Sporting Life
Saturday best bets Richarlison

Football tips, predictions and best bets: Premier League and Sky Bet EFL for Saturday 23/12/23

By Sporting Life
Football
Sat December 23, 2023 · 11M ago

Football betting tips: Saturday best bets

2pts Portsmouth win to nil vs Fleetwood at 7/5 (Unibet)

1.5pt Richarlison to score anytime in Tottenham vs Everton at 21/10 (bet365)

1pt Jon Rowe to score anytime in Norwich vs Huddersfield at 11/4 (bet365)

1pt Bailey-Tye Cadamarteri to score anytime in Sheff Wed vs Cardiff at 4/1 (bet365)

1pt Rotherham win-or-draw double chance vs Leicester at 9/2 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Summerville to assist Rutter and Rutter to assist Summerville in Leeds vs Ipswich at 80/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Leeds vs Ipswich

Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)

Ipswich's price for success looks a little generous here given the quality of both sides.

It's a game that genuinely could go either way though, so we're staying out of the result market in this huge contest at the top-end of the Sky Bet Championship.

Instead, in what could become pure chaos at times, I'm happy to gamble on the 80/1 for RUTTER TO ASSIST SUMMERVILLE AND SUMMERVILLE TO ASSIST RUTTER.

It's a massive price, naturally, but it is an interesting one given the partnership these two of them have.

They were an eye-catching duo anyway but the above stat further underlines the pair. Five of Rutter's nine assists this season have been for Summerville.

Summerville's 16 goal involvements already show us the huge impact he's having in this incredibly strong Leeds attack. Even with potential changes to shake things up, these two should keep their spots.

Tottenham vs Everton

Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

This should be a fun game. Tottenham games are always fun now.

Goals should be on the menu, but the price for a former Everton player finding the net appeals greatly, with RICHARLISON TO SCORE ANYTIME 21/10 here.

The Brazilian took a while to get going this season, but after taking a break to improve his mental health, he has come back firing.

Richarlison made cameo appearances against Manchester City and West Ham, but started against both Tottenham and Nottingham Forest, finding the net three times in the latter two contests.

Overall this season he is averaging 0.55 xG per 90 minutes, which is the most of all Spurs players, showing that when he is on the pitch he gets into good scoring positions regularly.

With his confidence back, playing a former team and leading the line for an attack-minded top four contender, Richarlison can add to his tally on Saturday.

Leicester vs Rotherham

James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)

Since their promotion from Sky Bet League One in 2022, ROTHERHAM have frustrated the division's big boys.

This campaign, they have held Leeds (1-1), Ipswich (2-2) and Southampton (1-1), that is three of the top four. It took a late Leicetser goal to split the sides when they met at the New York Stadium back in August.

Across those five fixtures, the Millers scored seven times from 12 shots on target.

Combine those results with the 1-0 win at Bramall Lane, 2-1 over Sunderland, four points from Middlesbrough, draws with Burnley, Luton and Coventry last term and a clear pattern emerges.

Siding with the visitors WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE is the bet, something that has clicked in 10 of the visitors 18 games with top six sides over the last two seasons.

It is an enormous punt but the Millers have proved to be the kryptonite of a few possession based, Championship juggernauts.

Norwich vs Huddersfield

James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)

Michael Bearmore ensured some E/W profit during last weekend's Old Farm Derby as 16/1 tout JON ROWE scored.

It wasn’t the first of the game but the Norwich youngster did find the net twice, so will come into this clash with a struggling Huddersfield side brimming with confidence.

At 11/4 TO SCORE ANYTIME, it’s difficult to believe the frontman is only four goals off the pace in the second tier’s Golden Boot race.

Rowe went into double figures for the season at Portman Road, a tally that dwarfs his team mates form.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff

Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

Full disclosure, I'm a Sheffield Wednesday fan. This season has been tough, but there is now real optimism around Hillsborough thanks to Danny Röhl.

The Owls are playing well and picking up results, winning three and drawing one of their last five contests. Across the last 12 league games Wednesday rank as the 11th best team according to underlying data (1.31 xGF, 1.17 xGA per game), so things really are improving.

Sheffield Wednesday manager Danny Rohl celebrates

They host a Cardiff team clearly heading in the wrong direction. The Bluebirds have lost four of their last five, and five of their last eight away, while on underlying data across the last 12 matches, they rank as the third worst team in the entire division (0.85 xGF, 1.56 xGA per game).

While I think a home win looks a solid bet, I've been enticed by a goalscorer price that looks extremely long given current form and the fact the hosts are likely to win.

Youngster BAILEY-TYE CADAMARTERI has been super sharp since becoming a starter five games ago, netting three times, but the bookies are still pricing him as a bench player, with 4/1 available for him TO SCORE ANYTIME simply too big.

He has averaged an impressive 0.38 xG per 90 in his admittedly small sample size of games as a professional, so will get a couple of decent chances in this game for a team heading in the right direction.

Michael Smith is the favourite to score for Sheffield Wednesday with most firms, but hasn't been in the squad in six of the last seven Owls games, while Lee Gregory is also shorter and hasn't been in the squad in all seven. Ashley Fletcher is also shorter and has played a combined 92 minutes in the last eight games.

Take advantage of the bookies being behind the pace on Wednesday's starting striker, who has shown a knack for finding the net.

Portsmouth vs Fleetwood

Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

League leaders Portsmouth have bounced back emphatically from their sole league defeat of the season against Blackpool, winning all four Sky Bet League One games without conceding.

On Saturday they host a struggling Fleetwood team, who have lost six straight in all competitions without scoring.

Portsmouth manager John Mousinho

Sometimes the obvious play is the best play to make, and PORTSMOUTH TO WIN TO NIL is generously priced at 7/5 despite the hosts being around 2/5 just to win the game. That's a hell of an increase.

Pompey boast the league's fourth best home underlying process, and have kept clean sheets in four of their five home games against teams in the bottom half this season.

Fleetwood, currently 20th, rank dead last in terms of defensive process when travelling, shipping 1.86 xGA per game, and their six-game goalless run has seen them average just 0.85 xGF per game.

Not ideal when heading to face the rampant champions-elect.

All Odds correct 1700 GMT (21/12/23)

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