Everton v Aston Villa tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Jake Pearson previews Everton's first match of the post-Rafa Benitez era, picking out his best bet for the visit of Steven Gerrard's Aston Villa.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt on the DRAW at 47/20 (Mansion Bet)
As the final whistle blew at Carrow Road last Saturday, it was hard to escape the feeling that Everton Football Club are at their lowest ebb in recent history.
The Rafael Benitez sacking was inevitable following a 2-1 defeat to a team who were, at the beginning of the match, bottom of the Premier League, but things have been rapidly disintegrating at Goodison Park for the last few months.
Everton have collected just five points from their last 12 matches, the lowest in the league. Had the season started a month later, the Toffees would be bottom of the division and five points adrift of safety.
Duncan Ferguson has been appointed caretaker manager and will take responsibility for the upcoming fixtures, including this one against Aston Villa.
Should Everton follow Villa's model?
It is perhaps fitting that Everton’s first game since Benitez’ dismissal is against Villa, a team who were also unhappy with the direction they were heading under their previous manager (Dean Smith), but who put together a clear plan of action and appointed Steven Gerrard.
Gerrard has by no means been an unqualified success, Villa after all have won just one of their last six, but, in the appointment itself, as well as statement signings such as Phillipe Coutinho and Lucas Digne, the intentions are clear.
In fact, again there is an element of appropriateness in these two meeting a week after Digne swapped Merseyside for Villa Park, while Anwar El Ghazi made the switch in the opposite direction; no disrespect to the Dutchman, but the message from both clubs is obvious following those respective pieces of business.
It is still early days in terms of Villa’s new hierarchy though, and it is important not to get carried away, good intentions are worth nothing when it comes to the league table and results need to pick up again.
Indeed, for all the catastrophising at Goodison, and the general good feeling at Villa, these two are only separated by four points, and Everton have a game in hand over Gerrard’s men.
Can Ferguson galvanise the players?
Win this and their game in hand and Everton would actually leapfrog Villa in the league, and who would put that past Ferguson?
During his brief spell as caretaker manager in 2019 the former Everton and Scotland striker oversaw three Premier League matches, a 3-1 win over Chelsea followed by draws against Manchester United and Arsenal.
The players cannot fail to be galvanised by Ferguson’s enthusiasm, and in truth, the pieces do seem to be falling neatly into place. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is returning to full match fitness, while Richarlison, who suffered a calf-tear in mid-December, came off the bench to score against Norwich at the weekend.
In his first game in charge, Ferguson has at hand something that Benitez had not since the third game of the season, his two first-choice strikers fit.
Everton will certainly put up a fight in this fixture, but one thing Gerrard’s Villa cannot be accused of is shirking a challenge.
Defeats to Manchester City and Liverpool by a single-goal margin shows how determined this Villa side now are, while Gerrard will certainly feel aggrieved not to have won either of their recent meetings with Manchester United.
Although they needed two late goals to rescue a point at Old Trafford on Saturday, Villa recorded more possession, more completed passes, more shots, on and off target, as well as a higher expected goals (xG) total than Manchester United.
A point apiece makes appeal
This is a meeting of two sides at very different places in their development, but given the circumstances, the most likely outcome appears to be a DRAW.
Five of Everton’s last six matches have either been decided by a single-goal, or ended in a draw, while Chelsea are the only team since Gerrard’s appointment to beat Villa by more than a goal.
47/20 (3.35) is too big for the draw in this match, something a few bookmakers have already found out, initially pricing a stalemate at a similar price but having to cut the price more and more as the week has progressed.
The Betfair Exchange is currently showing a high liquidity as far as the draw betting is concerned, and all these factors considered, backing a tie looks the way to go in this fixture.
Everton v Aston Villa score prediction and best bets
- 1pt on the DRAW at 47/20 (Mansion Bet)
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1110 GMT (19/01/22)
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