FA Cup first round betting tips: The potential upsets and shocks backed to happen
Football betting tips: FA Cup, Sunday
1pt Boreham Wood to beat Leyton Orient (14:00) at 9/1 (General)
It's that time of year again, one of the best weekends on the football calendar.
The FA Cup first round welcomes sides from League One and League Two as they join the 32 non-league clubs who successfully navigated the various stages of the qualification process.
The draw didn't disappoint, even if some of the TV picks might have (Harrogate vs Wrexham? Seriously, grow up). Kettering's trip to Northampton delivered great scenes in their clubhouse when the tie was announced.
Tonbridge Angels v Harborough Town is a particularly eye-catching one for the sole reason that it means one of those sides will be in the second round. Add Hednesford Town v Gainsborough Trinity to this category as well.
Some significant changes to the competition have been made this season, most notably the scrapping of replays from this stage onwards. A huge blow for a few clubs who will now miss out on serious paydays further down the line.
The final will now take place on the penultimate weekend of the Premier League season, making it an 'exclusive Saturday' with no top-flight fixtures played on that day. Gather the family round a small television set like the GOOD OLD DAYS.
As much as we love an FA Cup upset, it is seemingly becoming increasingly difficult for teams to do so. Just four non-league teams reached the third round last season, with three in 22/23 and four the campaign before that.
As I've done for the past few years, this piece will aim to pick out a few bigger-priced selections that could progress though. After all, ten non-league teams were present in the second round of the 23/24 edition.
I'll chuck in the usual disclaimer here that we have to be prepared that one or two could go wrong given the nature of the column - ultimately you may be backing a group of players to beat another despite them playing their regular football three divisions apart.
Some of the pricing this season is rubbish. I did want Scarborough away at Burton yet it's 9/2 on a side sitting mid-table in the National League North to beat one in League One, regardless of how much they've struggled, that's just ridiculously short when you think about it.
Hopefully, here's a few other options which have proven to be good value.
Boreham Wood vs Leyton Orient
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 13/2 | Draw 4/1 | Away 2/7
It's a shame this contest wasn't selected for TV. Boreham Wood - now in the National League South - welcome a Leyton Orient side who are struggling in League One.
There's a huge range of prices available on this game, but I have interest in the 9/1 for a BOREHAM WOOD WIN, with 13/2 the lowest I'd take at this stage.
It was 11/1 in places early on Wednesday morning but the value is still there given home advantage for the Wood.
The main reason I'm siding with the hosts here? Luke Garrard is back at the club. He departed after a nine-year spell at the end of last season but returned in September to help the club get their promotion push back on track.
Since his return, Boreham Wood have lost just one of their eight games with him at the helm - five of those have ended in victory.
Under Garrard, the club enjoyed some brilliant FA Cup runs. The 22/23 campaign saw them reach the third round before losing in a replay to Accrington and they made the fifth round in 21/22 which included an away win over Bournemouth.
Bizarrely, each of the past three seasons have seen Boreham Wood facing Eastleigh in the first round proper, so they'll enjoy actually coming up against a different opponent for once.
They have a manager though who can clearly motivate his players when it comes to the cup runs. Each person has their own method - the Cowley's were known for it at Lincoln - and Garrard must have a method for these sorts of matches.
With five defeats from seven away league matches this season, I'll take Boreham Wood to pile more misery on Leyton Orient at a big price.
Tamworth vs Huddersfield
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Friday
- TV: BBC Two
- Home 19/4 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/9
This is more like it when it comes to the TV selections.
Tamworth of the National League welcome League One outfit Huddersfield and there should be some confidence to the home side after they've turned things around following a slow start to the campaign.
Six of their last ten in all competitions have ended in victory, making the 11/2 available on a TAMWORTH WIN worth investigating.
A 7-0 thrashing by Barnet could have been the catalyst behind this run, even if they had a win registered before that. This was a side who boasted a remarkable defensive record on their way to the National League North title last season, conceding just 29 goals over 46 games.
