Burnley attempt to continue their recent revival in the Premier League relegation battle with a trip to Crystal Palace. Michael Beardmore has the preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Burnley or Draw Double Chance at 20/21 (General)
1pt Dwight McNeil 1+ shots on target at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
Such is the nature of this season’s Premier League relegation battle, whenever you think a team is doomed, they bounce back with a run of results to suggest they have a chance of survival.
Burnley are the latest case in point, back-to-back wins over Brighton and Tottenham following up draws with Watford, Arsenal and Manchester United to lift them off bottom spot towards safety.
They have conceded just two goals in their past six games. That should be no surprise, though – despite their lowly position of 18th, the Clarets boast the top flight’s seventh best defensive record.
How to predict, though, what awaits them at Selhurst Park? Against an inconsistent Crystal Palace side whose record of W6, D11, L9 shows you’re never quite sure what you’re going to get.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Crystal Palace 10/11 | Draw 12/5 | Burnley 16/5
Palace, of course, walloped Watford in midweek but they will have to work far harder to win – and indeed, to score – against Sean Dyche’s side.
Given their recent revival, Burnley should garner plenty of interest at prices of 3/1 and upwards here, but I can’t ignore the fact that both teams have drawn 11 games this season – only Brighton (12) have drawn more.
I’m a great believer in goal difference being a telling factor on whether the league table lies and Burnley’s -8 is comfortably the best of the bottom seven.
Combine that with their positive recent run plus Palace having little to play for and I think BURNLEY OR DRAW in the Double Chance market is a very, very generous price at close to even money generally.
The Clarets have tightened up even more than normal recently, their past six matches yielding just seven goals, and I suspect this will be a low-scoring Burnley win or draw.
The goalscorer markets are tough to explore as a result but there is a standout price in Sky Bet’s shots market – namely DWIGHT MCNEIL 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET at 7/4.
This price might have been slightly inflated by the winger’s failure to score this season – but that hasn’t been for the want of trying.
Across his past five starts, McNeil has attempted 10 shots, and with Maxwel Cornet’s fitness 50/50, it could once again fall to the exciting winger to provide Burnley’s spark.
Odds of almost doubling your money look large considering McNeil has 10 on-target efforts in his 22 starts this season and that his shooting output has doubled in recent times – the aforementioned 10 in his past five starts as many as he had attempted in his previous 10.
Crystal Palace v Burnley best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Burnley or Draw Double Chance at 20/21 (General)
- 1pt Dwight McNeil 1+ shots on target at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (24/02/22)
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