Goals to be at a premium looks the best bet in Everton's Europa League qualifier on Thursday, says our Andy Schooler.
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Everton v Hajduk Split (2005 BST)
After a summer of spending at Everton, it’s hard to argue too much with three straight wins at the start of the season.
They’ve already beaten FK Ruzomberok in this competition, while on Saturday the Toffees opened their Premier League campaign with victory over Stoke. All three games have been won 1-0.
However, it’s also fair to say they remain in a period of transition with none of the performances featuring much sparkle.
They huffed and puffed to little effect against the Slovaks in the third qualifying round and could easily have conceded at home. On Saturday it took a good, late save from Jordan Pickford to earn the points.
The loss of Romelu Lukaku has taken pace out of their side and Ronald Koeman is still trying to find tactics which help them recover from that.
On Thursday they play host to Hajduk Split, a side who appear to represent a step up in class after Ruzomberok. The winners of the tie will progress to the group stage.
The Croatians have already beaten Levski Sofia and Brondby in the Europa League this season and currently sit second in their domestic league.
Further into their season, they have won six of nine games so far with their only defeat coming at the hands of Croatian league leaders Dinamo Zagreb.
That loss to their great rivals also came at a cost with star striker Marko Futacs – the Croatian league’s top scorer in 2016/17 – suffering a knee injury which has required surgery.
The former Portsmouth and Leicester forward will miss the tie in its entirety. In his place, Ante Erceg looks their biggest goal threat – he’s already scored three times in this competition this season.
Futacs’ absence is a boost for Everton, who themselves have an injury doubt up front in the shape of Sandro Ramirez.
Koeman says, rather vaguely, that he will "try to pick the best side to start the game" but it is worth remembering Everton head to Manchester City on Monday night so whether this match can be deemed top priority right now is open to question.
Their Dutch boss has experienced disappointment in Europa qualifying in the past – two seasons ago he saw his Southampton side beaten by Danes Midtjylland at this stage.
In fact English sides have struggled in the qualifying stages of this competition in recent times with West Ham (twice) and Hull also bowing out before the group stage in the last three seasons.
Hajduk can be backed at 11/2 to qualify over the two legs which doesn’t look the worst long shot around but they too have struggled to get over this hurdle – they’ve bowed out in Europa League qualifying in each of the last six seasons.
That’s enough to put me off opposing an Everton side yet to hit their straps.
However, there’s another market for the first leg which is of interest – and that’s to back under 2.5 goals at Goodison Park.
As already highlighted, each of Everton’s games this season has come in under the line, as have three of Hajduk’s four European ties, plus Friday night’s league victory.
Koeman was stressing the importance of a home clean sheet when he spoke to the media on Wednesday and with both sides missing key goal threats there is every chance defences are on top.
As was the case against Ruzomberok, the prices hint at a comfortable win for the better-known side but as Everton found out in the last round, there aren’t too many teams in the competition these days that aren’t at the very least well organised.
With under 2.5 on offer at odds-against, that looks the way to go here.
Prediction: Everton 1-0 Hajduk Split
Where to watch on TV: Not being shown in the UK
Posted at 2025 BST on 16/08/17.
Related links
Everton v Hajduk Split: Latest odds
Thursday's Europa League fixtures in full
Ben Linfoot's Daily Nap: 14/1 winner on Wednesday!