Sporting Life
FA Cup - fourth round shocks

FA Cup betting tips: Outsiders to back for shocks in fourth round

By Tom Carnduff
Football
Mon January 30, 2023 · 2y ago

Tom Carnduff had winners at 5/2 and 19/10 in his third round shocks piece. He's picked out four best bets for the next set of fixtures.

Football betting tips: FA Cup

1pt Walsall to beat Leicester at 17/2 (General)

1pt Derby to beat West Ham at 9/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1pt Preston/Draw (double chance) v Tottenham at 11/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Blackpool/Draw (double chance) v Southampton at 17/10 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Derby v West Ham

Derby are unbeaten in their last 14 games across all competitions - and if you want to focus on 90 minutes only - the run stretches to 19.

The appointment of Paul Warne is turning out to be as good as it looked on paper when the announcement was made. This is a talented squad returning results.

The Rams took Liverpool to penalties in the Carabao Cup and despite the hosts making a number of changes for the Anfield contest, some of the players emerging from the bench highlighted just how close they were to being knocked out.

Only Ipswich have posted a higher open play xG figure in Sky Bet League One this season, per Opta Analyst, while their efforts from set-pieces places them fifth in this metric.

As expected, the defensive numbers are good too and they will be full of confidence. The best price of 9/2 on DERBY TO WIN in Monday's solo game looks a good one.

Only a point separates West Ham and the Premier League's relegation zone. The 2-0 win over Everton last weekend was a much-needed one after weeks of seeing their opponents post the better quality chances.

Just how strong they opt to go in this one remains to be seen, but David Moyes may be tempted into more changes than their win in the last round given that was against a fellow Premier League side.

The form is with the home team here, who will be eager to get the better of top-flight opposition in front of the TV cameras.

Walsall v Leicester

Right, we're in a tricky situation here having backed Leicester as one of our tips in the outright preview.

I hate this tie for them though.

Having won just two of their first 11 league contests, Walsall have secured victory in eight of their 13 since - losing just twice across that run. They are one of the most in-form teams in Sky Bet League Two and would be well in the play-off mix had it not been for that slow start.

They're not exactly blowing up the underlying metrics, but the momentum is firmly with them heading into this contest and a likely changed Leicester backline should create problems.

As will set-pieces, with Walsall boasting the fifth-highest set play xG in League Two according to Opta Analyst. Combine that with Leicester having the fourth-worst set-piece xG in the Premier League and the mismatch is evident.

You can get a best price of 17/2 on WALSALL TO WIN with a few bookmakers, and that's value worth backing based on form.

The usual disclaimer that goes with this article being that, of course, this is a side in England's fourth tier facing one at the top of the pyramid. However, this is a winning team featuring in front of their own supporters.

The Foxes also had to settle for a narrow 1-0 win over struggling Gillingham in the last round - the club who were sat bottom of the entire Football League.

NINE Premier League sides were dumped out at the third round stage, we can expect more to follow this weekend.

Southampton v Blackpool

Southampton have experienced a good run in the Carabao Cup, and attention briefly turns back to the other domestic competition with the visit of Sky Bet Championship strugglers Blackpool.

The Tangerines sit 23rd in England's second-tier but they have recently acted by making a managerial switch, and it's a name well known to many supporters.

Mick McCarthy is in. The football won't be pretty but the aim is to be effective, and they could go strong in this one given that it is his first game at the helm.

I'm giving BLACKPOOL a chance here for a couple of reasons, but I'm also prepared that it could not go as planned given that this is a team who are second-bottom in the league below their opponents.

The first of which is hoping that McCarthy can get the instant impact he saw when taking the Cardiff job in January 2021.

At that stage, the Bluebirds were 15th in the table with less than half the season remaining. McCarthy guided them to eighth - nine points adrift of the play-offs. Had that appointment come a couple of weeks earlier, they may well have broken into the top-six.

They only lost three of their 22 matches under him in that campaign. It didn't work in the end, but Blackpool will absolutely take a record like that at this stage - starting with an FA Cup trip on Saturday.

Given that this fixture sits between Southampton's two Carabao Cup semi-final contests - which they still have a chance in despite a 1-0 defeat in the first leg - that could favour Blackpool with the Saints' focus likely to be on the midweek trip to St. James' Park.

While not totally sure what to actually expect from Blackpool under McCarthy, and with some element of preparation that this selection could backfire, I'm intrigued by their 17/10 price to be in the hat for the fifth round one way or another.

Preston v Tottenham

I don't really understand this Preston team, to be honest.

You don't know what you're going to get. One week they're conceding four, the next they seem to be scoring the same amount. From convincing defeats to comfortable victories.

It's a far cry from the team who drew 0-0 in five of their opening six league contests of the season (yes, that's not an error).

Perhaps it's issues with playing at Deepdale. Ryan Lowe's men sit 22nd in the home standings but second away - I'm clearly making a convincing argument as this game is being played in front of their own supporters.

The underlying numbers 'favour' home showings though. They've created 16.6 xG compared with 12.8 xG in contests on the road, with a perfect 14/14 split in their fixture list so far.

Preston are comfortably 'mid-table' in terms of chances allowed to their opponents, and Tottenham's struggles to find ways through against Portsmouth - despite starting both Son Heung-min and Harry Kane - will give the hosts hope.

There's some reluctance to take them in the outright market, but the 11/4 on PRESTON/DRAW double chance is attractive.

Another game where we're gambling on an uncertainty, but Spurs' recent performances hardly fill you with confidence.

Odds correct at 1130 GMT (25/01/23)

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