Premier League relegation: Did Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield United deserve it?
For the first time in Premier League history, all three relegated teams have been confirmed with three games to play, as Fulham join West Brom and Sheffield United in dropping to the Sky Bet Championship after defeat against Burnley.
The three sides are obviously detached at the bottom of the table, but do they deserve to be in such a position based on underlying numbers?
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Sheffield United
It's hard to argue that a team doesn't deserve be relegated when they've lost 80% of their league games this season, so I won't.
Sheffield United's demise has been a sharp one, but it's worth mentioning that their underlying metrics were better than results suggest in the opening parts of the season.
The Blades entered matchday 18 with just two points to their name. A massive underperformance on attacking numbers was the main catalyst driving that appalling run of results.
Chris Wilder's side scored eight goals from chances equating to 17.5 xG during that period, a solid explanation behind their struggles.
Ultimately, United couldn't recover.
Club legend Wilder has since been replaced by Paul Heckingbottom, but the understandably demoralised Blades have performed terribly for the remainder of the campaign, breaching 1.0 xGF in just two of their next 18 matches.
Coupled with an average of 1.85 xGA per game this term, Sheffield United are deserving of relegation, ending the season bottom of Infogol's xG table.
West Brom
West Brom have put up a fight in recent weeks, but it was always going to be a tough ask to achieve safety for Sam Allardyce given the start the club made.
The Baggies were on course to be an historically poor Premier League side under previous manager Slaven Bilic, averaging 0.73 xGF and 2.10 xGA per game before the Croatian was removed from his post.
Allardyce had to make an immediate impact for a real possibility of survival. Unfortunately for West Brom, it took a little longer than what was required.
Of the teams relegated, West Brom have undoubtedly made the best effort to remain in the top-tier, gaining 14 points in their last 12 matches.
They've posted metrics worthy of a lower mid-table side in that time, too, holding a -2.8 expected goal difference.
Relegation is justified over the duration of the campaign, but, as the 10-match rolling xG graphic shows, the Baggies have improved under Allardyce.
Fulham
After giving themselves a chance of remaining in the Premier League with a solid mid-season stretch, Fulham have gained only one point across their last seven fixtures, denying the neutral end of season drama at the bottom of the table.
Scott Parker's side have created an average of 0.96 xGF per game in those matches, hardly the actions of a team deserving of safety.
Alongside their struggles in creating scoring opportunities, Fulham's conversion rate has been atrocious, scoring 25 goals from 41.4 xG this season.
Fulham have been afforded every opportunity to stay up according to their other metrics, allowing 56.3 expected goals against (xGA) — a better figure than five other teams in the league.
Alphonse Areola and an improving defence played a major part in outperforming those xGA numbers, too, conceding just 47 goals in 38 games.
The Cottagers sit 15th in Infogol's expected table, but a failure to capitalise on scoring chances leaves them with little defence when deliberating whether Fulham should still be in the Premier League, despite the underlying numbers.