Euro 2024 Golden Boot tips, predictions, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
2.5pts Harry Kane to win the Golden Boot at 11/2 (General)
1.75pts e.w. Romelu Lukaku to win the Golden Boot at 18/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.75pt e.w. Hakan Calhanoglu to win the Golden Boot at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
0.5pt e.w. Xherdan Shaqiri to win the Golden Boot at 250/1 (Betway, Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4)
History has shown us the importance of getting your scoring done in the group stages if you want to secure the Golden Boot at the European Championship.
Cristiano Ronaldo's five goals for the prize in 2020 were scored in the first three games. Three of Patrik Schick's five were also in the group. David Villa had four group goals for the award in 2008.
Interestingly, Fernando Torres in 2012 is the only tournament top scorer to score in the final across the last 36 years. That said, he did only score three and won the award based on minutes.
Before we get into it properly, some notes for this award:
- Since 2008, the tie-breaker for the award is given to the player with the most assists.
- If two or more players have the same number of assists, it is given to the player who has played the fewest minutes.
How many goals are needed to win the Golden Boot?
Over the past five tournaments, the average total number of goals needed to win the Golden Boot has been 4.6.
In 2020, four goals would have secured place money. In 2016, it was three, as was the case in 2012 and 2008. Essentially, if you're looking for returns in the Golden Boot betting, you're looking for a player to score four.
If they go above that, they have a great chance of claiming the award.
We'll start by looking at a favourite but one who does present value given showings for both club and country.
Count on Kane
The general 11/2 odds on HARRY KANE TO WIN THE GOLDEN BOOT are good enough as a win-only selection.
Winner of the award at the 2018 World Cup, Kane also became England's all-time top goalscorer during the qualification campaign when he found the net from the spot against Italy.
His club campaign with Bayern delivered 44 goals from 45 appearances across all competitions, with the 12 assists well worth highlighting too.
The fact he does have a good track record with assists is important given the tie-breaker criteria for the award.
Eight of Kane's last ten competitive appearances for England have delivered at least a goal, with his presence on spot kicks further enhancing his chances of claiming the award.
It feels like a waste of time telling you what you likely already know about his prolific nature in front of goal. Back England's captain among the shorter price options in the market.
Ride with Rom
Elsewhere, it's a shame that this selection has shortened from the initial 25/1 available in May but ROMELU LUKAKU TO WIN THE GOLDEN BOOT is still more than good enough at 18s.
Belgium's main man had a remarkable qualifying campaign, netting a staggering 14 goals as they reached the tournament. In 114 international appearances, Lukaku has 83 goals.
Belgium's more than winnable group containing Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine will also present the striker with plenty of opportunities to score.
Like Kane, Lukaku's recent international form has been another positive factor - he found the net in seven of the eight qualification outings.
Another penalty taker, one or two from the spot could be crucial in the race for the Golden Boot.
Have a punt on Hakan
I couldn't write this preview without going for big-priced outsiders, and the 150/1 for HAKAN CALHANOGLU TO WIN THE GOLDEN BOOT is an interesting one.
He isn't a forward, but Calhanoglu is the man who takes everything for Türkiye, so it's a surprise to see that he didn't find the net in qualifying.
Arda Güler's presence in attacking midfield pushes Calhanoglu a little deeper but he has no issue in finding the net from range. After all, he netted 13 times in 32 Serie A appearances for Inter this season.
The penalty spot is a big reason as to why, yet there were more than enough efforts throughout the course of the campaign to offer encouragement of a few goals for his country at the tournament.
The contest with Georgia represents his best chance to get goals on his tally but there is every chance one comes in the contests with Czechia and Portugal.
The 150s available is across the board, so it's best taking the 1/5 each-way odds for the first five places with either Betfair, Paddy Power or Sky Bet for this pick.
Longshot Shaqiri
I'm hoping XHERDAN SHAQIRI can replicate Dominic Solanke in returning some profit as a 250/1 shot in this tournament, with a small stakes play on the Switzerland winger my final selection.
He finished the last European Championship with three goals as they reached the quarter-finals, while he scored twice across their final four qualification matches.
Shaqiri is another penalty taker with direct set-piece involvement too. They may be in a group with Germany, but games against Hungary and Scotland are good chances to find some goals.
Progress from there is expected, and finishing as the runners-up in the group sets up a likely meeting with either Croatia or Italy. Four games gives us an edge in terms of the fewest minutes played criteria providing he gets enough goals.
Odds correct at 1200 BST (06/06/24)
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