Bayern Munich are in a very strong position as they face Chelsea in the round of 16 on Saturday. Tom Carnduff looks at the betting.
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1pt Alphonso Davies to have 1+ shots on target at 7/2
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Bayern Munich v Chelsea (20:00 BST, BT Sport)
Chelsea's 33/1 price to qualify tells us all we need to know about their current situation heading over to Germany. 3-0 down from a first leg hammering at Stamford Bridge - Frank Lampard's side are likely to experience defeat again against the current Bundesliga champions.
Bayern's storming form throughout the post-lockdown period really fired them clear in the race for the title. They'd seen pressure from Dortmund and Leipzig throughout but those final games demonstrated why they have been number one in the country for a long period.
Hansi Flick's side are now 10/3 joint-favourites for Champions League glory and one of Napoli or Barcelona await them in the quarter-final. They should possess all the confidence needed to go all the way.
This Bayern team were in disarray at points in the early season but Flick has come in and not only steadied the ship but taken them to another level. This group of players have the feel of the next great Bayern side.
Their performances in the Champions League is how we can truly judge this team given their domination in Germany across the 2010s. Even with the tougher route out of the two possible ones to the final, Bayern look like they could do it.
It's reflected in the fact that they won maximum points (18/18) and had a goal difference of +19 in the group stage this season. That was the best-ever performance by a team in the group stage of the competition.
The 65 shots on target they posted was also well clear of any other team. Six came in that win at Stamford Bridge and there should be more here as they look to complete the job.
Bayern have had to shuffle their pack slightly due to injuries. Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka formed a fine partnership in defensive midfield but Benjamin Pavard's season-ending injury means that Kimmich will play the remainder of this tournament at right-back.
Kingsley Coman could be out and that means a start for Ivan Perisic - although reports in Germany state that Flick wasn't particularly satisfied with Perisic's performance in a recent game against Marseille so it could be a dilemma in that area.
Therefore, it is worth backing the 3/1 available on Alphonso Davies to have at least one shot on target in this contest. He proved to be a nightmare for the Chelsea defence in the first leg and there may be more of an emphasis on him to attack with Bayern's current issue at left wing.
Davies isn't known for being a prolific scorer but he did net twice in the post-lockdown period. He will get the better of the Chelsea defence on more than one occasion due to his pace and ability on the ball and if he is in the right position, he has demonstrated on multiple occasions that he will try and find the net.
I'm intrigued to see if they opt to play Davies in a more advanced position and perhaps even in that left wing role with Lucas Hernandez coming in behind. It's unlikely, but certainly one to keep in mind when the team news comes out around 7pm.
The 7/2 best price for a shot on target is particularly appealing when it is 5/1 that he scores anytime in the contest. Given the small drop down to the stats price, it is worth taking the 'safety net' of a shot as opposed to one that has to find the net.
This should be another victory for Bayern as they continue their push for European glory. They are 4/11 to win this game but the better outright value comes in the 10/11 across the board on a win starting with a -1 handicap.
That is something they have done in each of their last three competitive matches (2-4, 0-4, 3-1) while Chelsea's last two Premier League defeats have all been by at least two-goal margins.
Score prediction: Bayern Munich 2-0 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Opta facts
- Bayern Munich have only hosted Chelsea once previously for a competitive match, winning 3-2 in April 2005 in the Champions League, with current Chelsea manager Frank Lampard scoring the opening goal for the Blues.
- Chelsea and Bayern Munich last faced in the Allianz Arena in the 2012 Champions League final, with the Blues victorious on penalties after a 1-1 draw.
- In the entire history of the European Cup and Champions League, no team has ever won by three or more goals in the first leg of a knockout match away from home and failed to progress, going through on all 92 previous occasions.
- Chelsea are winless in their last seven away Champions League matches in the knockout stages (D4 L3) since a 1-0 win at Benfica in March 2012 in the quarter final.
- Chelsea have only scored three goals in an away Champions League knockout match once previously, winning 3-1 at Liverpool in April 2009; Bayern have only conceded three times in three of their 43 home Champions League knockout games, though did so most recently in a 1-3 defeat to Liverpool in March 2019.
- Bayern have won their first seven Champions League games this season, scoring 27 goals and conceding just five. Only one team has ever won their first eight matches of a campaign, with Barcelona winning their first nine in 2002-03 across the two group stages, before going out in the quarter final.
- Bayern Munich manager Hans Dieter-Flick is looking to become only the third manager in Champions League history to win his first five matches in charge, after Fabio Capello (first six with Milan in 1992-93) and Luis Fernandez (first six with PSG in 1994-95).
- Chelsea have conceded 12 Champions League goals this season, last conceding more during the 2008-09 campaign (13) when they reached the semi-final. The most goals they’ve conceded in a season was back in 1999-2000 (14).
- Bayern Munich’s Robert Lewandowski has scored 11 goals and assisted two more in six Champions League appearances this season, averaging a goal or assist every 41 minutes. The German side haven’t won any of their last five knockout stage games in the Champions League in which Lewandowski has not been on the scoresheet (D3 L2).
- All six of Serge Gnabry’s Champions League goals for Bayern this season have come against English teams (four vs Spurs, two vs Chelsea). Only two players have scored more goals against teams from a single nation in one season – Cristiano Ronaldo in 2013-14 vs German teams (7) and Luiz Adriano in 2014-15 vs Belarussian teams (8).
Odds correct at 0900 BST (07/08/20)
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