Finland vs England betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Nations League
1pt Ollie Watkins to score anytime at 8/5 (bet365)
1pt Over 3.5 cards at 23/20 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
BuildABet @ 7/1
- Watkins to score anytime
- 40+ booking points
- England to win
- Over 1.5 goals
- Both teams to score: No
When Jude Bellingham appeared from nowhere to steer home a 20-yard strike, England looked as though they were about to escape from Wembley having somehow avoided defeat despite an utterly desperate performance.
It was all bad.
Had Greece's players shown even a modicum of composure on the counter attack it would have been game over long before Bellingham's equaliser. So when utterly comical England defending deep in stoppage time presented a second goal for Vangelis Pavlidis, justice was done.
Whether it was brave or stupid of Lee Carsley to play without a recognised striker, instead experimenting with Bellingham, Phil Foden and Cole Palmer all in the middle, before being given the permanent manager's job is certainly up for debate.
The fact he finished with two up front gives a strong hint that it's not a mistake he'll make again, despite bullishly claiming he sort of would...
What are the best bets?
It was Harry Kane's absence that ultimately laid the foundations for the shambolic performance against Greece, and although the England captain could return on Sunday evening, Carsley's cautious approach to player injuries suggests it's highly unlikely he'll start.
Instead, we should back OLLIE WATKINS TO SCORE ANYTIME at 8/5.
Watkins came off the bench to famous effect at the Euros and was again used as a substitute on Thursday along with Dominic Solanke.
Finland put on an obdurate showing at Wembley last month, but couldn't stop Kane from getting on the end of multiple opportunities, eventually scoring his 67th and 68th international goals on what was his 100th appearance.
Watkins won't get many chances to start for England, but given his record of 33 goals for club and country across this season and last, we should back him to take this one.
Expect a response
Luckily for Lee Carsley, he's inherited (at least for now) a very good England team, with a very good away record, about to play a very average team.
The Three Lions are currently on their best away run for 10 years, unbeaten in six matches (W4 D2). Finland, world-ranked 64th, have lost their last three, including a home defeat by the Republic of Ireland on Thursday.
There is nothing in any 1X2 or goals-related market worth getting onside, but expect an England response in terms of the intensity they bring to the game, making cards a viable play.
An inferior opponent is often willing to try any trick in the book to gain an advantage, while also being more likely to react unfavourably if the game gets away from them, particularly on home soil.
In England's three Nations League fixtures there have been seven, one and six bookings, making the 23/20 about OVER 3.5 CARDS with Betfair and Paddy Power feel generous.
A handful of bookies are going as long as 10/11 but many are much shorter.
Team news
Harry Kane remains a huge doubt for England with Dominic Solanke or Ollie Watkins expected to come in.
Jack Grealish is again unlikely to feature, while Bukayo Saka suffered a hamstring injury against Greece which could mean a start for Noni Madueke. Angel Gomes, Conor Gallacher, Kyle Walker and Marc Guehi are all pushing to start too.
Finland have no new injury issues but could recall all-time leading scorer Teemu Pukki after Joel Pohjanpalo started in his place against Ireland.
Predicted line-ups
Finland: Hradecky; Stahl, Hoskonen, Ivanov, Uronen; Schuller, Peltola; Lod, Kamara, Antman; Pukki.
England: Pickford; Walker, Guehi, Colwill, Lewis; Rice, Gallagher; Palmer, Bellingham, Gordon; Watkins.
Match facts
- Finland will host England for the first time since October 2000 - a goalless draw in a World Cup qualifier. The Finns have drawn two of their last three home games with the Three Lions (L1).
- England are unbeaten in each of their previous 12 meetings with Finland (W10 D2), the joint-most they have faced a nation without ever suffering defeat (level with Bulgaria – P12 W8 D4).
- Finland have only lost two of their 10 home games in the UEFA Nations League (W6 D2), although one of those did come last time out against the Republic of Ireland (1-2).
- England have lost two of their last four competitive fixtures (W2), more defeats than they suffered across their 20 previous such games (W12 D7 L1) – eight of the Three Lions’ last 11 competitive losses have come in the UEFA Nations League.
- Finland have lost each of their last three games (all in the UEFA Nations League) and could lose four in a row for the first time since March 2016.
- England are unbeaten in their last six away games in all competitions (W4 D2), last having a longer such run between March 2013 and October 2015 (12 in a row).
- Finland’s Joel Pohjanpalo has scored six goals in his last eight home international starts, including last time out against the Republic of Ireland – each of the striker’s last six goals for his country have come at the Helsinki Olympic Stadium.
- Jude Bellingham has been directly involved in eight goals in his last 12 England appearances (5 goals, 3 assists); since the start of 2023 only Harry Kane (15) has scored more goals for the Three Lions than the Real Madrid man (5 – level with Bukayo Saka).
Odds correct at 1520 BST (11/10/24)
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