Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Both teams to score in the first half at 9/2 (General)
1pt Ademola Lookman to score anytime at 3/1 (GentingBet, VBET)
Crystal Palace v Fulham
- Sunday, 12:00 GMT on BBC One
- Match odds: Home 12/5 | Draw 11/5 | Away 6/5
Sometimes in football you just need to win when playing badly. That’s what Crystal Palace did last time out against rivals Brighton.
The Seagulls had an expected goals rating of 3.03, according to Infogol, with Palace managing a meagre 0.27 in reply. The stats clearly argued that Brighton dominated proceedings. Inevitably it was the underachievers who ran out 2-1 victors.
And this isn’t an anomaly. The Eagles have won the expected goals battle in just one of their last seven Premier League fixtures. But they’ve still managed to pick up nine points in that run.
It’s that kind of fortune that explains why Crystal Palace are currently 13th in the table - 10 points clear of the bottom three - but should be 18th in the expected rankings.
Fulham are the team who are actually 18th. They’re three points off safety and for much of this season have had seemingly one foot already in the Championship.
If we go by the data and simulate their league position by expected results instead of the actual scorelines, they’d be safe in 15th.
Fulham’s performances are finally being awarded with wins. They’ve won the expected goals battle in four out of their last six matches, collecting two wins, three draws and one defeat in that stretch.
The bookies aren’t stupid. Relegation-threatened Fulham are rightly favourites for this game at a smidge over evens.
Without star Wilfried Zaha, Roy Hodgson’s side look tepid going forward. The Eagles have lost 18 of their previous 21 Premier League matches when the injured Zaha is absent, including five from six this season.
The 28-year-old is still a doubt for Sunday’s game.
But it’s at the back where I think a value bet can be found.
Conceding early goals has been an issue for Palace and the nine goals they have shipped in the first 15 minutes is the worst record in the Premier League this season.
Just four teams have scored more than the seven goals Palace have netted in that time though. I’d really encourage punters to grab a bit of breathing space and back BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE IN THE FIRST HALF at 5/2 (general).
I’d also have a look at ADEMOLA LOOKMAN in the anytime goalscorer market. The Fulham forward netted the winner for the Cottagers against Sheffield United last time out and averages over 2.5 shots per game.
Lookman is 3/1 to make it two from two, and 15/2 to find the net first (GentingBet, VBET; general).
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Crystal Palace v Fulham best bets
- 1pt Both teams to score in the first half at 9/2
- 1pt Ademola Lookman to score anytime at 3/1
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (25/02/21)
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