Willian is tipped to keep Chelsea's top four hopes on track when they face relegated, goal-shy Norwich on Tuesday night.
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2pts Chelsea win to nil at 4/5
1pt Willian to score and Chelsea to win at 7/5
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Chelsea v Norwich
- 8pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match Odds: Home 1/7 | Draw 7/1 | Away 16/1
Sorry Norwich fans, I'm struggling to make a case for Chelsea not to be dishing out a beating as they look to keep their hopes of qualifying for the Champions League on track, but to begin with I'll at least try.
The Canaries were relegated by their 4-0 thrashing at the hands of West Ham, so I suppose with the inevitable confirmed they could now be uninhibited and play their natural game. Added to that faintest of faint glimmers, Chelsea put in possibly their most disappointing performance of the season during their own heavy defeat by Sheffield United at the weekend.
But that's your lot, and we are really clutching at straws.
It's been grim for Daniel Farke's side since the restart, losing all six Premier League games, scoring only once and conceding 15 times. But to be honest, 2020 hasn't exactly been sunshine and rainbows, especially in front of goal.
While pre-shutdown they did collect eight points from nine fixtures they scored only three times, so it's now three goals in 15 league games.
Their seven away goals is the lowest ever by a Premier League team and they'll have to find the net at least once either at Stamford Bridge or during their final-day trip to the Etihad to avoid making unwelcome history.
Since being humbled 3-0 at home by Bayern Munich in the Champions League, Chelsea have won four straight home matches and conceded only once: beating Liverpool 2-0, Everton 4-0, Man City 2-1 and Watford 3-0.
The Blues have conceded eight goals in their last four matches though, so that, combined with a potentially more free-spirited Norwich, does niggle slightly when backing them to keep a clean sheet.
But this really isn't the easiest game to find value in because the bookies seem pretty certain that Frank Lampard's side are going to wipe the floor with Farke's team. Norwich +3 goal handicap at 3/4 is a reflection of how bad a side they are considered to be, and quite honestly I agree with the pricing.
I'd like to take that price but this just feels like a three-goal win for Chelsea, and if you add an extra goal in whatever slightly altered market then the odds tumble. Then there's the added complication that Norwich's only meeting with a current top six side since lockdown was in the FA Cup against Manchester United and it took an extra-time goal to knock them out. Earlier in the season they beat Manchester City and Leicester, drew with the Foxes too, held Tottenham and narrowly lost at home to both Liverpool and Chelsea. So they are not that bad.
On balance, I just wouldn't back the Canaries to score, end of, and Chelsea should be able to keep a fourth clean sheet in five home matches. Although it makes me slightly uncomfortable, Chelsea win to nil at 4/5 offers the best value we're going to get.
Since the resumption, Chelsea going forward have been all about two players: Christian Pulisic and Willian - they've scored seven of the Blues' 12 goals between them.
So we have Pulisic To Score And Chelsea to Win at 11/10 or Chelsea's designated penalty and direct free-kick taker Willian To Score And Chelsea to Win at 7/5.
It's got to be the Brazilian in terms of the Best Bet at those odds, especially as he's scored in their last two matches at Stamford Bridge, but I'll probably go with both.
Prediction: Chelsea 3-0 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bets:
Chelsea v Norwich Opta stats
- Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 16 meetings with Norwich in all competitions (W11 D5), since a 0-3 loss in December 1994. After winning their first two Premier League away games against Chelsea (September 1992 and October 1993), Norwich are winless in their last six league visits to Stamford Bridge (D1 L5).
- Last time out versus Sheffield United, Chelsea lost by a three-goal margin for only the second time in the Premier League this season (also 0-4 vs Man Utd in August). They’ve only lost consecutive Premier League games by a three-goal margin on two previous occasions (February 2018 and October 1995).
- Chelsea have won their last four Premier League matches at Stamford Bridge, scoring at least two goals in each victory. The Blues last won five consecutively at home in the Premier League in December 2017, during a run of seven wins under Antonio Conte.
- This is the sixth time a side is facing Chelsea in their first Premier League match following relegation – Chelsea have won all previous five, most recently against Cardiff in 2013-14.
- Norwich have lost 24 Premier League games this season – they’ve never lost more in league campaign in their history.
- Norwich are currently on a run of seven consecutive Premier League defeats – they’ve never lost eight consecutive league games in their history.
- Norwich have failed to score in a league-high 17 Premier League games this season, with 11 of these coming away from home (also a league-high). The Canaries have netted just 26 Premier League goals, and just seven away from home this season – both league-low figures.
- Chelsea’s Willian has found the back of the net in each of his last three Premier League appearances at Stamford Bridge, including in both such matches since the restart. Indeed, the last Chelsea player to score in four consecutive home league appearances was Diego Costa in January 2015.
- Norwich’s Teemu Pukki has failed to score in each of his last 11 Premier League matches, going 780 minutes since his last strike in the competition (vs Tottenham in January).
Odds correct as of 1100 BST on 13/07/20
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