Football betting tips: Sky Bet EFL
2pts Plymouth to be relegated from the Championship at 11/2 (General)
1pt e.w. Barrow to win League Two at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/3 1-2)
1pt Colchester to finish in top half of League Two at 33/1 (BetVictor)
1pt Bristol City to finish in top six of the Championship at 16/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
1pt Cheltenham to finish in top half of League One at 16/1 (BetVictor)
We've seen plenty of fascinating storylines emerging from the Sky Bet EFL campaign so far, and with most teams seeing 20 games remaining, there will be more drama to come.
Leicester look set to smash the Championship points record, who wins the titles in League One and League Two remains very open, while a number of teams are vulnerable to the drop.
Even with the Foxes' seemingly insurmountable lead of the top of England's second tier, nothing is truly decided at this stage. There will always remain some uncertainty until mathematics plays its part.
And because of that, there's still some good 'outright' value available by looking across the three divisions.
Taking some risks at this stage - whether it be because of a new manager, certain signings or a change of system - can deliver some good rewards, with a few teams worth focusing on throughout the final part of the campaign.
Agony for Argyle?
I'm gambling on uncertainty here.
It's been a hectic few weeks for PLYMOUTH, so much so that I've taken some interest in the 11/2 on them TO BE RELEGATED.
The main departure has been their boss Steven Schumacher, who opted to take the role at Stoke. He's replaced by ex-England under-20s head coach Ian Foster - his first senior spell in English football.
He linked up with Steven Gerrard as his assistant at Saudi Professional League club Al-Ettifaq - departing for the vacancy at Argyle.
They then lost midfielders Finn Azaz and Luke Cundle after they were recalled from their loan spells. Azaz has since joined Middlesbrough on a permanent deal, Cundle is set to join Schumacher in Stoke.
There's also some talk surrounding Morgan Whittaker and his future, with rumoured interest in the 23-year-old forward who has scored 13 and assisted a further five this season.
They feel vulnerable following Sheffield Wednesday's revival and a slight upturn from Rotherham after a managerial change of their own. Birmingham should kick clear under Tony Mowbray.
All three relegation spots are still open. Argyle could be one of those to drop off.
Robins on the rise
I'm going to put up two bets in this section and I'm pairing them together because they share a nickname.
For reassurance, that's not the reason I'm involved with them both in terms of betting, but there is value available on these sides having strong finishes to the season.
Let's stay in the Championship, where the price on a BRISTOL CITY TOP SIX FINISH looks the most appealing of the options available.
It was a mixed start to the life at the club for Liam Manning, but a positive Christmas period has thrown them into the mix for a top six position.
Defeat to Cardiff in Nigel Pearson's last game left them 15th and five points adrift. They've shifted up to 11th and the gap stands at four points, but you've got to consider that the 'previous' table was after 14 games where it's far more compact.
Recent results indicate a team adapting to the way of playing under Manning. They've also beaten Hull, Sunderland and Watford across December - other sides who will be in the play-off mix.
Dropped points against Birmingham and Blackburn could have been wins based on the performances - there's a nice flexibility between being a low event side that can keep games tight and one who can create some attacking chaos.
A transition into a more possession-focused, patient out of it type side can frustrate the opposition and make them tough to play against.
They've perhaps crucially also played Leeds, Leicester and Southampton away, so those tricky ties in the latter part of the campaign will be at home at least.
With Sunderland at 15/8, Hull at 11/4, Middlesbrough at 14/5 and Coventry at 7/2, my interest comes in taking Bristol City to sneak a top six spot at 16/1.
From one Robins to another, as we drop down into League One and discuss a team in the relegation zone securing a spot in the top-12.
A wild shout, I know, but CHELTENHAM's form under Darrell Clarke has convinced me to take a gamble on the 16/1 for a TOP HALF FINISH.
They currently sit 22nd with 23 points on their tally - it's a nine-point gap between themselves and Leyton Orient who occupy 12th. The context of this bet is vital though.
I'm counting the loss at Lincoln in the pre-Clarke era because, while he had been announced, he officially started work on the Monday after.
At that stage, they sat bottom of the table after ten games. One point on their tally. ZERO goals scored. They were unable to find the net let alone win football matches.
Yet 15 games later, they've scored 19 and gained 23 points. It's a remarkable turnaround in that short period of time and they're gaining points at a rate of 1.38 per game - that would be enough for 52 over the course of a 46-game campaign.
The changed back-three system has given them a clear way of playing in the same base formation they had previously. They're now direct with purpose, a route into the forward line with surrounding support from elsewhere.
Will Goodwin provides the target while Liam Sercombe is now in a more advanced role - hardly a surprise to see him score twice in the recent win over current league leaders Portsmouth.
The second also came because of another crucial change, and that's how aggressive they have become out of possession. From passive to proactive - a serious shift in mentality.
The average needed for a top half finish across the last seven seasons has been around 61. Last season, it was 59. So we need that rate to jump up slightly but they've gained results against good teams.
Cheltenham have five trips to sides currently sat in the top seven but there's also a lot of home games against those eighth and below. In fact, they also have five away games to come against teams 16th or lower.
U's can do it!
Staying on the topic of relegation-threatened teams to finish in the top half.
In terms of going through sides with a fine-tooth comb this season, Colchester haven't exactly been top of my list. The appointment of the Cowley's certainly grabbed my attention though.
At a huge 33/1, I'll gamble on COLCHESTER closing the 13-point gap and finishing in the TOP HALF.
It's a big ask, of course, after all it's 33/1, but I like the fact that they will have a clear identity in their way of playing. It won't be pretty, but it's definitely shown that it can be effective.
The average points tally of the 12th-placed side across the last three seasons in League Two has been 60. In their final 19 games, Colchester will need to find roughly 36 points.
At this stage, there's not enough of a sample size to measure the managerial change at the club - their only game was a deserved 2-2 draw away at Swindon - but we can lean upon what we know of the duo in the dugout.
John Akinde and Tom Hopper give them options as a target in the attack, while the majority of January remaining allows more than enough time to get players in who they want.
There's always the potential that it goes the other way, but it's a big enough price to tempt me into the gamble at 33s.
For context on the price, Grimsby - sat two spots above and only three points ahead - find themselves at 13/2 in the market following a managerial change of their own. Doncaster, on 28 points, are 6/1.
Go Wild for Barrow
It seems like the League Two title race will be contested between Mansfield, Stockport and Wrexham...or will it?
Among the Hollywood talk and big budget battles, BARROW have thrown themselves into the mix as we go beyond the halfway stage.
You can get Pete Wild's side at 25/1 for the TITLE, which is a nice each-way play.
Despite sitting ninth in the home standings, they remain unbeaten in front of their own supporters. That makes them one of just two sides in the EFL to do so this season - the other being Leeds in the Championship.
The issue is turning those draws into wins, with the same amount of points gained on the road as they have done at home.
Wild's side have a clear way of playing. A direct approach and happy enough to be patient without the ball, they've proven to be a problem for opponents and are showing no signs of slowing down.
Three of their four defeats this season have been against those teams above them, but they still welcome Mansfield at home in April. They've also completed away trips to Crewe and the now rejuvenated MK Dons too.
Stockport's form has been iffy, with away trips to all sides currently in the bottom six potentially tricky given some managerial movement.
In case they fall short, second place also covers the each-way terms - a big enough price to make this the value pick.
Odds correct at 1625 GMT (08/01/24)
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