Everton v Liverpool preview: Richard Jolly looks at Carlo Ancelotti's impressive stats as Toffees look to end Merseyside derby misery

Everton have made their best start to a season since the 1890s. Liverpool are on the longest unbeaten run in the history of the Merseyside derby. If something has to give on Saturday, the question is what?

Or, to put it another way, is Everton’s start sustainable or, before long, will they and Liverpool have swapped places? Early-season excellence can be deceptive and while Everton have ended one long barren run – their opening victory at Tottenham was their first away from home against big-six opponents since 2013 – a decade of draws and defeats in derbies indicate why their ambitions often go unrealised.

Changing that now would indicate a shift in their fortunes. The indications are that Carlo Ancelotti has already effected radical change in his team. Everton have 12 goals in four league games this season. They finished last with eight goals in their final 11 matches. They normally played 4-4-2 then. A switch to 4-3-3 has given them both more potency and more possession.

They averaged 49.0 percent of the ball last season; even within that, however, they had at least 58 percent of the ball in five of their first six games, when Marco Silva was still in charge. They ended the campaign with a majority share of it in just three of their final 13 matches. It reflected Ancelotti’s direct tactics and the breakdown of their midfield.

This season, however, after the arrival of Allan, Abdoulaye Doucoure and James Rodriguez, they are up to 54.5 percent of possession, behind only Chelsea and Manchester City. A pass completion rate of 78.0 percent, the 11th best, has gone up to 86.4 percent, again putting them third. Doucoure (89), Allan (87.3) and Rodriguez (87) all have higher pass completion rates than any midfielder or forward mustered at Goodison last season, as does Andre Gomes. Last year, eight teams completed more passes of medium distance; now only one has and Everton have the best completion rate, at 92.6 percent, of such passes. Last year, 12 teams had more touches in the middle third of the pitch; now only Liverpool have. Everton are playing through midfield more and improving their attack.

The difference Rodriguez has made is apparent. Last year, only Richarlison, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and the little-used Cenk Tosun averaged more than 1.3 shots per game. Now the Colombian is on 2.5, giving Everton a third goal threat in the team. His 3.0 key passes make him Everton’s most creative player and put him fifth in the league. One consequence is that, while Richarlison has moved from centre-forward to the left wing, he is averaging more shots per game.

Everton have gone from 4.08 shots on target to 5.50. Their finishing has been clinical, with 12 goals from 22 shots on target. Logically, they will not maintain a 22.6 percent chance conversion rate – their eventual figure last season was 9 percent - just as goalkeepers’ save percentage against them should rise from 45.5. But with an expected goals of 10.04, the second best, they are creating good chances. One constant is that, this season and last, they have the most chances from set-pieces.

They have demonstrated different forms of excellence. They are averaging 20 tackles a game, second only to Leeds, and a league-leading 15.3 interceptions; perhaps most remarkably Tom Davies has seven, even though he has only been on the pitch for 92 minutes. Allan is averaging 4.0 tackles per game – Morgan Schneiderlin was their leading midfielder last season with 2.1 – and 2.7 fouls, up on Gomes’ 2.0 in 2019-20. Combine each aspect and Everton are harder to play against. Those figures explain that, while Everton have conceded five goals, they have the best xGA, just 2.75, though that indicates that Jordan Pickford has underachieved.

One worrying omen for Saturday is that the one team with a higher xG is the one with the most shots: Liverpool. Another lies in their record. Liverpool are unbeaten in 22 derbies. The last three at Goodison Park have all finished 0-0: Everton had just 29.9 percent of possession in June’s stalemate and their last home goal against Liverpool came when Brendan Rodgers was still in charge. They have only had eight shots on target at home against Jurgen Klopp’s Reds.

Those 22 games have often been tight but have featured four emphatic wins: 3-0, 4-0, 4-0 and 5-2, in Silva’s last game, all at Anfield. Liverpool’s capacity to grow stronger as games have progressed is shown in four 90th-minute goals, plus others in the 89th and 87th minutes.

The combination of Everton’s start, Liverpool’s 7-2 defeat at Aston Villa and the absence of Alisson, who is yet to concede at Goodison, makes this arguably their second best chance to beat Klopp’s side: the best came in January’s FA Cup tie when Liverpool fielded a weakened team and Everton a full-strength one and Curtis Jones delivered a decider for the depleted hosts.

Perhaps it underlined the inferiority complex which can undermine Everton in derbies. It is a game when the facts and figures about form can be less relevant. But the numbers of Everton’s start suggest they are a team transformed and that, if they are unlikely to remain league leaders, a status among the top pack may be sustainable.

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