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Sporting Life's Premier League preview package and free tips
Sporting Life's Premier League preview package and free tips

Premier League tips: Betting previews, score predictions & best bets for Sunday's action - Everton v Liverpool, Aston Villa v Chelsea, Newcastle v Sheff Utd

By Joe Townsend
19:03 · SUN June 21, 2020

Betting previews, score predictions & best bets for Sunday's action, including Everton v Liverpool.

Recommended bets

2pts Everton v Liverpool under 1.5 goals at 100/30

1pt Newcastle v Sheffield United draw at 2/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Newcastle v Sheffield United

Sheffield United protest as Hawk Eye fails to award them a goal at Aston Villa

I know we're living in very strange times, and it can be difficult to predict how teams might perform following a midseason lay-off of more than three months, but before the shutdown this game screamed few goals, and it continues to do so now.

Only Liverpool (9) have a better defensive record away from home in the Premier League this season than Sheffield United (12), while no team has a worse goals scored record at home than Newcastle United (also 12).

But the Magpies have only let in a dozen, too. Unfortunately the Blades spoil our pursuit of a clean sweep of 12s, having scored 13 goals on their travels.

While that may ruin the symmetry, it doesn't change the argument. There would need to have been a seismic shift in philosophy at both St James' Park and Bramall Lane during the 100-day break for this to become a goalfest, and Sheffield United's performance in the Project Restart curtain raiser at Aston Villa, a drab 0-0, showed that hasn't happened. In fact, quite the opposite.

The Blades were much less creative, and far more cautious than they had been in their opening 28 games. There were few examples of the marauding, overlapping centre-backs for which Chris Wilder's side have earned so much praise during what has been a wonderful first season back in the top flight, and rather than press Villa into mistakes they were often content to stand off and sit deep.

Yes, they were robbed of a goal by a Hawk Eye technology failure, but the facts are that they managed just a solitary shot on target. The absence of key players Jack O'Connell and John Fleck, a lack of sharpness and match fitness, and a general trepidation over not losing the first match in unusual circumstances will have all played a part.

Despite not being at their best, Wilder's team yet again avoided defeat to extend their incredible run of form away from home and move up to a mightily impressive sixth. They have still only lost two matches on the road in the Premier League, and they were against Liverpool and Manchester City.

As a newly-promoted team, that is unheard of.

Steve Bruce's Newcastle and striker Joelinton (right) have struggled for goals this term

While he has not been lavished with the same praise as his opposite number, Steve Bruce has done a very impressive job in steering Newcastle comfortably clear of the relegation zone, an achievement built primarily on their form at St James' Park.

Only Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United have lost fewer than Newcastle's three home games this season, although what has prevented them from pushing up towards the upper echelons of the table, they currently sit 13th, is the fact that they have drawn almost half of the matches on their own patch.

Still, that is two fewer than Sheffield United's eight draws from 14 away games.

The Magpies have still managed to win four matches on the road this term, one of which was this game's reverse fixture back in December, when Bruce's team played the role of spoilers and successfully frustrated their opponents. They did get a helping hand from a very controversial VAR decision in that 2-0 win, but don't be surprised to see a similarly deep, defensive block, and possession stats mirroring the 27% of December 5.

Everything points towards a draw involving few or no goals. Newcastle's last three home matches in all competitions have ended 0-0, and I'm backing them make that four out of four.

Score prediction: Newcastle 0-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Best bet: Newcastle v Sheffield United draw at 2/1

Opta stats

  • Newcastle United have won their last four league games against Sheffield United, with their last defeat against the Blades coming in their last Premier League meeting at St James’ Park in November 2006 (0-1).
  • This is Sheffield United’s first away league visit to Newcastle since a Championship match in April 2010, losing 2-1.
  • In all competitions, Newcastle have won five of their last six home games against Sheffield United, losing the other in November 2006 in the Premier League. The Magpies have netted 14 goals across those five victories.
  • This will be just Newcastle’s second league match played in the month of June, with their other ending in a 2-4 defeat to Newport County in the second tier back in 1947.
  • Newcastle are the joint-lowest home scorers in the Premier League this season (12), and are yet to score more than twice in any of their 14 league games at St James’ Park this season.
  • Newcastle are looking to pick up back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since December, with one of their wins back then coming against Sheffield United.
  • Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six home Premier League games against promoted sides (W2 D3 L1), with the exception being a 1-2 loss against Wolves last season.
  • Though he hasn’t scored in six appearances since December, Jonjo Shelvey has scored more than twice as many Premier League goals as any other Newcastle player this season (5), with his five goals coming from just 10 shots on target.
  • Among the 41 teams Newcastle manager Steve Bruce has faced at least 10 times in his managerial career, only against QPR (73.3%) does he have a better win ratio than against former side Sheffield United (72.7%), winning eight of his 11 games against them.
  • Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder’s only previous visit to Newcastle came in a League Cup tie in August 2015, with his Northampton side losing 1-4.

