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Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts Charlton -1 handicap at 5/6 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Is there a more FA Cup underdog-sounding name than Cray Valley Paper Mills?
It sounds more like a quaint shopping village than a football club but here they are, hosting Sky Bet League One big boys Charlton in a first-round replay, live on TV.
Steve McKimm's eighth-tier minnows, who play in the Isthmian South East, conceded inside 10 minutes in the initial tie at The Valley but refused to be bowed and earned a replay, albeit with a slice of fortune through an Addicks own goal.
The London neighbours are only four miles apart on the map but separated by almost 120 places in the footballing pyramid – classic cup-tie stuff.
What are the best bets?
With a fortnight between league fixtures due to the international break and keen to avoid embarrassment in front of the nation, Charlton will almost certainly field a stronger starting XI than they did for the first meeting.
On that occasion, boss Michael Appleton made 11 changes and then threw on five of his big guns in the second half in a bid to finish the job at the first time of asking but the non-leaguers held out for a famous draw.
That might be as good as it gets for Cray Valley as the five-division gap will surely tell in the return encounter.
The expected goals (xG) tally from the initial tie is telling - Charlton winning the xG battle 3.16-0.45. As all underdogs do, Cray Valley needed the luck, and they got it.
The Addicks are unlikely to be as wasteful or unfortunate again - they hit the bar and missed at least two other huge chances, and, remember, conceded only via an own goal.
They're rightly short in most markets going but the most generous price - 5/6 on CHARLTON -1 HANDICAP via Paddy Power and Betfair - should be snapped up.
Appleton's side held League One leaders Portsmouth away at the weekend and if they take this seriously - as they should after the first game and with the TV cameras present - they will stroll though.
I did consider higher handicaps at bigger prices but the neighbourly friendliness between the clubs puts me off - when the job is done, the Addicks could ease off rather than rack up the goals.
BuildABet @20/1
- Charlton -1 handicap
- Half-time score: 0-2
- Conor McGrandles to score anytime
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
The Addicks will want the job done by half-time to ease the nerves - expect some first-choice players to start in the hope they can be taken off early in the second half.
Midfielder Conor McGrandles started the first game and scored off the bench against Portsmouth on Saturday so he should be brimming with confidence against the part-timers.
Score prediction: Cray Valley PM 0-2 Charlton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Team news
Cray Valley could well stick with the team that earned a draw at Charlton as they have few injury concerns. Kyrell Lisbie - son of former Addicks favourite Kevin - scored twice in a weekend league win.
The visitors will be without several players called up for international duty including New Zealand goalkeeper Ashley Maynard-Brewer, St Lucia defender Terell Thomas and, possibly, Jamaica pair Karoy Anderson and Michael Hector.
Panutche Camara, Terry Taylor and Chuks Aneke remain on the injury list as the Addicks' squad depth continues to be tested.
Predicted line-ups
Cray Valley Paper Mills: Freeman; Williams, Tumkaya, Lee, Asiedu; Ibrahim, Black, Vigor; Ademiluyi, Parker, Lisbie
Charlton Athletic: Walker; Asiimwe, Ness, Edun; Dobson, McGrandles, Watson, Fraser; May, Blackett-Taylor, Leaburn
Odds correct 1600 GMT (13/11/23)
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