Euro 2020 betting tips: Knockout stage best bets and outright preview
After tipping up both Italy and Spain in his antepost Euro 2020 outright betting preview, Jake Pearson assesses the standings after the group stage and previews the remainder of the tournament, with two sides getting special mention.
Twenty-four teams lined up and eight have bitten the dust, leaving us with 16 nations vying to become the champions of Europe. In terms of backing a team outright from here on in, options are slim, or to be more specific, prices are.
For that reason, and as someone who backed both Italy and Spain antepost - which hopefully plenty of you followed - from a personal perspective, I will be keeping my money in my pocket in this market.
If Italy and Spain weren't still well in the hunt? Two teams really stick out in the betting.
Euro 2020 Winner (odds via Sky Bet)
- France - 4/1
- England - 6/1
- Italy - 6/1
- Germany - 13/2
- Spain - 15/2
- Belgium - 8/1
- Netherlands - 9/1
- Portugal - 14/1
- Denmark - 18/1
- Sweden - 40/1
Odds correct at 11:53 (24/06/21)
Denmark and Netherlands offer value
One team available at a big price are Denmark, with a best price of 20/1 to win it, which can be taken each-way at 1/2 odds for them to reach the final.
Given they don't have the toughest last 16 match (against Wales), they could be worth a small each-way bet.
The way the draw has split has left Denmark with a far easier route than if they'd actually won their group, and their side of the draw is certainly the one to focus on.
Should the Danes beat Wales, they will face the winner of Netherlands v Czech Republic, and given how strongly fancied Frank de Boer's men are to cruise past Tomas Soucek and co, they are also of interest.
The Dutch have surprised many with their performances in the group stage, topping Group C with nine points, and while defensively they still look incredibly suspect, they have been exciting going forward.
The disparity between their 9/1 price and those at the top of the market, particularly considering one of only Belgium, Portugal, Italy or France can make it to the final as per the draw, looks a bit too big.
Best way to profit for rest of Euros
When I'm not actually putting any points up, I should probably give a bit more explanation (and advice) as to why - rather than just it being because I have Italy and Spain in the running.
The issue is, the maths just doesn't stack up.
Taking France’s outright price of 4/1 as an example, you would simply be better off backing them at every stage to qualify and rolling over your profits. That is true for almost all teams.
A four-fold containing four even-money shots pays 15/1, so any team shorter than 15/1, that is not going to be long odds-on to win every match from here on in, which no team is, does not represent value in the outright market.
You will almost certainly return a higher amount of profit betting this way than betting on the outright market.
Are Italy still worth backing?
Short answer - no.
While Italy have been incredibly impressive in the tournament thus far, they have yet to face off against one of Europe’s elite teams, so there are still some questions yet to be answered, and in all good consciousness, it is difficult to make a huge case for them being as short as 6/1.
They been arguably the best team at Euro 2020 thus far, though, topping their group with nine points and all without conceding a goal.
Defensively they are solid, even having played just under two matches without captain Giorgio Chiellini, but it is the midfield three that deserve all the plaudits for Italy’s magnificent beginning to the tournament.
Spain still a strong tip
Spain were tipped up at 9/1 in our outright preview, and though their current price of 17/2 is only marginally shorter, they are still a strong runner.
Despite Spain's lack of attacking thrust in their first two matches, at least in terms of goals scored, they actually recorded an expected goals tally of 9.7 during the group stage, the most of any side in the tournament, and there is a sense, particularly after their hammering of Slovakia, that there could well be more to come from the two-time European champions.
They finally arrived at the tournament with that 5-0 win, and Luis Enrique's side will fancy their chances against Croatia.
Should they get past them, though, the tournament gets incredibly difficult with potentially France, then either of Belgium, Portugal or Italy waiting in the wings.
But Spain have created chance after chance in this tournament, and started to take them against Slovakia. They continue be a forced to be reckoned with.
Should I back England to win Euro 2020?
Pre-tournament second favourites England initially saw their price drift to 19/2 after winning Group D, having been as short as 9/2 before a ball was kicked, but the results in the two final groups, namely Sweden finishing top of Group E, has seen the Three Lions cut into 13/2 second favourites.
Though their current price is bigger than pre-tournament, despite having fewer obstacles to overcome, it is too short to warrant siding with Gareth Southgate's men, I would say 19/2 is what we would need for this to be value.
You can back England at a boosted 7/1 with Sky Bet - something that is worthy of consideration for the more patriotic among us.
My advice? Cheer them on as a fan and keep your money in your pocket.
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