George Pitts expects Brighton to get caught up in the occasion when they face Man City in the first FA Cup semi-final on Saturday.
Recommended bets
1pt Over 1.5 goals in the first half at 27/20
1pt Glenn Murray 1+ shots on target at 11/10
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Man City v Brighton
- FA Cup semi-final at Wembley Stadium
- 17:30 BST kick-off on BBC One
The quadruple is still alive for Manchester City and they can get one hand on the FA Cup trophy by booking their place in the final this weekend.
The five-time winners, who came from two goals down in dramatic style against Swansea in the previous round, will fancy their chances of confirming a meeting with the winner of Watford or Wolves.
The chips are stacked against Brighton, whose 35,000+ fans will no doubt enjoy the occasion at Wembley regardless of the final outcome before probably securing Premier League survival.
Chris Hughton's side have not had an easy route to the last four, with extra-time against West Brom (after a replay) and a dramatic penalty shootout win over Millwall in the previous round after netting two late goals at the New Den.
Their reward was a tough draw with the tournament favourites and they will know it will take a big swing in their favour if they are to reach the May final.
Betting guide
Prediction: Man City 3-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
It's the business end of the season and Pep Guardiola has the strength in depth in his squad to book their place in the final. Brighton would need City to be seriously off their game to get a result and it is difficult to see this happening at Wembley, a ground where City have regular frequented in recent years.
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals in the first half at 27/20
City may have a much-changed team, but they have a group of players well versed in playing in the latter stages of competitions with high stakes. Their last four games in all competitions have seen at least two goals scored in the first half and Brighton players could get caught up in the occasion, something you cannot do against this City side. They have proven time and again to be quick starters and the price available on seeing goals in the first half makes it worth a small play.
Goals/Stats: Glenn Murray 1+ shots on target at 11/10
In games where one side is so heavily fancied by the bookies, it is always worth looking at the other side for value in the shots market. Glenn Murray is the Seagulls' top scorer this season with 13 goals in all competitions, with two vital strikes in the FA Cup. He averages over a shot per game in the league this term and should get the odd opportunity for Albion, so he can at least test Ederson (City's likely goalkeeper on the day) and this price has particular appeal. Another attractive option is on Aymeric Laporte, who had three efforts on goal against Cardiff in midweek, to get 1+ shots on target at 4/1, which is worth considering when he possesses such a threat from set pieces.
RequestABet: Man City to score 3+ goals and De Bruyne to score anytime at 3/1
Opta stats
- This will be the first meeting between Brighton and Manchester City in the FA Cup since January 1983, when the Seagulls won a fourth round tie en route to their only previous appearance in an FA Cup final.
- Brighton have only won one of their last 11 matches with Man City in all competitions (D3 L7), a 2-1 victory back in April 1989 in a second-tier clash.
- Manchester City have progressed from 10 of their previous 13 FA Cup semi-final appearances, including eight of the last nine. The Citizens have never lost back-to-back semi-finals in the competition.
- Brighton are winless in their four previous matches at Wembley stadium (D1 L3); should they fail to win, they will become just the fifth different side to win on none of their first five visits to the stadium in all competitions (Brentford, Leicester City, Middlesbrough and Shrewsbury Town).
- Manchester City have scored more FA Cup goals in 2018-19 than any other side (19). Indeed, they are looking to become the first side to score at least 20 times within a single campaign since Chelsea back in 2011-12 (20), and the first time the club has done so since 1980-81 (20).
- This will be Manchester City’s fourth match at Wembley in 2018-19 (W2 D1). Along with Chelsea (4) and Spurs (19), this will be the first time ever that three different club sides will play at least four games at the stadium within a single campaign.
- Each of Brighton’s four previous goals scored at Wembley have come via different players (Gordon Smith and Gary Stevens v Man Utd in 1983) and (Dean Wilkins & Dave Regis v Notts County in 1991).
- Sergio Aguero and Riyad Mahrez are looking to become the first Man City players to score in two separate games at Wembley Stadium within the same season since Yaya Toure scored in both the 2010-11 FA Cup semi-final and final.
- Brighton striker Jurgen Locadia has had a direct hand in five goals in his seven FA Cup appearances (three goals, two assists), including goals in his last two games.
- Man City have had nine different goalscorers in the FA Cup this season, last having 10 different players net at least once for them in the competition back in 2010-11, when they last lifted the trophy at Wembley.
Odds correct as of 1700 BST on 04/04/2019