Dale Tempest's preview and tips: Our football betting insight columnist looks to the Manchester derby and Chelsea v Everton
Dale Tempest is back with his football betting insight column, with three tips to consider.
When you watch a lot of Sky Bet EFL Championship action, you are permanently looking for the improving teams, the ones looking confident and progressive.
However, just as important is finding the teams who are poor and lacking any quality or organisation. Hull are that team.
They started the season in an okay fashion and were kept in mid-table with the goals of Jarrod Bowen and Kamil Grosicki. After a nightmare January Deadline Day for Hull manager Grant McCann, 17-goal (all competitions) Bowen is now staring for West Ham while seven-goal Grosicki is part of table-topping West Brom's promotion push.
The new top goalscorer at Hull is Tom Eaves who has just five league goals to his name. The heart has simply been ripped out of the side and relegation is still a serious possibility. The Tigers have now lost eight of their last 10 and drawn the other two.
The recent 4-4 home draw with Swansea was one of the most shambolic games of football I have ever seen. Both defences were awful but particularly Hull's.
Their shot data is, however, still okay after impressive early-season numbers so the ninth position in the EFL Expected Goal (XG) charts probably doesn’t reflect their present position.
The slope graph (where they will be at the end of the season) XG expectation for Hull is to finish 17th. Their opponents this weekend are Stoke who look like they are going the other way.
Manager Michael O'Neill has steadied the ship and, despite their position of 21st, it would be a major shock if they went down.
The clash is at the bet365 stadium where they have really improved with five wins in the last eight, drawing two with one defeat.
The Potters' squad is still massively underperforming, as you can see from their away form over the same period in which, over eight road trips, they have lost four, conceding eight at QPR and Derby, drawn two and won two.
As with many sides, it is at home where O’Neill is getting the best out of his squad. I expect that to continue this weekend.
To complete the weekend double I am going with Wolves to beat Brighton. The Seagulls are struggling for goals and form with top goalscorer stalwart Glenn Murray only getting six starts this season and his main replacement Neil Maupay yet to fire consistently, with just one goal in his last 11 in all competitions.
Graham Potter's side are yet to win in 2020. Wolves, despite the stresses of a successful Europa League campaign, are serious contenders for Champions League qualification and continue to impress.
And on to Sunday...
I just cannot back Chelsea at 4/5 when they are taking on an improving Everton. The 14/5 draw price looks the place to be.
Frank Lampard’s youngsters have struggled for consistency, especially at home, where they have managed only 18 goals. Carlo Ancelotti has given Everton a competitive edge and they can come away from the Bridge with a point.
My final bet of the weekend is on the Manchester derby, with Bruno Fernandes fancied to be carded against City. There will be celebrations in the Tempest household with shouts of “book him Deano!" as my favourite Premier League referee waves his card at United’s new star signing.
The Portuguese midfielder has been outstanding since he arrived at Old Trafford, with goals, assists and a hunger for the ball but he does have an edge to him.
He picked up four yellow cards in his last Champions League campaign of eight games, so when the importance of the games increase so does his petulance.
Good luck!
Bruno Fernandes: United star's impact assessed by Richard Jolly
2pts Stoke/Wolves double at 1.71/1
1pt Draw in Chelsea v Everton (Sunday)
1pt Bruno Fernandez to be carded in Man United v Man City at 10/3 (Sunday)
*Click above links to add selections to betslip*
Odds correct as of 0900 GMT on 06/03/2020
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