Joe Townsend previews Finland against Belgium in Euro 2020 Group B, picking out a best bet, with the Finns tipped to park the bus in Saint Petersburg.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Finland v Belgium
2pts Belgium win to nil at 10/11 (General)
Finland and Belgium meet in what is surely the biggest mismatch of Euro 2020 - certainly in terms of world rankings anyway, with world number 54 taking on world number one.
The Belgians are safely through to the round of 16 already, clinching their spot with a come-from-behind win over Denmark on Thursday.
Finland, meanwhile, in no small part thanks to the decision to resume their opening match with the Danes in questionable circumstances, a game they subsequently won 1-0, are on the verge of a place in the knockout stage too.
Realistically, the only scenario in which Finland don't qualify from Group B as one of the tournament's best third-placed teams is via a heavy defeat in Russia's second city. They surely go to Saint Petersburg to defend.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
TV channel: BBC One
Venue: Gazprom Arena - Saint Petersburg, Russia
Finland 10/1 | Draw 17/4 | Belgium 2/7
With Belgium head coach Roberto Martinez expected to make several changes to his team, backing unders alongside a Red Devils victory feels like a sensible play.
But while making changes for a final group game would make most teams weaker almost by definition, as evidenced by Martinez's side's stunning second-half comeback in Copenhagen, it is not as simple as that for Belgium at the moment.
Belgian stars to return
Nursing captain and talisman Eden Hazard, world-class Kevin De Bruyne and midfield pivot Axel Witsel back from injury has given their start to the tournament something of a pre-season feel.
All three were introduced against Denmark, and all three made a significant impact - especially Hazard and the match-winning De Bruyne.
Now expected to come into the XI for some much-needed minutes, this will be no weakened team, which has me leaning slightly away from the 10/11 on offer for Belgium/under 3.5 goals.
I do suspect a 2-0 Belgium victory is the most likely result - so do the bookies, as it's the shortest-priced scoreline in the correct score market - but the Red Devils' penchant for dishing out a beating to lower-ranked nations makes me a little wary.
Since the last World Cup, Belarus, Wales, Denmark, Iceland, Cyprus, Russia (twice), Scotland and San Marino (twice) have all been beaten with the 3.5 goals line breached.
During their run to the last four in 2018, Japan and Tunisia were vanquished in the same circumstances.
BELGIUM WIN TO NIL is available at the same general offering and in my book is a safer bet, given Finland's general lack of quality and consistent low goalscoring.
Undoubtedly there will be the odd moment of worry given the shakiness the Belgians have demonstrated defensively in their opening two fixtures, especially during their win over Denmark (xG: DEN 2.24 - 0.76 BEL).
But with Witsel's likely return, and against a weaker opponent who will be set on limiting damage rather than causing any, I'm happy to back them to record a second clean sheet from three games en route to victory.
Finland v Belgium best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Belgium win to nil at 10/11 (General)
Score prediction: Finland 0-2 Belgium (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (18/06/21)
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