Erling Haaland: When will Manchester City striker break records?

Erling Haaland has scored four times in two league games (as well as twice more in a Champions League tie against Copenhagen) since we asked the question 'how many goals will Haaland score this season?' so unsurprisingly projections have changed slightly already.

The Norwegian has racked up 15 league goals in just nine games, meaning he needs a further 18 to break the 38-game season scoring record currently held by Mohamed Salah (32) and a further 20 from 29 to eclipse the 42-game season record jointly-held by Andrew Cole and Alan Shearer.

Haaland's debut campaign in England is already displaying all the hallmarks of becoming ridiculous in terms of its record-breaking nature, leaving us mainly asking the question of when not if for both those landmarks.

How do we calculate how many goals a player can be EXPECTED to score?

Without a crystal ball, it is impossible to accurately predict how many goals Haaland will score from now until the end of the season. However, we can make a solid estimation based on the data.

We calculate Manchester City are expected 72.5 goals over the remaining 29 matches. With City averaging 2.50 xGF per game and Haaland's 1.08 xG/95, we can work out the percentage share of the chances the Norwegian gets on the end of at 43%.

Now we have that percentage, we can calculate the most likely number of goals Haaland is expected to score for the remainder of the season, by taking the number of goals City are expected to score (72.5) and multiplying it by our percentage in decimal form (0.43) to get 31.2.

How many goals will Haaland score?

There are just a few more calculations to be made, ones which will hopefully make the projections more accurate.

It is unlikely that Haaland will play in every minute of every City game, whether that be that he gets rested from the start or is taken off early to preserve energy, and injuries are a possibility.

If we reduced minutes played by 15 per game to account for this fact, we get a final xG total for Haaland between now and the end of the season of 28.2.

So, the most likely number of goals the Norwegian will score over the remainder of the season is roughly 28. That would take his season tally to an insane 43 goals.

However, as said before, we don't have mystical powers that allow us to look into the future, so we can't say "Haaland will score 28 goals in the City's remaining 29 games".

Instead, we need to look at the different number of goals he can possibly score, along with the percentage chance of him scoring each number of goals.

The above chart gives you the opportunity to see the percentage chance Haaland has of scoring (x) number of goals over the remainder of the season. To calculate his final tally, simply add 15, the number he has already scored, to the y-axis.

So, we calculate a 97.2% chance that he scores 18 times and breaks the 38-game season record and a 93.2% chance of scoring a further 20 times and breaking the 42-game season record.

It's a 68.6% chance he finishes the campaign with 40 goals, a 32.3% chance of netting 45 and an 8.8% chance of hitting 50.

There is a 0.1% chance Haaland scores a further 45 goals and ends the campaign on 60 goals!

Sporting Life specials - Erling Haaland goals scored - currently on 15 (via Sky Bet)

• 1/4 - Haaland to score 35+ goals
• 5/4 - Haaland to score 40+ goals
• 5/2 - Haaland to score 42+ goals
• 7/1 - Haaland to score 45+ goals
• 20/1 - Haaland to score 50+ goals

Visit the market here (Odds correct at 1715 - 11/10/22)

If performing as expected, the 7/1 (12.5%) price Sky Bet are offering for Haaland to score 45+ goals still looks huge with the calculations suggesting the price should be closer to 21/10 (32.3%).

Over-performance can't be counted out

Now, here's where it gets even more interesting, because all of these calculations are based around Erling Haaland scoring at an expected rate, or in other words, he doesn't over-perform.

City's number nine is currently over-performing his xG by 66%, netting 15 from 9.06 xG. Now, that level of over-performance is highly unlikely to be repeated to the same extent over a full season, but we have seen players over-perform by around 40% over a whole campaign.

If we rework the figures based on a 40% xG over-performance from Haaland, we get some eye-watering numbers.

It's a 99.99% chance he breaks Salah's 32-goal record, a 99.5% chance he eclipses the 34-goal record, and a 99.0% chance he finishes the campaign with 40 goals.

There would be a 71.1% chance Haaland scores 50 goals, 39.4% he nets 55 and a 14.5% chance we witness a 60-goal campaign in the Premier League.

Now, those numbers look and sound simply ridiculous. We don't want to admit that something as staggering as a 50-goal season in the Premier League is even a distinct possibility.

But it really is, and here is why.

Yes, we are banking on an over-performance from Haaland, but the chance of him over-performing is greater than any other player because of the quality of chance he is consistently getting on the end of.

He has taken 38 shots this term, meaning his xG per shot is a huge 0.24. The Norwegian isn't simply shooting from distance and seeing the ball fly in the top corner all of the time.

Infogol defines a 'big chance' as a goal-scoring opportunity that has an xG of 0.35 or greater, and Haaland has so far been on the end of 15 such chances, meaning 40% of the shots Haaland has had have a 35% chance or greater of being converted.

It is those figures that make the over-performance a real possibility for Haaland.

When will Haaland break the records?

So those are the staggering numbers around how many we calculate Haaland will score, but when can the Norwegian break the records?

Unfortunately for you extremists, it won't be until after the World Cup. There are six games before the break, and even the most optimistic simulations don't have Haaland scoring the required 18 goals in that time.

If scoring at an expected rate, Haaland would surpass Salah's record in gamweek 27, which with the current schedule would be early March at home to West Ham.

He would break the 34-goal record two games later away at Southampton in early April.

If over-performing by a rate of 40%, Haaland would break the 32-goal record in gamweek 22, in early February against Aston Villa, edging past the 34-goal record in the game after, away at Nottingham Forest!

The fact we are even talking about these things and calculating the possibility shows just how incredibly well Haaland has started the season, and how him playing for this current Manchester City side is a match made in heaven.

Injuries are likely to be the only thing to hold him back, but given the way City don't play as stretched, as counter-attacking, as Dortmund should limit the long sprints of Haaland and help reduce those muscular injuries.

Also, no Norway at the World Cup means he will have a month to rest and recuperate, and you can bet your bottom dollar he will be chomping at the bit come Boxing Day to get back up and running.

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