Free betting tips and match previews: Europa League - Lincoln Red Imps v Rangers; Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Tottenham Hotspur
Rangers and Tottenham are in Europa League action on Thursday and Mark Stinchcombe picks out four best bets to back.
Recommended bets
1pt Rangers to win & Under 3.5 goals at Evens
1pt Tottenham to win to nil at Evens
1pt Over 3.5 goals in Bodo/Glimt v Zalgiris Vilnius at 4/5
1pt Viking to score 2+ goals v Aberdeen at Evens
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Lincoln Red Imps v Rangers
- 16:00 BST
1/10 Rangers head to Gibraltar to face Lincoln Red Imps in a battle for progress to the 3rd qualifying round. These qualifiers are a familiar setting for both sides with both having been involved in them for the previous three seasons.
As expected however, Lincoln are yet to make the competition proper where Rangers progression has increased season on season, from the group stages in 2018/19 to the round of 16 in the last renewal, hence the 1/10 odds.
Normally this would be a two legged fixture, but due to the worldwide situation, these matches have been reduced to one off ties so there needs to be an element of caution from the favourites in-order to avoid any major slip ups.
Given the odds it would be natural to assume Lincoln will try and keep things tight and frustrate Rangers for their best chance of progression. Indeed low scoring games are in keeping with Lincoln’s European ventures. Since 2015, they have played 19 European Qualifiers in the Europa and Champions League and 18 of them have finished under 3.5 goals (95%) at an average of just 2.21 goals per-game.
Meanwhile 13 of Rangers 18 Europa League qualifiers since their return to Europe in 2017 have seen under 3.5 goals (72%). They did beat fellow Gibraltar side St Joseph’s 4-0 away last season but all four of the goals came in the 2nd half including from Alfredo Morelos who will be missing here.
Last season's top scorer scored 14 goals in 17 games in the Europa League with 8 of those coming in the qualifiers. A 2-0/3-0 Rangers victory is envisaged here.
Best bet: Rangers & Under 3.5 goals at Evens
Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Tottenham
- 17:00 BST
A similar matchup to Rangers looks in store for Tottenham as they travel to Bulgaria to face Lokomotiv Plovdiv as 1/5 favourites. Currently 6th after five games in the Bulgarian First League, this will be their 2nd attempt in as many seasons at qualifying for the group stages having been defeated by Strasbourg in the 3rd round last year.
Looking at their output in bigger games it seems very difficult to see how they can hurt Spurs. In the last round versus Montenegro side Iskra, despite being 8/13 favourites, they only managed a 1-0 win courtesy of a 75th minute penalty. Against Strasbourg last season they lost both legs 1-0. They won the Bulgarian cup in July but that was on penalties after drawing 0-0 after extra-time. In the Super Cup final they won 1-0 with an 89th minute goal.
Tottenham had a really disappointing start to the season losing 1-0 at home to Everton. They were outshot 15-9 and given the negative post-match reaction it has seen Jose Mourinho’s odds for the next manager to leave chopped in half from 16/1 to 8/1.
No doubt there will be rotation but with the likes of Steven Bergwijn, Erik Lamela, Serge Aurier and Davinson Sanchez set to come in to the starting line-up, the quality will still be high.
Financially it will be imperative to secure qualification and given Mourinho’s tactical expertise, I’m expecting a professional job here with no risks taken.
So instead of backing Tottenham at 1/5, backing Tottenham to win to nil at Evens given Lokomotiv Plovdiv’s aforementioned struggles infront of goal looks the way to go.
Best bet: Tottenham to win to nil at Evens
Bodo/Glimt v Zalgiris Vilnius
- 17:00 BST
The juggernaut that is Norwegian side Bodo/Glimt roll in here at just 1/6 to beat Lithuanian outfit Zalgiris Vilnius. More on the juggernauts to come but starting with Zalgiris, who sit 2nd in the A Lyga after 16 games having scored 31 goals – 1.94 per-game.
Last season they finished 2nd having managed 67 goals – 2.39pg. They lost 27 goal top scorer Tomislav Kis in the off-season to Korean side Seongnam but kept hold of 15 goal Liviu Antal and Frenchman Hugo Videmont has stepped up to the plate with nine goals in 16 games this season.
It’s difficult to estimate their ability outside of Lithuania having only played three European games in the last two seasons but they scored in all three. I think there is potential for them to contribute to the scoring here.
For the juggernaut, where to begin? 13 points clear at the top of the Eliteserien, they are unbeaten having won 15 out of 17 games, scoring a mammoth 62 goals. It looks as though they can replicate it in Europe with their 1st round match a 6-1 win over ironically another Lithuanian team in Kauno Žalgiris, who are 3rd in the A Lyga just two points behind Vilnius.
It really is incredible the numbers they are posting, indeed their last three home games, they’ve scored six goals every time. They’re not wholly reliant on one or two players either. Playing a 4-3-3 the front three of Jens Hauge, Philip Zinckernagel and Kasper Junker have scored 15, 13 and eleven goals respectively and Ulrik Saltnes has contributed with eight from midfield.
Overall their matches have seen 4.89 goals per-game this season so it’s an easy decision to back over 3.5 goals at 4/5. This bet has won in 14 of their 18 games this season (78%).
Best bet: Over 3.5 goals at 4/5
Viking v Aberdeen
- 19:30 BST
Another Norwegian side Viking go into this match as 13/10 favourites and I like their chances here considering Aberdeen are still without top scorer from last season Sam Cosgrove.
After a slow start to the season where they lost five of their first eight games, Viking have found some form recently. Unbeaten in five, they’ve impressively beaten 2nd place Molde 3-2 then at the weekend went to 5th place Kristiansund and put five past them in a 5-3 victory.
Indeed across the last five games they’ve bagged 15 goals. Bar the 6-0 win as 1/11 shots over Faroe Islands side NSI in the previous round, the goals are not flowing for Aberdeen having only scored five in five league games; they look to be missing Cosgrove.
They have only lost one game, that came against Rangers. However in this one-off match where Sporting CP await the winners, I fancy Viking to take initiative given their goalscoring exploits and the Dons struggles.
However, rather than backing them to win given they have conceded more than they have scored this season (33 – 29), I’m looking at them to score two or more goals at a similar price as the win at 10/11. They’ve managed this seven times in their last nine games and really look to be on form at the moment.
They have been bigger odds than they are here on six occasions so this isn’t a match that should faze them. Veton Berisha is the main danger with eleven goals in 19 games this season and while moves abroad didn’t work out for him, he is clearly at home in Norway and has even scored against Belgium for the national side.
Best bet: Viking 2+ goals at Evens
Odds correct at 0900 BST (17/09/20)
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