Football betting tips: Nations League
1pt Croatia to win and both teams to score at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Luka Modric to be shown a card at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 19/1
- Croatia to win
- Both teams to score
- Modric to be shown a card
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Viaplay International YouTube
Home 11/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 4/1
Promotion and relegation is quite the new gimmick in international football. Unfortunately for Scotland, it's threatening to simply expose just how far away they are from being competitive at the top level.
In fairness, the make-up of the four divisions of Nations League 'A' isn't as lopsided as it could be. Group 2 contains one obvious whipping boy in Israel - who have unsurprisingly lost to France, Italy and Belgium, conceding nine goals in the process - but the rest don't present in such a stark way.
The reality is altogether different, though.
Only Bosnia and Herzegovina (75th) sit lower in FIFA's world rankings than Scotland in 52nd; none of the other 14 are ranked lower than 35th with 10 of them making up the world's top 20.
Bosnia ensured they would avoid the ignominy of ending their campaign pointless by scraping to a fortunate goalless draw in Hungary during the last round of fixtures.
Croatia against Scotland is unlikely to go that way.
What are the best bets?
Steve Clarke's side were given far too much credit for their performances in the last international break as they continued a long-term decline in defensive performance.
Two goals down at home to Poland, they recovered to parity, only for the visitors to win via a 97th-minute penalty.
Against Portugal in Lisbon they did show serious grit after taking a seventh-minute lead, eventually succumbing to a Cristiano Ronaldo winner in the final moments of normalctime. It stretched their winless run in competitive fixtures to a record-breaking eight games.
Across those two matches Scotland allowed chances equating to 4.96 expected goals (xG).
They've kept only one clean sheet in their past 14 fixtures and that was in a friendly against Gibraltar. Prior to that they kept five in seven.
CROATIA were edged 2-1 in Portugal before beating Poland 1-0 last month to make it three straight home wins. They're turning into something of a specialist in this competition too, winning six of their last eight Nations League matches.
That victory ended a five-game run without a clean sheet, with four of those seeing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE.
The 11/4 about combining those selections should be backed given the significant bump we get in comparison to the manual double of a home win and BTTS, which comes out at 2/1.
Luka's legs gone?
Elsewhere we're taking LUKA MODRIC TO BE SHOWN A CARD at 5/1.
The legendary midfielder scored a wonderful free-kick in victory over Poland, but at 39 years old may he finally be showing his age?
Booked only twice for Real Madrid last season in La Liga and the Champions League, seven times the previous campaign, and on five occasions in 2021/22, he has been carded five times in his last seven appearances, with three of those as a substitute.
At some point, it just becomes easier to trip 'em up. You've earned it Luka.
Team news
Croatia's Martin Erlic returns from injury but fellow defenders Josip Stanisic, Marin Pongracic and Lovro Majer are out.
Eintracht Frankfurt striker Igor Matanovic made his debut last month and could once again start up front.
Scotland have Torino striker Che Adams back in the squad and he could come in, alongside at least one further change after goalkeeper Angus Gunn withdrew injured, leading to a recall for 41-year-old Craig Gordon.
Steve Clarke has plenty of other injury issues with John McGinn, Aaron Hickey, Nathan Patterson, Kieran Tierney, Greg Taylor and Lawrence Shankland all out.
Predicted line-ups
Croatia XI: Livakovic; Erlic, Sutalo, Gvardiol; Pjaca, Kovacic, Modric, Baturina, Sosa; Matanovic, Kramaric.
Scotland XI: Gordon; Ralston, Hanley, Souttar, Robertson; McClean, Gilmour; Doak, McTominay, Christie; Adams.
Match facts
- This will be the first meeting between Croatia and Scotland since EURO 2020 when the Vatreni won 3-1 at Hampden Park to eliminate the Scots from the competition.
- Scotland are unbeaten on their two previous away trips to face Croatia, drawing 1-1 in October 2000 and most recently winning 1-0 in June 2013 thanks to a Robert Snodgrass goal.
- Croatia have won each of their last three home matches across all competitions and will be aiming to win four such games in a row for the first time since October 2020 and for the first time without conceding since June 2016.
- Scotland are winless in each of their last eight competitive matches (D3 L5), the longest streak of their history. Meanwhile the Scots could lose four games in a row for the first time since October 2019.
- Croatia have won six of their last eight games in the UEFA Nations League (D1 L1), after winning just two of their first 12 matches in the competition (D2 L8).
- Scotland named the same starting lineup in their UEFA Nations League MD1 and MD2 losses to Poland and Portugal, the first time they had done so in all competitions since September 2023 – their starting XI against Portugal had won 493 caps between them, the most for a game in their history.
- Mateo Kovačić could make his 107th appearance for Croatia, moving him ahead of Ivan Rakitic into outright fifth for most appearances for the nation; two of the four players above him also played in Croatia’s 1-0 win against Poland last time out (Luka Modric – 180 and Ivan Perisic – 136).
- Scott McTominay has scored 11 goals for Scotland, with all 11 coming in competitive fixtures. Only Robert Hamilton (15/15 – 1899-1911), Robert McColl (13/13 – 1896-1908) and Andy Wilson (13/13 – 1920-1923) have scored more for the nation with 100% of them coming in competitive fixtures.
Odds correct at 1050 BST (11/10/24)
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