Football tips and nap: Saturday Seven acca selections
It's the final Saturday of the season with a full fixture list - Michael Beardmore picks out his top tips for your 3pm accas including a 3/1 best bet.
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Football betting tips: Saturday best bet
1pt Leyton Orient to beat Stockport at 3/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Sky Bet League Two champions LEYTON ORIENT won at the ridiculous price of 5/1 at Mansfield in midweek despite a red card and are being disrespected again by the bookmakers here. Title winners should not be these kind of prices full stop.
Yes, they are already up but they have the best home record in the fourth tier – the pressure is all on fourth-placed Stockport here while Orient can play with freedom and have won five of their last seven including against three fellow top-seven sides.
Nottingham Forest did win at home to Brighton in midweek to escape the Premier League relegation places but their away form is simply abysmal – 12 defeats in 16 including the last six straight.
BRENTFORD have been strong at home all season, averaging 1.88 xGF (Expected Goals For) per home game which is bad news for a Forest defence averaging 2.03xGA (Expected Goals Against) away.
SWANSEA are the Sky Bet Championship’s form horses, winning six and drawing one of their last seven to give themselves an outside chance of a play-off place. They have exceeded 1.5 xGF in seven of their last eight and are firing on all cylinders.
Thus, 23/20 on them continuing that run at a Hull side with little to play for, having won just three in their last 14 and with a poor xG process of -15.9 xGD (Expected Goal Difference), looks a nice price.
Reading, quite frankly, have fallen apart – a six-point deduction and 11-game winless run, including six defeats, plunging them into the Championship relegation zone. Chances have dried up too – in that run, they've exceeded 1.00 xGF just once.
Bottom side WIGAN still have a glimmer of hope of survival after three wins in their last six – of the two sides they boast the better form and are a decent boost for any acca at 9/5.
A couple of home bankers in Sky Bet League One, starting with PETERBOROUGH, who have won six of their past nine to spark hopes of pinching a play-off spot. Visitors Bristol Rovers have pretty much been rolling over for anyone who needs points recently, losing 10 of their past 17.
PLYMOUTH’s home form has been the bedrock of their title tilt and they can seal promotion to the Championship by beating Burton. A tally of 19 wins in 22 at Home Park tells its own story and Burton’s record away to the top nine teams – i.e. the ones who’ve had a chance of promotion – reads zero wins, one draw, seven losses.
AFC Wimbledon have been awful in 2023 – two wins in 21 League Two games and 12 defeats. The Dons have been lucky the bottom two are so poor they’ve not been dragged into danger.
TRANMERE have beaten top-seven sides Leyton Orient, Salford and Stevenage during that timeframe and are worth chancing at 9/4 if you want an acca long shot that should arguably be shorter.
Odds correct 1300 BST (27/04/23)
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