

They were impressive against Tottenham last weekend, racking up the chances on that occasion (1.91 xG), and will have plenty of opportunities to do so again this weekend against a poor defensive team and one who lost 13 of 18 games against top half teams last season.

Score prediction: Fulham 1-3 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)

Odds correct 1440 BST (17/08/23)

Liverpool vs Bournemouth

James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)

Bournemouth racked up the third most high turnovers on Premier League opening weekend, behind only Manchester City and Chelsea.

A statistic made even more impressive by the opposition, West Ham, who are one of the more direct sides in the division.

If the Cherries can do that at home against West Ham, in a game they had 63% possession, imagine how dangerous they could be away from home, in a game where they aren’t going to see a lot of the ball?

Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola

Next up is a trip to Anfield to face a Liverpool side that fielded six attackers in their 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge last Sunday.

This match promises goals, making BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE a confident pick.

Score prediction: Liverpool 2-4 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 150/1)

Odds correct 1100 BST (18/08/23)

Wolves vs Brighton

Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)

BRIGHTON’s opening price TO BEAT WOLVES was around 10/11. Three separate events then caused price changes.

First, Julen Lopetegui left Molineux on the eve of the season, causing the price to shorten.

Then, Brighton thumped Luton 4-1 at the AMEX on the opening day, resulting in a rush to back Albion into as short as 8/13.

But a superb display by Gary O’Neil’s team at Old Trafford, which ended in an undeserved, controversial 1-0 defeat, saw us return to the price at which Brighton should be backed.

Roberto De Zerbi’s side are one of the best in the Premier League and O’Neil’s one of the worst.

For all the optimism and siege mentality coming out of the Black Country, one performance will not dissuade me from taking such an enticing price.

Score prediction: Wolves 0-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Odds correct 2130 BST (18/08/23)

Middlesbrough vs Huddersfield

James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)

My Middlesbrough top six prediction is not off to the best start.

Zero points, as many goals scored and four conceded leaves them propping up the Sky Bet Championship table.

The Teesiders are mourning the losses of Chuba Akpom and Cameron Archer, who combined for 39 goals, with the former finishing as top goalscorer.

Michael Carrick's side did beat Saturday’s opposition 3-2 in the Carabao Cup, though HUDDERSFIELD took the lead and then had a man sent off after 13 minutes.

The Terriers sit one place above Boro, buoyed by their marginally superior goal difference.

Huddersfield manager Neil Warnock

The new season has barely begun though which is why it should not cloud our judgement.

Since Warnock took charge in North Yorkshire, his side's underlying metrics regressed but The Terriers have won more points. Last season, Warnock guided them to the sixth highest points tally in the division while he was incharge.

They have been unfortunate this campaign, an xGD of +0.6 across games with Plymouth and Leciester, yet defeats in each.

Siding with the visitors TO WIN appeals at a chunky price.

The hosts have only won three of their last 13 games and Warnock has a knack of getting one over his ex-employers.

Score prediction: Middlesbrough 0-1 Huddersfield (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Odds correct 1130 BST (18/08/23)

QPR vs Ipswich

Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)

IPSWICH have taken 47 points from the last 51 available in the league, picking up where they left off in Sky Bet League One by winning their opening two games in the Championship.

Despite being newly promoted, Kieran McKenna’s side were fourth favourites for promotion before the season got under way and it is already clear to see why.

QPR, meanwhile, look set to struggle at the other end. They required some luck to win at Cardiff last weekend and that result in no way puts me off taking the general 10/11 about Ipswich TO WIN.

Whatever happens at Loftus Road, ride that Town train (or tractor) early season because these prices won’t hang around for long.

Score prediction: QPR 0-2 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct 2115 BST (18/08/23)

Northampton v Peterborough

Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore)

It's a huge surprise to see last season's Sky Bet League One play-off semi-finalists PETERBOROUGH odds-against in places TO WIN at promoted Northampton.

I admit I had concerns about Posh this term after they surrendered a 4-0 first-leg play-off semi lead to Sheffield Wednesday but they have responded with three wins out of three against probable top-half sides Reading, Charlton and Barnsley.

In doing so, they have registered 1.88 xGF (Expected Goals For) per game, a figure that rises to 2.1 over their two away games thus far.

With last season's third-tier top scorer Jonson Clarke-Harris leading the line, they should have far too much for a Cobblers side still adjusting to the new level.

Northampton have allowed 1.49 xGA per game so far - any continuation of that defensive fragility will be punished by Posh.

Score prediction: Northampton 0-2 Peterborough (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Odds correct 1945 BST (18/08/23)

Reading vs Stevenage

James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)

STEVENAGE’s trip to the Madejski Stadium has all the hallmarks of a Steve Evans masterclass.

His side have made the perfect start to the Sky Bet League One campaign, one of only three sides in the division to take maximum points in their opening three games.

Ironically, these quick start looks to be a theme of Evans’ Boro stint. They went unbeaten in their opening five games of last campaign.

As clubs start to wise up to their direct tactics, I suspect results may tail away. Reading boss Rubén Sellés’s passing based style will only play into the hands of Stevenage though which is why the visitors price TO WIN appeals.

Score prediction: Reading 0-2 Stevenage (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Odds correct 1135 BST (18/08/23)

Colchester v MK Dons

Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore)

Colchester sit rock bottom of the Football League early doors and while it's too early to make snap judgements, that's no surprise when you look at their underlying numbers.

The U's were mediocre last season and have begun this campaign even worse, allowing 1.9 xGA per game across their opening two league matches, both of which have ended in defeat.

Visiting MK DONS have made a decent start back in the fourth tier following relegation, winning two of their first three games, including an impressive opening-day victory at Hollywood-owned Wrexham.

The bookies seem unable to split this pair, which is a surprise considering their respective form and recent histories. I'd be backing Dons TO WIN every day of the week against such limited opposition and the price looks too good to resist.

Score prediction: Colchester 0-2 MK Dons (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Odds correct 2100 BST (18/08/23)

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