Chelsea v Leicester tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Joe Rindl has a best bet and score prediction as Chelsea host Leicester in the Premier League on Thursday night.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Chelsea to win with -1 handicap at 21/20 (Betfred, SpreadEx)
Chelsea are hoping to bounce back from yet another agonising cup final defeat when they take on Leicester City at Stamford Bridge on Thursday night.,
The Blues’ FA Cup final against Liverpool on Saturday played out much like their Carabao Cup final back in February.
After a goalless 120 minutes at Wembley, in which both sides had plenty of chances, it was Liverpool who prevailed on penalties.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
Chelsea 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Leicester 15/2
If lady-luck had fallen another way, Chelsea could currently be the League Cup, FA Cup and Champions League holders. Instead, this will be only their second trophyless season in six years (if you exclude the Club World Cup).
That’s not to say Thomas Tuchel’s team have underperformed. From a Premier League actual table and expected goals perspective, they have cemented themselves as the best of the rest, sitting third behind Manchester City and Liverpool.
Chelsea’s expected goals for (xGF) and expected goals against (xGA) are the third best in the top flight. Their expected goal difference (xGD) of +27.9 is over 10 higher than fourth-placed Tottenham’s.
The Blues will secure a third-placed finish if they beat Leicester on Thursday night.
It’s been a funny old season for Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester. They sit in a disappointing ninth at the time of writing and, if results go against them in the final few games of the season, could finish the campaign as low as 14th.
But the league is only one side of the story. Leicester’s run to the final four of the Europa Conference League this season will live long in the memory. A first European semi-final is not something to be scoffed at.
They are in good recent form too, smashing bottom clubs Norwich and Watford 3-0 and 5-1 respectively. Although given the gap between the Canaries and Hornets to the rest of the league, take those wins with a pinch of salt.
Chelsea are strong 2/5 favourites in this one and cantered to an easy 3-0 win at the King Power in the reverse fixture in November.
There is a difference in quality between these two sides, even backing Leicester-Draw at 9/4 best-price seems a tad too optimistic.
Leicester’s xG performance has been awful this season. Infogol rate the East Midlanders as the 19th-worst side in the Premier League based on expected points. Their xGD of -21.4 betters only already-relegated Norwich and Watford.
Given that Leicester have lost their last five fixtures against teams currently in the top five by at least two expected goals, I’m backing CHELSEA TO WIN WITH a -1 HANDICAP at 21/20 with Betfair and SpreadEx.
That bet has come through In five of the last six matches Leicester have played against the current top five.
Chelsea v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Chelsea to win with -1 handicap at 21/20 (Betfred, SpreadEx)
Score prediction: Chelsea 3-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 2000 BST (16/05/22)
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