Aston Villa v Chelsea

Aston Villa and Sheffield United players take a knee before the Premier League's first game of the restart

Although the opening game of the restarted Premier League campaign was far from a thriller, there was one major takeaway from it: Aston Villa looked much improved.

From being rudderless in defence and toothless in attack, they had a clear, organised shape at the back and some real bite up front. For a team who have let more goals in than anyone in the division to restrict a side in seventh to just one shot on target, and never look like conceding, was mightily impressive.

The major change Dean Smith made was using centre-half Ezri Konsa as a right-back, as well as protecting his back four with both Douglas Luiz and Conor Hourihane as holding midfielders.

He also had fit-again Keinan Davis, deputising for long-term injury absentee Wesley, as an attacking threat. He managed five attempts on goal, with two on target, and provided a vital contribution in both pressing from the front and offering a pacy option in behind.

The sum total was that Villa were a much more cohesive unit.

While Davis played a multi-faceted role, so too did centre-back Kortney Hause. Making only his 12th league start of the campaign, he won a staggering 11 aerial duals and had five attempts on goal.

If not for a superb performance by Sheffield United keeper Dean Henderson, he would have picked up a man of the match award and scored at least one goal. Despite going so close, he remains a 28/1 anytime goalscorer for the visit of Chelsea. He has scored only six times in 158 career appearances, might I add.

Despite Villa's terrible overall defensive record of 56 goals conceded in 29 league games, the goalless draw with the Blades provided their fifth clean sheet in 14 home matches. Not bad for the division's worst defenders.

But what doesn't bode well for Villa supporters is that in their eight meetings with the current top five so far this term, they have taken just one point from a possible 24.

Frank Lampard: Chelsea boss has blooded a young team this term

In terms of helping their away form, the break came at a nice time for Chelsea as they have not won any of their previous four away fixtures in the Premier League, with their most recent victory coming at Arsenal in the final knockings of 2019.

But three of those four matches have been draws, so it's not as though Frank Lampard's side have suddenly become useless on the road.

All in all, that form is what has actually put in them in such a strong position to qualify for next season's Champions League, having taken the same number of points (24) away from Stamford Bridge as on their own patch, despite playing one fewer game.

Tammy Abraham lifts the trophy to Aston Villa fans at Wembley

Chelsea were insatiable in the reverse fixture, with a 2-1 win belying their utter dominance in a match that saw them have 25 attempts on goal.

The axis of Tammy Abraham and Mason Mount, who both scored, was a defining feature that day and could well be once again as Abraham aims to get another one over on the team he won promotion with during a loan spell last season.

What is difficult to know, is whether he remains Lampard's first choice striker after Olivier Giroud forced himself back into the reckoning prior to the shutdown. I guess we'll know when the team sheets are in.

At the other end of the pitch, whether playing three or four at the back, the Blues have been vulnerable all season, particularly from set-pieces. Their 39 goals conceded is five more than any other current top-seven side - their six clean sheets is only one more than defensively porous Villa.

Given what looks like a new approach from Smith, I expect Aston Villa to make things far harder for Chelsea this time around. But I can't back either side to keep the other one out.

Chelsea should have enough, even against a Villa that showed against Sheffield United that they are determined to no longer be an easy touch.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bet: Tammy Abraham to score anytime at 5/6

Opta stats

  • Aston Villa have lost nine of their last 10 Premier League games against Chelsea, winning the other at Villa Park in March 2014.
  • Chelsea have won their last five league games against Aston Villa, their best winning run against the Villans.
  • Aston Villa have taken just two points from their last 63 available against ‘big six’ Premier League sides, (W0 D2 L19), drawing with Man City in November 2015, and with Man Utd this season.
  • Aston Villa have won on six of the seven days of the week in the Premier League this season, with the only exception being Sunday. A win here will see them become just the second team in top-flight history to win a match on all seven days of the week within a season, after Tottenham in 1986-87.
  • After a run of eight straight wins, Chelsea lost their last Premier League game against a side in the relegation zone, going down 1-3 at Everton in December. They’ve not lost consecutive such games since January 2011 (vs Birmingham and Wolves).
  • Chelsea haven’t won any of their four away Premier League games in 2020 (D3 L1), having won seven of their previous nine on the road (L2). They last had a longer winless run away from home between September-December 2015 (7 games).
  • As a player, Chelsea manager Frank Lampard won just four of his 16 Premier League visits to Villa Park (D8 L4). His last appearance there with Chelsea saw him score twice in a 2-1 victory to become the Blues’ all-time leading goalscorer.
  • Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud has scored in his last six games against Aston Villa in all competitions, netting eight goals; all appearances came while he was at Arsenal between 2013 and 2016.
  • Aston Villa keeper Pepe Reina has kept a clean sheet in 40% of his Premier League appearances against Chelsea (6/15). Of the 16 keepers to have faced the Blues at least 15 times in the competition, only Nigel Martyn has a better ratio against them (42% - 8/19).
  • Willian has scored in each of his last two games in all competitions for Chelsea, netting as many goals as he’d scored in his previous 23 for the Blues (2).

