Tuesday night sees the massive Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich. Tom Carnduff has two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Borussia Dortmund to win at 3/1
1pt Achraf Hakimi to have 3+ tackles at 7/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich (17:30 BST, BT Sport 1)
Neither head coach will like to refer to this contest as a title decider, but an away victory would almost certainly wrap up yet another Bundesliga crown for Bayern Munich.
The current champions already hold a four-point lead over Dortmund going into Tuesday's meeting at Signal Iduna Park. Dortmund have continued to apply the pressure on this side of the winter break, but they are battling a Bayern side which oozes confidence under Hansi Flick's leadership.
The weekend saw differing types of victory for these two. Bayern put five past Eintracht Frankfurt while Dortmund were dragged into an ugly battle against Wolfsburg. Yet, despite sitting in awe of this Bayern attack on Saturday evening, I felt we gained more confidence from Dortmund's scrappy 2-0 scoreline earlier in the day.
In previous years, Dortmund would have lost that type of game. A physical opponent who were making it difficult for them to get going turned the contest into an attritional battle that perhaps demonstrated the maturity of this team - even after Mats Hummels was forced off with injury at half-time.
The problem for Dortmund was that they looked shaky without Hummels' presence in the back line. The confidence from the first 45 minutes was lost in the second. You can read more about that here. It wasn't just the defence that suffered, but so too did the entire team as it sent a sort of ripple effect throughout the squad.
The good news is that Lucien Favre hinted heavily on Monday morning that Hummels will retain his place in the starting XI. That reflects the reports that were emerging following that win on Saturday.
Without Hummels, Dortmund's chance of three points against his former side in Bayern is significantly reduced.
He seems to be the key that unlocks the full potential of this young, attacking Dortmund side. Again, it comes down to the issue of confidence. Hummels' presence has transformed a previously weak back line and they now boast five clean sheets in their last six outings.
There's a very good chance that they won't keep a clean sheet here as they face a Bayern side who are one of the best attacking outfits in Europe. They have scored in 26 of their 27 Bundesliga games this season, with RB Leipzig the lucky outfit who managed to keep them out.
I don't need to explain why there's value in the 1/3 price on both teams scoring on Tuesday night, the evidence is there for all to see, and the fact that nine of the last ten meetings between these two has seen over 2.5 goals sets this up to be a game that ticks the overs box once again.
Another positive for Dortmund is the likely return of Axel Witsel to the squad; another recent absentee through injury. His return, alongside a good 45 minutes for Emre Can, could see the hosts go back to their two preferred central midfield options - even with the positive job done by Thomas Delaney and Mahmoud Dahoud in previous outings.
Favre was giving nothing away on Jadon Sancho and his availability. The forward has made appearances from the bench in both games since the break, with the belief that they are allowing him to return as close to full fitness as possible for the meeting with Bayern.
There's no avoiding the subject that Sancho was a very poor performer when Bayern hammered Dortmund in their last meeting. The Bayern defence suffocated the space around him as soon as he got the ball, giving him no room to operate in and you'd imagine that they'd like to do the same if he is involved.
For that reason, I am slightly reluctant to back anything Sancho related in the stats markets despite his fantastic record in front of goal across the season. He lost the battle against Alphonso Davies that day and there's always a chance that it could happen again.
That side of the pitch will be key in this battle. Davies and Dortmund's Achraf Hakimi are known for being flying full-backs and will both try to utilise the space left by the other as they break forward. Both also scored for their respective teams at the weekend.
The best bet based around an individual involves Hakimi in the tackles market. While his efforts in contributing goals has been the stand-out element of his time at the club, his defensive contribution shouldn't be overlooked.
Backing Hakimi to have three or more successful tackles in this contest brings up a price of 7/4 which is more than appealing. He's hit that tally on nine separate occasions in the Bundesliga this season, five of which have come this side of the winter break.
But delving into the statistics show the type of games where these high number of tackles are coming from. He saw four in their home contest with Borussia Monchengladbach, while there were three against RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen - all three teams are in the top-five of the Bundesliga standings.
Even in their earlier meeting with Schalke, a 0-0 draw, Hakimi posted four successful tackles. At the time, Schalke were just two points behind Wolfsburg in fourth. There were also another three tackles in their recent meeting where Dortmund stormed to a 4-0 victory in the first game back following the break.
This game will have a significant impact on the title race and a Dortmund victory would benefit themselves and the remainder of the chasing pack. For Bayern, three points almost certainly means finishing top once again.
Bayern, despite their great record under Flick's leadership, do look too short at odds of 4/5 against a Dortmund side who have improved to a point where they now pose a serious threat to their dominance in Germany's top division. The last four meetings seeing two wins for each somewhat reflects that.
The double chance in Dortmund's favour can be found floating around the even money mark, but you won't find many games that have this talented side trading at a 3/1 price. It's worth backing the hosts; a team that have proven they are ready to take Bayern's crown.
Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Borussia Dortmund to win at 3/1
Best bet: Achraf Hakimi to have 3+ tackles at 7/4
Odds correct at 1130 BST (25/05/20)
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