Tom Carnduff is backing Rochdale forward Ian Henderson as his best bet for the Sky Bet League One's side FA Cup fifth-round replay against Tottenham at Wembley.
- Kick-off time: 2005 GMT
- Venue: Wembley Stadium
- TV coverage: BT Sport 2
- Sky Bet odds: Tottenham (1/12), draw (11/1), Rochdale (28/1)
FA Cup recommended bets
1pt Ian Henderson to have 1+ shots on target at 11/8
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record.
It’s a date at Wembley for Sky Bet League One strugglers Rochdale as they travel to face Tottenham in an FA Cup fifth-round replay.
Steven Davies’ 93rd minute equaliser was enough to give Keith Hill’s side the draw after Harry Kane’s late penalty seemingly secured passage for Spurs.
Unsurprisingly, Spurs are 1/9 odds-on favourites for this one, with 12/1 the best price for the game to go past 90 minutes and Rochdale a huge 33/1 to cause a shock upset.
Tottenham are looking to extend their unbeaten run to 16 games in all competitions and it should be a straightforward night in front of their home crowd.
Mauricio Pochettino’s men came up against lower league opposition in the last round, and similar to Rochdale, League Two side Newport County forced a replay at Wembley.
Erik Lamela's strike alongside a Dan Butler own goal were enough to hand Spurs a 2-0 win on that day, and they’ll be hoping for another comfortable evening on Wednesday.
Despite the uphill task, Rochdale boss Keith Hill has said that "we have done our due diligence on Tottenham. We have got to focus on our own game plan and not get carried away with the occasion or the trip and focus on the processes we have to go through.
“We have to be better than we were against Tottenham a week ago."
They can approach the game with nothing to lose, the huge underdogs coming up against one of England’s Champions League contenders.
Ian Henderson struck in the first meeting between these two sides and he should be involved if Rochdale are to get opportunities in front of goal again in the replay.
He was Dale’s biggest threat in front of goal at Spotland, registering three shots in the contest, two of which were on target and one of those ending up in the back of the net.
With the betting as one-sided as this contest is, I’d be looking to Henderson as one to back on Wednesday night. Whilst a goal may be a tough ask at Wembley, the big stage provides the perfect opportunity for the 33-year-old to hit the headlines once again.
He’s also got six goals in the FA Cup this season, more than Manchester United’s Romelu Lukaku, Spurs star Kane and Leicester’s Kelechi Iheanacho have managed to achieve. Only Wigan’s Will Grigg has scored more in this competition this season.
Tottenham are also without central defensive duo Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld, significantly weakening their back line.
This is why I’m backing Ian Henderson to have 1+ shots on target at 11/8. It’s a big price for someone who will be a key figure for the visitors going forward, and he may be inclined to trying his luck more on the big stage.
Prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Rochdale (Sky Bet's odds: 12/1)
Posted at 1040 GMT on 28/02/18.
Opta statistics
- Spurs have won each of their last eight FA Cup replays, last being eliminated in 2007 to eventual winners Chelsea in the quarter-final stage.
- Rochdale have only taken a top-flight side to replay once in the FA Cup, drawing twice against Norwich in the 1976 third round, with Dale losing 2-1 in the second replay.
- Tottenham are unbeaten in their last 13 games in all competitions at Wembley since losing to West Ham in the fourth round of the EFL Cup (W11 D2).
- Rochdale will be visiting Wembley for the first time since May 2008 when facing Stockport in a fourth-tier play-off final, losing 2-3 to Stockport during Keith Hill’s first spell with the club.
- Mauricio Pochettino has never lost to a side from a lower division than the Premier League as a manager in English football (P19 W16 D3 L0).
- Dele Alli could be the first player in Spurs' history to score in the top-flight, League Cup, FA Cup and European Cup/Champions League in the same season.
- Ian Henderson has scored six goals in the FA Cup this season; only Will Grigg has bagged more (seven).
- Harry Kane has scored eight goals in his last six FA Cup games for Tottenham Hotspur.
Team news
Tottenham
Tottenham will be without central defenders Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld. Vertonghen misses out with an ankle injury but could return to face Huddersfield on Saturday, while Alderweireld remains on the sidelines with a hamstring problem.
Michel Vorm returns in goal while Kieran Trippier, Danny Rose, Harry Winks and Son Heung-min are also set to start.
Rochdale
Scott Wiseman, Billy Knott, Sam Hart and Mihai Dobre are all ineligible after joining the club in the January transfer window. Defenders Niall Canavan and Keith Keane are also expected to miss out having played just one game between them in 2018 due to injury.
Youngsters Daniel Adshead, Aaron Morley and Matty Gillam have been promoted to the senior squad for the clash.