Our Andy Schooler previews Friday's FA Cup third-round ties with goals tipped to be at a premium in the Liverpool v Everton TV game.
Liverpool v Everton (1955 GMT, BBC One)
Many Everton fans will see this as their biggest game of the season. After all, having surrendered meekly in the Europa League and been beaten by Chelsea in the Carabao Cup, this competition represents their final chance of silverware.
Whether Sam Allardyce sees if that way or not remains to be seen.
He’s hardly been the FA Cup’s biggest fan over the years. At least his team selections at a variety of clubs has suggested that’s the case.
Had Everton continued their resurgence under him over the festive period perhaps he would have been more enthused to go full pelt in this game but a paltry return of two points form a possible 12 (with only one goal scored) has left them still only seven points above the relegation zone. Essentially, there is still plenty of work to be done in the Premier League.
It would therefore be no surprise to see changes made, especially after such a hectic period. For starters, Michael Keane is definitely out with a cut foot.
Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp has suggested he’ll field as strong a side as possible, although he’s been forced to leave out Mohamed Salah and Philippe Coutinho due to injury.
Like Salah, Sadio Mane was in Ghana for the African Player of the Year awards on Thursday which at best is iffy preparation and surely suggests he won’t start here.
Roberto Firmino has also been carrying a knock so there appears every chance that none of the so-called Fab Four will play. That would be a major boost to the visitors, whose mentality when facing their arch rivals has often looked too negative.
Of course, Klopp left both Coutinho and Firmino out of his starting XI for the sides’ recent league meeting and paid the price as the stand-ins failed to take their chances and the game ended 1-1.
Everton lacked ambition that day and only scored following a daft challenge by Dejan Lovren in the penalty area. They have drawn a blank on five of their last nine visits to Anfield where they haven’t won since 1999.
More defensive tactics appear likely in this one from Everton and with at least some of their key forwards missing for the Reds it will be over to the likes of Adam Lallana, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Dominic Solanke to try to break their opposition down.
With this in mind, under 2.5 goals at odds-against looks a fair-enough bet – it’s delivered in five of the last seven Merseyside derbies.
In addition, while Everton have failed to win here in 19 years, they have often managed a draw, nine in fact. Eight of those have either been 1-1 or 0-0.
For those who think Everton’s improved defence can thwart their hosts, there are bets to be had in the man-of-the-match market.
Jonjoe Kenny claimed this prize at big odds last month and I’d suggest Ashley Williams (33/1) will contend if Everton’s rearguard refuses to bend again.
The Welshman has shown a remarkable upsurge in form since Allardyce’s arrival and could easily have pipped Kenny to the award last month.
Another to watch is James McCarthy. The Irish midfielder returned to action this week, starting at Bournemouth and coming on against Manchester United.
He make a significant impact in the latter match with his tough-tackling game shaking up his team-mates and helping spark a minor Everton revival.
There looks every chance he’ll start at Anfield and he’s very much the man for a 100mph derby battle. A repeat of his efforts v United over 70 or 80 minutes might be enough for him to land the MOM award at 40/1 – if Everton are able to claim some sort of result.
Prediction: Liverpool 0-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Manchester United v Derby (2000 GMT)
Bristol City recently took down the mighty United. Can their Sky Bet Championship counterparts repeat the trick here?
As the odds suggest, it’s unlikely.
Old Trafford is not Ashton Gate and United’s record at home to lower-league opponents is strong to say the least.
In terms of what went before, the post-Ferguson era has been pretty unsuccessful for the Red Devils but if there’s one area where a drop in standards has not affected results it is in home games against sides from the English Football League.
Post-Fergie, Norwich, Cambridge, Ipswich, Wigan and Reading have all lost by at least three goals without scoring themselves, while Sheffield United have also left having been beaten ‘to nil’.
Middlesbrough make it seven EFL sides in a row who have failed to score at Old Trafford, although they did manage a penalty shoot-out win in what is now the Carabao Cup.
A United win to nil here is offered at a best of 20/21 and will have its takers, even though Derby are flying high in the Championship – a run of seven wins and three draws in their last 11 having taken them to second in the table.
However, that has simply meant focus on league success is now total and boss Gary Rowett’s admission that it would be "silly not to freshen up one or two positions" in this clash is both depressing and sensible at the same time.
One of their star men, Joe Ledley, is a "big doubt" with a back injury, while ex-United man Tom Lawrence is also struggling to overcome a hip problem. At least loanee Sam Winnall can play for the Rams.
United will still be able to field a decent side, no matter what changes Jose Mourinho determines necessary.
Romelu Lukaku has recovered from his bang to the head against Southampton, while Marouane Fellaini is also fit again, so both look likely starters. Ashley Young, however, is suspended.
With United having returned to winning ways with an improved showing at Everton on Monday, expect them to notch a routine win.
Prediction: Man Utd 2-0 Derby (Sky Bet odds: 4/1)
Recommended bets
2pts under 2.5 goals in Liverpool v Everton at 11/10
0.5pt James McCarthy to be man of the match in Liverpool v Everton at 40/1
0.5pt Ashley Williams to be man of the match in Liverpool v Everton at 33/1
Posted at 2000 GMT on 04/01/18.