Chelsea vs Luton betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Friday Night Football
2pts Chelsea to win to nil at evens (PaddyPower, Betfair, StarSports)
Chelsea could hardly have been handed an easier task to bounce back from their disappointing 3-1 defeat at the hands of West Ham on Sunday.
Granted, Luton will be organised and stick to their methods in attempting to gain an unlikely result, but the gap in quality is just too big to suggest that they can shock the Blues at Stamford Bridge. There's a reason Chelsea are going to start as long odds-on favourites for the game.
The fact that Chelsea enter this game on just one point through two games might put you off, but Mauricio Pochettino's iteration of the club has already shown that they can dominate large sections, albeit with some lapses against better opposition.
Luton, entering this fixture on the back of an extended break, were beaten convincingly by Brighton in their season opener, and don't really have talent to make us expect anything less than a home win on Friday night.
What are the best bets?
Backing long odds-on chances is generally not my style, but I can't really argue with the 1/4 price for Chelsea to gain a first victory of the season here.
Still, I'd like to boost the price with an added provision. CHELSEA TO WIN TO NIL takes my fancy at even-money.
Despite losing their way in some instances already this season, Chelsea have that look of a team that can completely nullify a team of Luton's stature by squeezing them up the pitch and camping in the opposition half.
Luton had just 29% of possession against Brighton last time out, and although they appeared bright early on, it was only a dubious penalty that stopped them from being shut out in the 4-1 loss. The Hatters had just eight shots equating to 0.7 xG otherwise.
With only a few additions made to a team that scored just 57 goals in 46 Championship games last season, I'm struggling to see where the scoring chances will come from for the newly promoted side on Friday night.
It makes the bump in price for a Chelsea win with a clean sheet to boot value.
I won't be adding it to the staking plan due to liquidity issues in the market on the Betfair Exchange, but the 5.6 available at the time of writing for Enzo Fernández to record an assist is too big.
Fernández is occupying a more advanced role than last season and his passing range from positions further up the pitch spell danger for any team. He's also in charge of some set-piece situations for Chelsea.
BuildABet @ 23/1
- Chelsea to win to nil
- 27+ Chelsea total shots
- Enzo Fernández to score or assist
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
As mentioned, the Blues to WIN TO NIL is a value play, while ENZO FERNANDEZ should be a considered as a threat to score and not only assist from his more advanced position in Chelsea's system under Mauricio Pochettino.
Luton conceded 27 SHOTS against Brighton and can be expected to be put under serious pressure again at Stamford Bridge.
Score prediction: Chelsea 3-0 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Team news
Mykhailo Mudryk and Carney Chukwuemeka have joined Reece James, Christopher Nkunku, Wesley Fofana, Armando Broja and Benoit Badiashile as key names on the Blues' long absentee list, giving Pochettino a problem on Chelsea's right side.
Luton have four players missing for their trip to Stamford Bridge, with Jordan Clark, Dan Potts Gabriel Osho and Reece Burke all out injured.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea: Sánchez; Disasi, Silva, Colwill; Gusto, Fernández, Caicedo, Chilwell; Sterling, Gallagher, Jackson
Luton: Shea; Andersen, Lockyer, Bell; Kaboré, Mpanzu, Nakamba, Chong, Doughty; Morris, Adebayo
Match facts
- Chelsea have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games (D5 L8) and are winless in their last eight at home (D5 L3), drawing each of the last three.
- Luton are set to become just the second side to see each of their first two Premier League games come away from home.
- Mauricio Pochettino has won 85% of his Premier League games in charge against promoted sides (W34 D4 L2), the joint-best win rate of any manager with 10+ such games.
- Following his penalty against Brighton on MD1, Carlton Morris could become the first player to score in a team's first two Premier League games ever since Ricardo Fuller did it for Stoke in 2008/09
- Since the start of the 2020/21 season, Raheem Sterling has been involved in 15 goals in 15 appearances against newly promoted sides (11 goals, 4 assists), including five goal involvements in five games against such opposition last term (3 goals, 2 assists).
Odds correct at 1800 BST (23/08/23)
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