Free football betting tips and odds: FA Cup fourth-round replays

Tottenham Hotspur v Newport County (Wednesday, 1945 GMT, BT Sport)

Back over 2.5 goals in the second half of Tottenham v Newport

The FA Cup fourth-round replays finish with Tottenham taking on Newport at Wembley on Wednesday evening. County of Sky Bet League Two nearly caused a huge upset in the clash between the teams at Rodney Parade but Harry Kane netted an 82nd-minute equaliser to secure a draw for the Premier League outfit. I don't see Spurs having as many problems in this return game but the majority of the action can still be expected after half-time. League One's AFC Wimbledon kept it goalless at Tottenham up until just after the hour-mark in the third round but Mauricio Pochettino's side then pulled away for a 3-0 win. That is the third time in their last five victories that Spurs have scored over 2.5 goals after the break and Sunday's 2-2 draw at Liverpool contained three goals in the second half. There's 2/1 available for over 2.5 goals to be scored after half-time and that is worth taking. Newport manager Michael Flynn says he will be "glad when it is out of the way" and Tottenham's attacking stars can make sure this is the end of the road for the underdogs.

Opta statistics

• Newport will be returning to Wembley for the first time since May 2013, when beating Wrexham 2-0 in the Conference play-off final – returning to the Football League for the first time since 1987-88.
• Tottenham have won all seven FA Cup matches at home against teams from the English fourth tier, scoring 38 goals (avg 5.4 goals per game). Although, Spurs needed a 97th minute winner from Heung-Min Son against Wycombe to progress to the fifth round last season.
• The Exiles have won just one of their seven FA Cup away games against top-flight opposition (D1 L5), a 3-1 win against Huddersfield in February 1949, also a fourth round replay.
• Tottenham have been taken to an FA Cup replay for the first time since January 2016 – winning each of the last seven FA Cup replays, last losing in March 2007 to Chelsea.
• Since losing to West Ham in the League Cup fourth round, Tottenham are unbeaten in their last 11 home games at Wembley (W9 D2), scoring 30 goals and conceding just six.
• In fact, Spurs have kept clean sheets in each of their last three home games in all competitions, they last kept four or more shutouts in September 2013 (six successive clean sheets).
• Harry Kane has scored seven goals in his last five FA Cup games including goals in each of his last three appearances.

Birmingham City v Huddersfield Town (Tuesday, 1945 GMT)

Back either team to win on penalties

I'm predicting a long night at St Andrew's so Huddersfield fans should be concerned about making their last train out of Birmingham New Street. That's a 2230 GMT departure, change at Manchester Piccadilly and back in Huddersfield for 0139 if all on time. The first match between these sides at the John Smith's Stadium ended in a 1-1 draw and that's the only one of their last five outings that the Terriers have avoided defeat. Birmingham, still scrapping for Sky Bet Championship survival, are on the up on a four-match unbeaten run and can provide Huddersfield with another tough test. Changes are expected to both starting line-ups and I recommend a small interest in this tie to go all the way to a penalty shoot-out.

Opta statistics

• Birmingham have only won one of their last five home games against Huddersfield (D1 L3), however this was in their most recent game at St. Andrew’s in April 2017, with goals from Jonathan Grounds and Craig Gardner.
• Birmingham are without a win in their last nine FA Cup home games against Premier League opposition (D2 L7), with their last victory coming against Blackburn in January 2004, winning 4-0.
• Huddersfield’s last six FA Cup replays on the road have seen 31 goals scored, with the Terriers scoring 11 and their opponents scoring 20 (avg. 5.2 goals per game).
• Birmingham have lost each of their last three FA Cup replays after winning five successive replays between 2006 and 2012.
• Huddersfield have won six of their last eight away FA Cup games against sides from a lower division (D1 L1).
• Sam Gallagher has found the back of the net in three of his last five home games for Birmingham (three goals), including the winner against Burton in the last round.

Rochdale v Millwall (Tuesday, 1945 GMT)

Back Millwall to beat Rochdale by one goal

Millwall manager Neil Harris has admitted his team's "mentality" wasn't right in the first hour of the 1-1 draw at home to Rochdale that led to Tuesday night's Spotland replay. I don't expect the Lions to make the same mistake twice especially with a potential fifth-round clash at home to Tottenham awaiting the winner. Millwall are impressing in the Sky Bet Championship with a six-match unbeaten run taking them well clear of relegation trouble. Rochdale are scrapping for survival one division lower in League One but boss Keith Hill has somewhat of a point when he says "we’re better than the results we had this season". A motivated Millwall are the better side in this tie but I'm going for a one-goal win to the Lions at close to 3/1 as Dale keep it close.

Opta statistics

• Millwall have won on two of their last three visits to Rochdale, although the most recent trip in March 2017 ended in a 3-3 draw.
• In fact, the last three matches between these two sides in all competitions have seen 15 goals, Millwall scoring seven and Rochdale scoring eight.
• Dale have conceded eight goals in their last two FA Cup games at home against teams from a higher division, losing 1-4 to Stoke and 0-4 against Huddersfield last season.
• However, the Lions have lost each of their last two FA Cup away games to lower league opposition by the same margins – 1-4 to Southend in 2014 and 0-4 to Bradford in 2015.
• Millwall are looking to reach the FA Cup fifth round for the fourth time in the last seven seasons; Blackburn are the only team currently outside the Premier League to achieve this on four occasions in that time period.

Swansea City v Notts County (Tuesday, 2005 GMT, BBC One)

Back Swansea to beat Notts County and both teams to score

BBC One viewers have Swansea's clash against Notts County to enjoy on Tuesday night. The Premier League Swans are big odds-on favourites for the victory but there's reason to believe that Sky Bet League Two promotion contenders County have a chance. Resurgent Swansea are going for a fourth home win in a row but there will be plenty of changes from boss Carlos Carvalhal, who has been hindered by Leroy Fer and Wilfried Bony being ruled out for the season. I'm keen on County to keep it close but I still expect Swansea to get the job done. The Magpies have scored in all bar two of their last 22 matches and the Swans have only kept a clean sheet in one of their previous seven outings. I'm going for Swansea to win and both teams to score so expect plenty of entertainment at the Liberty Stadium.

Opta statistics

• Swansea will be hosting Notts County for the first time since a League Two clash in December 2004, with Swans' favourite Lee Trundle netting a hat-trick in a 4-0 win.
• In the FA Cup, Swansea have met the Magpies just once at home, a third round victory in January 1934 when both teams were in the second tier of English football.
• Swansea have lost three of their last five FA Cup replays in which they have been the higher ranked side (W2), although they did beat Wolves in the last round, 2-1 in a third round replay.
• Notts County have only progressed from one of their last five FA Cup replays (W1 L4), last winning in a replay against Premier League opposition in February 2010, 2-0 v Wigan.
• Swansea have won three games in a row at the Liberty Stadium in all competitions for the first time since their final three Premier League home games of 2016-17. They last won four in a row at home in May 2016.
• Notts County have lost just one of their last seven games on the road in all competitions (W2 D4), including an FA Cup away win against Championship side Brentford in the third round.

Recommended bet:

2pts Over 2.5 goals in the second half of Tottenham v Newport at 2/1

Click here for our transparent tipping record.

Posted at 1055 GMT on 05/02/17.

Related links

• FA Cup odds
• Football fixtures