Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Crystal Palace or Draw at 15/8 (General)
It has been another solid, yet oddly topsy-turvy season for Crystal Palace, who constantly seem to find the abnormal balance between stability and crisis.
Roy Hodgson has come in for his fair share of criticism this season, his brand of somewhat uninspiring football not going down too well among the Palace faithful, but the fact remains that the Eagles are 10th in the Premier League table, 10 points clear of the relegation zone and look to have already booked another season in the top flight.
Palace’s 0-0 draw with Fulham on Sunday highlighted perfectly why Hodgson is under pressure, with his side registering just one shot in the entire match.
That is probably not good enough at home to a side currently in the bottom three, but despite posting some dour numbers, Palace are still picking up points; victories over Wolves, Newcastle and Brighton in their last six matches demonstrating as such.
Two of those wins, against Newcastle and Brighton, were achieved despite registering less than 1xGF (expected goals for).
In fact, Palace have failed to create chances exceeding 1xGF in any of their last five matches.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Palace are by no means the most attractive team to watch, but a win here would take them to within a point of Arsenal and the top half of the Premier League.
A win for Manchester United, on the other hand, would give Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men a nine-point cushion between themselves and fifth-placed Chelsea.
While the more optimistic United fans would like to think they are still in with a chance of the title, securing a place in the top four is surely the priority for Ole and his men.
United are on a nine-game unbeaten run in all competitions, but it has not been all sunshine and rainbows for the Red Devils in that time, failing to win five of those matches, six if you include their 1-0 victory over West Ham in the FA Cup, which came after extra-time.
Their most recent Premier League fixture ended in a goalless draw at Chelsea, and despite their early-season exploits on the road, that result means United have now won just one of their last five away matches.
It is difficult to make a case for Manchester United not being favourites, but whether a price of 2/5 flatters them is certainly up for debate.
In fact, this is the second shortest price United have been away from home this season, the shortest coming when away to West Brom last month – a fixture they incidentally failed to win.
By the same token, this is also the biggest price Palace have been at home all season, and while that may be fair enough considering United’s league position, is it a fair reflection on Palace, effectively rendering them the second-worst team United have faced on the road this campaign?
Profitable long-term betting is not about picking out the most likely outcome, it is about picking out the outcome that offers the most value.
In this case that appears to be backing CRYSTAL PALACE OR DRAW on the double chance market at 15/8.
Crystal Palace v Manchester United best bet and score prediction
- Crystal Palace or Draw at 15/8 (General)
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Man United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1300 GMT on 02/03/21
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