Stepping up a league can be brutal and the tally stands at 27 against in 16 outings yet the form has been there in home contests - the last seven in all competitions delivering five wins, a draw and a 2-1 defeat to Altrincham.
Michael Duff typically puts out strong sides in this competition but three of Huddersfield's last five away games in England's third tier have ended in defeat. In fact, five of their last seven on the road in both cup and league have been losses.
I'd consider this one of the riskier picks of the bunch given Huddersfield's potential as a top-end League One side. At the prices though, it's worth a little go.
Newport vs Peterborough
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 19/4 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/9
I'm absolutely convinced I've watched at least one Newport FA Cup game every season for the past seven or so.
That's probably a great sign for a club in the lower parts of the Football League pyramid though. They often make the third round stage and get a great opponent to test themselves against.
Michael Flynn oversaw plenty of those runs, Graham Coughlan oversaw a meeting with Manchester United at the end of January, so here's hoping Nelson Jardim can keep up the tradition as we're taking the 5s on a NEWPORT WIN.
Peterborough are their first round opponent and their season so far has been one of frustration. A side used to being in the play-off mix already trail that area by five points with inconsistent form across the opening months.
It's a strong attack once again but defensively they've had issues restricting chances to their opponents. They've also failed to win any of their six games against those in the top seven.
Now that may not be too much of an issue against a team from the league below yet away games at Wigan have ended in defeat while they were also held to a 2-2 draw by Leyton Orient.
Leaky defences are hopefully a way into finding some potential cup upsets and only two sides have scored more in home contests in League Two this season.
The price is big enough for me to take a risk.
Wycombe vs York
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 3/10 | Draw 19/5 | Away 13/2
Two sides who are performing well in their respective leagues but, as expected, it is Wycombe who are clear favourites when they host York on Saturday.
The Chairboys sit second in the League One table with a home record that boasts five wins from six games, yet York top the National League after 16 games with just one defeat from their first 16.
At near 10/1, I'll have a go on YORK TO WIN this one.
No side boasts a better defensive record than the Minstermen in England's fifth tier so far, with just nine goals conceded and nine clean sheets on their record.
This will of course be tested at Wycombe yet they can have some confidence of a result given the strong returns at the back. Keeping it tight is often a successful route when aiming to cause a shock.
Wanderers were also beaten 2-0 at home by Morecambe in the second round last season so there is recent form of an upset. Perhaps we can factor in the 1-0 home loss to Sutton in the Carabao Cup too.
A point of interest is also Wycombe's results against typically high possession teams. They may have beaten Burton and Crawley but they were by single-goal margins - two teams struggling in this division. A 2-2 draw came at Blackpool alongside a home defeat to Birmingham.
Whether York can see a lot of the ball given the difference in leagues will be an interesting one but the price available makes them a pick worth backing.
Worthing vs Morecambe
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 5/2 | Draw 5/2 | Away 17/20
Morecambe are experiencing a really difficult season in League Two, although that's hardly a surprise when pre-season expectations were that this would be the case anyway.
Derek Adams' side sit bottom with just one win in 14 and a defensive record which has seen 25 goals conceded across that period. In terms of the underlying numbers for chances allowed, they are the worst by far.
It's hardly ideal travelling to a WORTHING outfit who have been strong once again in the National League South this season. They look good value at near 3/1 TO WIN.
Chris Agutter took charge in the summer following a campaign which guided Hastings United to a 7th placed finish at the level below and after 14 games with Worthing they sit 5th - particularly impressive when nine of those have been away.
Stadium improvements have now been finished and they've returned to Woodside Road - or the wonderfully named Sussex Transport Community Stadium to give it the sponsorship name - and that has delivered wins in each of their last three.
With a 12-hour round trip in store for Morecambe, I'll side with the home side to add another win to their tally.
Already advised
Friday
1pt Tamworth to beat Huddersfield (19:45) at 11/2 (General)
Saturday
1pt Newport to beat Peterborough (15:00) at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Worthing to beat Morecambe (15:00) at 14/5 (William Hill)
1pt York to beat Wycombe (15:00) at 19/2 (Betfair)
Odds correct at 1225 GMT (30/10/24)
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