Chelsea: Why Todd Boehly's splashing of January cash is a dangerous financial gamble
Chelsea’s eye-watering transfer spend since Todd Boehly purchased the club last summer has led many to conclude – perhaps because a billionaire acting so confidently always seems to elicit this response – that the new owner knows what he’s doing, that these must be exciting times for Chelsea, worrying times for everyone else.
Nowhere is this assumption more clear than in the misuse, or at least one-sided interpretation, of the word ‘loophole’ in relation to the way Chelsea are using current amortisation rules to spread the costs of transfers over ultra-long contracts.
‘Loophole’ evokes the idea of tax-dodging, of finding a way to gain an unfair advantage, and there has been speculation that other clubs are trying to take advantage of the technicality before it is shut down by Uefa.
But Uefa are not rushing through new legislation to close off a cheat code, rather to avoid careless owners allowing clubs’ debts to spiral out of control.
It is time to point out what few seem willing to say out loud, in the most part for fear they must have missed something: Chelsea are taking an unprecedented and dangerous financial gamble.
Will Chelsea breach Financial Fair Play?
A report by Swiss Ramble earlier in January suggests Chelsea are not set to break Financial Fair Play rules in the near future as long as they: a) continue to sell players to offset huge losses; b) do not add significantly more to their operating costs; and c) continue to qualify for the Champions League.
None of those three things are guaranteed and the second one is already broken, but more importantly the ever-spiralling amortisation bill means Chelsea are now fixed to their current model - and squad - like never before.
In other words, this really needs to work out. Chelsea’s ‘loophole’ has kicked the can down the road but they are still liable for all that money spent, which means if the flurry of new signings do not work out – and do not at least hold their current valuation – then Chelsea will be handcuffed to the mistakes they made over the past 12 months.
There is a lot riding on how these players turn out, so it is well worth scrutinising each one in detail.
Badiashile and Fernandez: Potter-ball from the bottom up
Graham Potter will be delighted with the two big-money defensive-minded signings Chelsea have made. Benoit Badiashile (signed for £35million from AS Monaco) and Enzo Fernandez (signed for £105.6million from Benfica) have all the makings of elite Premier League footballers who, first and foremost, are exceptional ball-players.
That is precisely what Potter needs for his concept of intricate possession football to take effect at Chelsea. He will need his defenders to be able to resist the press and pass out from the back with measured control in order to keep opponents penned in and create Guardiola-like dominance, which is why Badiashile is potentially as critical as signing Virgil van Dijk was to Liverpool.
That comparison is a little exaggerated, in that Badiashile is not quite proven at the highest level yet, but he has superb composure in his positional work and careful recycling of the ball to compliment his height, power, and traditional defensive work. Most telling of all, compared to all defenders in the ‘Big Five’ leagues over the last 365 days, he is in the 87th percentile for progressive passes (3.64 per 90), according to FBRef.
He will begin the process of moving Chelsea from sideways possession - hesitating as they try to understand the difficulties of Potter-ball - to a more progressive style of play with calm intelligence. And that is also exactly what Fernandez will do, albeit with the same caveat of inexperience.
Fernandez certainly isn’t worth a nine-figure fee, simply because he has only played 27 league matches in Europe and none in the ‘Big Five’ leagues. The figure was clearly bumped up by a successful World Cup campaign in which he showed why he might – if Chelsea are lucky - just be the next Rodri.
Sitting at the base of midfield, Fernandez is a metronomic presence, often dropping into the defensive line to take the ball and move it forward. Progressive passing is one of his great strengths, alongside a Jorginho-like caressing of the ball and an unusual press-resistance of the sort all top teams need (think Rodri or Thomas Partey).
Fernandez and Badiashile can help shuttle the ball quickly up to Ben Chilwell and Reece James, breaking lines and getting the ball into the forwards much faster than Chelsea are currently able.
Mudryk, Madueke and Felix: verticality and attacking dynamism
From this new forward-thrusting base, Chelsea have added verticality in the front line with three interesting additions. The headline signing was Mykhailo Mudryk (£89million from Shakhtar Donetsk) and in a brief cameo against Liverpool he showed what a handful he can be, running in straight lines and using his pace to draw defenders towards him.
That kind of energy will compliment Raheem Sterling, who used to be the only direct winger in a Chelsea side overly-packed with playmakers that look to come towards the ball. This partially explains why their football has so often got clogged up, and why Thomas Tuchel’s desire to play in sharp forward patterns never really came to fruition.
Mudryk will take people away from Sterling and, with wing-backs overlapping, can provide the purpose that’s needed after all that Potter possession. Something similar can be said of Noni Madueke (signed for £30.7million from PSV), a wide forward who uses tricks and skills like Manchester United’s Antony. Madueke is quick and direct, often shooting more than he should and looking a little raw, but nevertheless he has a high ceiling.
The third big-money forward who came in this winter was Joao Felix, who cost around £11million on a short loan. Felix is a point of difference from the other two, a link player who acts more like a false nine from the front, and although he couldn’t quite live up to his potential at Atletico Madrid, Felix now finds himself in a much better environment.
He suits playing for an attacking side with lots of possession and, with time, his smart one-touch passing can unlock defences for the onrushing Mudryk and Sterling, while his movement in the final third will provide Chelsea’s midfield with the forward pass they have often missed.
Fofana, Santos, Gusto: future stars or buy-to-sell investments
The other three January signings were not cheap, but they may not even have been signed to play first-team football for the club. Chelsea have long had a policy of training up young players before selling them for a large profit, creating a money-printing machine that has offset their other expenses, and that could be what we are looking at here.
Right-back Malo Gusto, loaned straight back to Lyon after his £26million move late in the window, has the best chance of challenging for the first XI.
He is a very attacking right-back and one who takes up traditional wide positions, overlapping into the final third to produce crosses at a remarkable rate: he is in the 99th percentile (1.43) for crosses among right-backs across the Big Five leagues over the last 365 days, per FBRef. He also tends to run the right flank on his own, like James, being in the 96th percentile for average touches (96) among right-backs.
David Datro Fofana was expected to find a loan deal in January but could not, and the 22-year-old forward, signed for just £8million from Molde, faces an impossible task to get into a Chelsea team that now has nine forwards in it. The same can be said for 18-year-old Andrey Santos, a midfielder signed from Vasco for £18million who is, at best, one for the future.
Six out of nine of the January recruits, however, look like very good fits for Potter and potentially elite Premier League footballers. Boehly had better hope they are. He cannot afford his scouting department to have got it wrong.