Did England deserve to win Euro 2020? xG analysis of all seven games
England reached a first final since 1966, but football, after a 55-year wait, did not quite come home as they lost to Italy in a penalty shootout in the Euro 2020 final.
We look back on their journey to the final, and subsequent defeat by the Azzurri, highlighting a key data point from each match.
England 1-0 Croatia: Defence shows it’s strength
Raheem Sterling’s goal separated England and 2018 World Cup finalists Croatia in the Three Lions’ Euro 2020 opener, but it was the way in which Gareth Southgate’s side controlled the game that caught the eye.
They didn’t play gung-ho attacking football, and only took eight shots in the match, but they created the two best chances of the game (Sterling 51%, Kane 60%), with the England defensive shape most impressive.
Southgate opted for a 4-2-3-1 system that limited Croatia to just 0.54 xG. For perspective, that same Croatia team went on to rack up nearly 4.0 xG against semi-finalists Spain, so England stifled a team very capable of causing plenty of issues.
England 0-0 Scotland: Three Lions deserved to win
An emotion-fuelled match against the Auld Enemy was next up but it was a game that fizzled out after half-time. However, the reaction to England’s performance was overblown.
While the narrative was that Scotland were the better team, the xG figures told a completely different story, with it being England who created the better chances (xG: ENG 1.67 – 0.73 SCO).
Southgate’s men allowed no ‘big chances’ (0.35 xG+) while creating three of their own, with the Infogol model calculating that, based on the quality of chances created in the game, England would win the game 59% of the time.
The overreaction was unnecessary, as it was another solid performance, but one in which England were unfortunate not to win.
Czech Republic 0-1 England: Another controlled victory
England won their final group game to secure top spot in Group D, and deservedly so, with the Three Lions’ defence again being the driving force behind the success.
Sterling’s early goal was the best chance of the match, and after dominating the first half, England decided to shut up shop afterwards, showing no intention to attack.
Southgate’s side were happy with the 1-0, and failed to register a single shot in the second half, but again controlled the game impressively, conceding just two shots after the break.
The performance again came under criticism, but England had done what they had been expected to do – top the group – and they had done so without hitting top gear and without conceding a goal or a ‘big chance’ (0.35 xG+).
England 2-0 Germany: Good fortune for Three Lions
The painful memories of 1990, 1996 and 2010 were put to rest as England beat Germany in a major tournament knockout match for the first time since the Three Lions lifted the World Cup in 1966.
Gareth Southgate’s side mirrored Germany’s 3-4-3 system and while the narrative was that it was a tactical masterclass, the reality was that England were fortunate to win and do so comfortably.
The Germans posed the greater threat in the first half and pierced England’s backline a fair few times, with Timo Werner (34%) racing through and testing Jordan Pickford.
England took control through Raheem Sterling’s goal (66%) followed by Thomas Muller missing an excellent chance (37%) to equalise almost immediately after, before Harry Kane made sure of progression with his first of the tournament.
Ukraine 0-4 England: Set-pieces come to the fore
Never have we witnessed such a routine quarter-final victory for an England team. It was nerveless from start to finish, mainly thanks to Harry Kane’s early goal.
The Three Lions racked up 2.15 xG which included four ‘big chances’, breezing to the semi-finals, but what was important was that they scored two goals from set-pieces - a key factor in their deep run during the 2018 World Cup.
Prior to the Ukraine game, England had managed just eight shots from dead-ball situations (corners, free-kicks etc), in the quarter-final they had five.
Defensively, this was England’s best performance at Euro 2020 according to xG, limiting Ukraine to a total of 0.26 xG. That goes down as the fourth best defensive display at the tournament so far, with only Spain’s 5-0 win over Slovakia (0.10), Portugal’s 3-0 win over Hungary (0.23) and Italy’s 3-0 win over Switzerland (0.25) bettering that total.
England 2-1 Denmark (AET): Strong performance
England bucked the trend of being outshot at the tournament by registering 21 shots across the 120 minutes and an xG of 3.23. Perhaps crucially, this didn't open them up defensively with Denmark limited to just 0.30 xG.
Mikkel Damsgaard's wonder free-kick was the only real chance of note - and that being because it found the back of the net - but a strong end to the 90 minutes could have easily seen England win the game in normal time.
The xG scoreline after 90 minutes was 1.39 to 0.27 in England's favour but they couldn't find a way past an organised Danish defence with a strong performance from Kasper Schmeichel in goal.
Set-pieces were key in the win over Ukraine and England could have scored from another against Denmark. Harry Maguire had three shots - two of which were on target - while John Stones also had two efforts towards goal.
Italy 1-1 England (3-2 pens): No complaints about the outcome
England have been on the right side of the Expected Goals (xG) battle throughout the tournament, but the final saw Italy enjoy the better of the chances and they deserved to secure victory in 120 minutes.
The Three Lions' three missed penalties - two of which were comfortable saves for Gianluigi Donnarumma - eventually secured the trophy for Italy but it shouldn't have even reached that point.
Italy's 2.69 xG was met by England's 0.75. We could point to the quality of opponent but Southgate playing a back-three led to their two highest xGA tallies of the tournament - the other being 1.33 against Germany in the round of 16.
Bonucci (0.64 xG) couldn't miss from close range but it could have been more. Domenico Berardi (0.55 xG) hit an effort over in the 73rd minute while Lorenzo Insigne missed two 0.13 xG chances in the second-half.
Shaw's effort (0.42 xG) was England's only real effort of the contest - Jack Grealish's 108th minute strike (0.12 xG) being their next best.
Ultimately, while it went down to spot kicks, the trophy could have easily been Italy's at the conclusion of normal time.