Erik ten Hag or Antonio Conte to triumph in Manchester United v Tottenham?

Spurs are level on points with Manchester City yet nobody thinks they are playing particularly well, while United are on a four-match unbeaten run and within three points of the top four despite playing aimless, world-weary football.

Often two slightly incoherent teams produce an entertaining match defined by haphazard defending and messy shapes that are easy to dribble through, but unfortunately that will not be the case on Wednesday.

Erik ten Hag is at the beginning of a long process that has caution as its founding principle – start with the slow, choreographed shapes and build from there – while Antonio Conte’s tactical beliefs are all about risk-aversion.

The tactical pattern of this match is fairly simple to predict. Man Utd will hold most of the possession as Spurs sit back and defend their own half, and since Ten Hag’s side can’t seem to find any rhythm that should produce a stalemate, with Spurs slight favourites.

Don’t expect fireworks in the headline midweek game.

Ten Hag tentative in installing ideology

Man Utd are the most difficult to understand at the moment.

We always knew it would take a long time for Ten Hag’s complex ideas to take hold, and indeed there is little evidence so far of the choreographed high pressing or the automatisms (pre-set moves practiced in training) that will create elegant passing triangles mixed with Ajaxian verticality.

That’s fair enough, but one would have expected to see a few flashes by now, rather than the total absence of Ten Hag hallmarks.

Off the ball, United just aren’t going full pelt – or even half pelt – at the opposition, ranking 19th in the Premier League for pressures (983); 20th, by quite a distance, for pressures in the final third (190); and 19th for tackles attempted (136).

Their PPDA of 13.14 is the sixth highest, above the likes of even Aston Villa and Wolves.

When in possession, United sit mid-table on a number of metrics. Their xG of just 12.0 puts them 11th in the Premier League, although a more accurate measure of their coherence and fluidity is the progressive distance of their passes, which has United at 14th.

Both the off and on-the-ball issues are intimately related, and although injuries have not helped it seems like the problem lies deeper.

'Stodgy midfield'

The configuration and low quality of their central midfielders Scott McTominay and Fred is preventing any riskier or more intelligent forward passes, making everything sideways and predictable, while using both Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo limits how much pressing can be done.

Clearly, this kind of stodginess when in possession suits opponents Spurs, who have repeatedly shown they are very good at defending in their own half.

Conte’s idea is to sit deep and absorb pressure, drawing the opposition onto them before evading the press and counter-attacking quickly, and while it had been working relatively well – albeit creating dull matches with few chances – Dejan Kulusevski’s injury has stunted them.

Even before Kulusevski’s absence Spurs fans were worried by low-quality performances, and although we are perhaps unfairly judging Conte by a tactical aesthetic he is not trying to implement it remains questionable whether a midblock with minimal pressing can ever bring 90+ points in the modern game.

Territorial dominance, and an intricate plan for prising open a defence, is needed when the financial chasm between the ‘Big Six’ and the rest forces a team like Tottenham to dominate possession in most matches.

That won’t be a concern at Old Trafford, where Spurs can happily play the underdog.

Christian Eriksen is likely to again miss out because of illness and without him United are even more flat in possession, as we saw in the 0-0 draw with Newcastle United, which should create the perfect game for Conte: Spurs can defend resolutely in a low block, forcing Man Utd to keep the ball and recycle it over and over.

Even better news for Tottenham is that Kulusevski’s absence might not be felt so deeply.

Up until now, Tottenham have found their forwards disconnected from central midfield without Kulusevski, but the limited counter-pressing of Man Utd means there should be more space in transitional moments than usual, allowing the Spurs midfielders to pick out the runs of Richarlison and Heung-Min Son.

Casemiro v Kane a key battle

As has often been the case this season, United will be relying on individual performances to paper over the cracks.

That’s why the most important tactical battle on Wednesday evening is between Casemiro and Harry Kane, the latter dropping off the front line to play a crucial creative role in those transitional moments and the former tasked with stopping him.

Casemiro is the only elite central midfielder in the squad and he has the ability to make things difficult for Spurs, although on balance the Tottenham defenders ought to find enough time on the ball to go more direct with their passes into the wide forwards – bypassing Kane after he has dragged United defenders out of position.

Spurs should be considered favourites then, but it will still be a tight game with few chances.

On the whole, the pitch will be on lockdown, the hosts unable to find a way through and the visitors too deep to get behind the United defence. Ivan Perisic and Ryan Sessegnon, for example, will be pinned by Anthony and Jadon Sancho, yet the United pair won’t get enough help on the wings to create chances against a flat back five.

A 0-0 is definitely on the cards, and while nobody would enjoy that result it would, at least, provide a cleaner story – of a mini identity crisis – about both Man Utd and Tottenham, thus restoring order to a Premier League that cannot stomach nuance.

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