Sporting Life
FA Cup TV best bets

Football tips, predictions and best bets: FA Cup first round TV tips

By Cameron Pope
Football
Sun November 05, 2023 · 1y ago

Football betting tips: FA Cup 1st round

1.5pts Over 2.5 goals in Bromley vs Blackpool at 20/23 (Betfair)

1pt Walsall to beat Sheppey United and BTTS at 13/8 (General)

1pt Elliot Lee to score anytime in Mansfield vs Wrexham at 7/2 (Betfair, Paddy's)

1pt Oliver Banks to score anytime in Chesterfield vs Portsmouth at 13/2 (Sky Bet)

1pt Nathaniel Mendez-Laing to score anytime in Crewe vs Derby at 14/5 (General)

0.5pts Cray Valley to beat Charlton at 18/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Charlton vs Cray Valley Paper Mills

Only a 12-minute drive separates Charlton and eighth-tier Cray Valley Paper Mills in a veritable plum draw for the part-timers.

Such games however have been a comfortable ride for the Addicks in recent seasons; this is the third time in a row they have begun their FA Cup campaign against a non-league opponent, dispatching Havant and Waterlooville 4-0 in 2021/22 and Coalville Town 4-1 last season.

The positional gap between the two neighbours is seismic, but the bookmakers may have got a little carried away with some of the odds they are offering – an upset is available at an eye-watering price of 18/1 and I am tempted by a small play on CRAY VALLEY TO WIN.

How often do we see these kind of dream results come off? Rarely. But another eighth-tier side, Sheppey United, were at a comparably paltry 17/2 to beat Walsall. Granted, the Saddlers are the visitors and they are a league below Charlton but to me that jump in price is not justifiable.

It is not a complete shot in the dark, either. The visitors have come through eight qualifying matches so far and have scored 24 goals on that run – the competition’s highest. Stranger things have happened and at that inflated price, why not?

Sheppey United vs Walsall

Eighth-tier Sheppey United are hoping to become the subject of this season’s FA Cup fairytale and the competition proper’s lowest-ranked entrant could certainly have drawn a tougher side than Walsall, 15th in Sky Bet League Two.

But the gap between part-time and professional should show on Friday night, as it usually does; no side from the eighth step made the first round last season, but five of six seventh-tier teams fell at the first hurdle.

The Saddlers could use a win after three games without, but they have no issue finding the net, hitting nine goals in four. But their issue is conceding and that steers me towards WALSALL TO WIN BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE.

Walsall are without a clean sheet in six matches, managing just one in 11, which suggests a cherished goal for the underdogs in an overwhelmingly likely loss is the way to go.

Bromley vs Blackpool

Blackpool's Jordan Rhodes has been in fine scoring form of late

Bromley haven’t made the second round of the FA Cup in 78 years and while a Sky Bet League One promotion hopeful was a far from ideal opponent to draw, Blackpool will be wary of a side who sit third in the National League.

And the Seasiders have good reason to be on their guard; Bromley have won their last eight home games in all competitions and average over 2.5 goals per game on that run.

The League One side’s form on the road leaves much to be desired, with just two wins picked up in their last nine fixtures.

As far as the result is concerned, anything is possible. However, opting for OVER 2.5 GOALS looks like a smart option given both sides’ attacking prowess.

This is a punt that would have landed in four of Bromley’s last five games (and all of their last four at home), as well as in seven of Blackpool’s last eight.

Mansfield vs Wrexham

Mansfield’s mammoth unbeaten run came to an end on Tuesday night at home to Port Vale in the Carabao Cup, ending a 20-match streak just as they prepare for the visit of their League Two promotion rivals on Sunday.

With fourth hosting third, this is set to be one of the most tightly contested ties in the first round – indeed, the pair played out a 0-0 draw when they met at the One Call Stadium a month ago.

Wrexham's Elliot Lee

There is little value to be found in results-based betting, but ELLIOT LEE TO SCORE ANYTIME is an attractive angle.

The midfielder is in prolific form, netting in three of Wrexham’s last four games and leading the team for the season with ten in all competitions, or one every 140 minutes.

And fear not: he can do it from the bench. Rested for the league win over Sutton at the weekend, he came on to add an 89th-minute winner, so if Phil Parkinson opts to rest him on Sunday, he is still a good bet from the sidelines at 7/2, compared to four-goal Paul Mullin’s odds of 9/4.

Chesterfield vs Portsmouth

The National League’s strongest force meets the highest-ranked side in the field as Portsmouth head to Chesterfield on Sunday.

These are two sides who are not used to losing; Chesterfield’s defeat at Altrincham back in August is the only time either team has been beaten in the league this term.

The non-leaguers’ chances may depend on how seriously the Sky Bet League One leaders take this tie, with a return to the Championship the clear priority this season as the chasing pack wait to pounce on the slightest Pompey slip.

The Spireites, FA Cup semi-finalists in 1997, are spearheaded by a certain Will Grigg of cult fame. While the ex-Wigan striker is firing well in the National League, another lesser-known talent is making a name for himself in the background and I’m looking at OLIVER BANKS TO SCORE ANYTIME.

He is no up-and-coming young gun; the 31-year-old journeyman has plied his trade all across the third and fourth tiers and is currently on red hot form, netting four in Chesterfield’s last three.

Chesterfield's Oliver Banks

Banks will be difficult to overlook for such a key fixture, but has not been given due consideration by the bookmakers with an anytime goalscorer market-leading price of 13/2, compared to Grigg’s 5/2.

In a side with nothing to lose in a game that is hard to call, Banks to find the net is as good a call as any.

Crewe vs Derby

Crewe’s start to the League Two season has been promising, as has Derby’s in the division above. Both are in the running for the play-offs and their formbook has a generous helping of wins mixed in with the odd blot.

Derby trounced Northampton 4-0 on Tuesday and victory will have been especially sweet for Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, who capped off the rout with his third goal in as many games. There is scant value elsewhere, so backing NATHANIEL MENDEZ-LAING TO SCORE ANYTIME at 14/5 is my preferred angle.

Both sides have their sights set firmly on gaining promotion this term and a potentially tricky tie against an opponent in good shape could be seen as a hindrance, but the former Cardiff and Sheffield Wednesday man is in the goalscoring rhythm and punters could do far worse at that price.

All odds correct at 1530 (02/11/23)

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