Everton v Liverpool

Liverpool's failure to beat Everton at Goodison last March proved decisive in the title race

Manchester City's emphatic win over Arsenal has taken some of the drama away from this meeting, meaning Liverpool can no longer be crowned champions with victory over their nearest rivals. That's not to say the match will hold any less importance on Merseyside, though.

Last season, Everton promoted a siege mentality prior to the Goodison Park showdown having highlighted the fixture as an opportunity to prevent the Reds from winning the Premier League title. And they delivered. A battling 0-0 draw proved decisive in the final shake-up.

While the Toffees won't have their home fans to roar them on, nor have the same carrot to motivate them, knowing they can at least delay Liverpool's coronation a little further should be motivation enough.

Carlo Ancelotti: Everton manager took a pay deferral during the shutdown

A few weeks before the shutdown it had been almost exclusively sweetness and light for Carlo Ancelotti since arriving at Goodison, with the only blot an FA Cup third-round defeat at Anfield, against a team of under-23 and reserve players.

But immediately before the three-month hiatus, the honeymoon period came to a grinding halt. Dreams of Champions League qualification quickly evaporated when Everton lost at Arsenal and Chelsea either side of a home draw with Manchester United, with the most recent defeat a 4-0 thrashing.

All in all though, there has been a stark improvement from the relegation-threatened first half of the season under Marco Silva.

No Everton fan needs to be told that it's almost a decade since their last league win over Liverpool, a run of 18 matches. What's most interesting about the recent, and most relevant, past is that these games tend to be very low scoring and usually end in draws.

The absence of supporters for a huge derby match certainly changes things but you'd still expect both teams to come out at a real intensity, to almost over-compensate for that absence of atmosphere.

Trent Alexander-Arnold takes a corner for Liverpool

Both Liverpool and Everton thrive on the use of full-backs as major attacking outlets, with Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andrew Robertson and Lucas Digne in particular marauding down the flanks. What that also leads to is blocks, deflections and the resulting corners.

Manchester City (237) are streaks ahead of the rest of the Premier League in the corner charts but Liverpool in third and Everton in fifth average 6.6 and 6.1 corners per game respectively.

With blocks a plenty, and players keen to get the ball into the area to try and force a goal in a tight encounter, I think those numbers will hold true, so 7/4 for 12+ total corners is tempting.

I do think Everton will make things difficult, but with Morgan Schneiderlin, Fabian Delph, Yerry Mina and Theo Walcott among their list of injured players I think it'll prove too much.

The Reds themselves are refusing to give an update on Mo Salah, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain or Robertson, though, so it could be that both sides are missing key players come kick-off. Even if that is the case, Jurgen Klopp's side have the resources to cope far better than their rivals.

Score prediction: Everton 0-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best bet: Under 1.5 goals at 100/30

Opta stats

  • Everton are winless in 18 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D10 L8) since a 2-0 win back in October 2010 at Goodison Park.
  • Six of the last seven Premier League meetings between Everton and Liverpool at Goodison Park have ended as draws, with Liverpool winning the other 1-0 in December 2016.
  • Everton have failed to score in their last three home league games against Liverpool, managing just 19 shots across those games. The Toffees last failed to score in four consecutive home games against their rivals back in April 1978 (six in a row).
  • In all competitions, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 21 games against Everton – only against Aston Villa (22 between 1981-1992) have they had a longer such run against an opponent.
  • Liverpool’s only previous competitive match played in June was their Champions League final victory over Spurs last season. Meanwhile, this will be Everton’s first ever competitive match in the month.
  • Everton are winless in three Premier League games (D1 L2), though they are unbeaten in seven at Goodison Park (W4 D3) since losing 0-2 against Norwich in November.
  • Liverpool have been behind at some point in each of their last three Premier League games, after a run of 15 straight games without trailing. The Reds last went behind in four consecutive league games between May-August 2016.
  • Liverpool’s Divock Origi has scored five goals in seven appearances against Everton in all competitions, netting a brace in the reverse Premier League fixture at Anfield. The last Reds player to score more than once in both Merseyside league derbies in a season was Dick Forshaw in 1925-26 (hat-trick at Anfield, two at Goodison).
  • Michael Keane and Richarlison scored Everton’s goals in their 2-5 defeat against Liverpool in the reverse fixture. The last Everton player to score home and away against Liverpool in the same league season was Andrei Kanchelskis in 1995-96.
  • Just two of Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah’s 16 Premier League goals this season have come in away games (12.5%). Of the 204 occasions of a player netting 15+ Premier League goals in a full campaign, the only player with a lower ratio of goals scored on the road was Cristiano Ronaldo in 2008-09 (11.1% - 2/18).

Odds correct as of 1700 BST on 19/06/20

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