El Clasico betting tips: Barcelona v Real Madrid
With El Clasico taking centre stage in Spain this weekend, Jake Pearson casts his eye over the fixture, picking out a best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Barcelona v Real Madrid
1pt Barcelona to be shown the most cards at 5/4 (Unibet)
This season’s first edition of El Clasico will probably not go down in history as a clash of the titans, as many before have, but that does not take away from the importance of this particular meeting.
Neither Barcelona nor Real Madrid are in particularly good places at present, and though the situation at the Catalan club is far worse, it has detracted somewhat from the problems at the Santiago Bernabéu.
Barca are in financial meltdown, forced to release Lionel Messi, with senior players such as Jordi Alba, Sergio Busquets and Gerard Pique all taking voluntary pay cuts to keep the club afloat, but for all the catastrophising, and rightly so, a win on Sunday would see them overtake Real in the league.
Carlo Ancelotti’s second spell in charge of Los Blancos hasn’t exactly been the return he would have been dreaming of - an embarrassing defeat by Sheriff in the Champions League followed by a loss to Espanyol in La Liga meant Real went into the international break without a win in three.
Kick-off time: 15:15 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: La Liga TV
Barcelona 17/10 | Draw 13/5 | Real Madrid 29/20
A 5-0 hammering of Shakhtar Donetsk on Tuesday evening put them back on track though, and in truth, they remain just three points behind league leaders Real Sociedad with a game in hand.
In short, neither team are enduring quite as bad a season as people think they are, and in fact, Barcelona are four points better off than they were at this stage last season, while Real have accrued a point more.
There isn’t much to choose between the two in the betting, with Real shading favouritism slightly, and despite Ancelotti’s men arguably being the better of the two teams, Barca’s home record this season has been as impressive as ever, winning four of their five matches and creating a league-high of 2.54 Expected Goals For per game at Camp Nou, and that is enough reason to avoid the 1X2 market in this fixture.
Given this is the most fiercely contested match in Spain, it is certainly worth looking into the card betting but, at 4/7, Over 5.5 Cards is a big risk.
These two sides are not prolific in the card stats, both sides picking up 18 bookings this season, the joint-third lowest in the division, but things always heat up when these two juggernauts meet.
Last season, Barcelona averaged 1.89 cards per game, but against Real they picked up seven across the two meetings, while Real’s average of 1.58 cautions from last season was surpassed and then some as they were awarded five across both games.
There should be cards in this game, but more importantly, what we can take from this information, is that Barcelona tend to pick up more than Real.
In fact, only once in the past eight meetings have Real picked up more cards than Barcelona.
Given that, as well as the fact that Barcelona have averaged more tackles and more fouls than Real this season, it is a surprise to see both teams priced up at 5/4 apiece to be shown the most cards.
BARCELONA TO BE SHOWN THE MOST CARDS should be the favourite in this market, so a price of 5/4 is worth backing.
Barcelona v Real Madrid best bets and score prediction
- Barcelona to be shown the most cards at 5/4 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (22/10/21)
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