Tom Carnduff had 3/1 and 7/1 winners in the first leg of Chelsea v Atletico Madrid. Three best bets are advised for the second leg.
Football betting tips: Chelsea v Atletico Madrid
1pt No goalscorer at 37/5 (SBK)
1pt Marcos Llorente to be shown a card at 4/1 (Unibet)
1pt Koke to be shown a card at 13/5 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Chelsea have a great opportunity to get the better of La Liga leaders Atletico Madrid in their second leg clash at Stamford Bridge. Olivier Giroud's wondergoal sees them hold a 1-0 advantage and that is an ideal situation for Thomas Tuchel's men.
The Spanish side need to score twice against a team with an incredibly strong defensive record under current management. It was another clean sheet for Chelsea in a 0-0 draw at Leeds on Saturday - a scoreline which we can expect again here.
A moment of magic separated the two teams in the first leg and a cagey second game, the 27/20 available on Over 2.5 Goals highlights how a low-scoring contest can be expected.
Go for no goalscorer rather than 0-0
It's easy to get caught up in expecting plenty of goals in the Champions League, particularly when price boosts are often targeted around certain players or outright results, but this looks like it will be a very low-scoring contest.
While a 0-0 draw is priced up around 15/2, it's worth backing NO GOALSCORER in the first goalscorer market with 7/1 available with multiple bookmakers. This adds the extra protection of a potential own goal if the net is to be struck.
Chelsea have seen Over 2.5 Goals just once in 12 games under Tuchel, while seven of those games have seen one goal or fewer. Atletico Madrid are one of six La Liga sides to have been involved in multiple 0-0 draws this season.
Only Real Sociedad and Sevilla boast a lower Expected Goals Against (xGA) figure in Spain's top-flight than Atletico (via Infogol). Diego Simeone's men are well known for being defensively organised and involved in low-scoring games and, even with a deficit, we can expect the same here.
Targeting cards again
The cards market delivered two winners at 3/1 and 7/1 in the first leg and the appointment of Daniele Orsato as the official here gives hope to more bookings being shown.
The Italian has only overseen two games in the Champions League but one of those saw a red card as Tuchel's PSG beat Manchester United at Old Trafford. In Serie A this season, Orsato has averaged 5.5 cards per game, and considering four were dished out to players in the first leg, we could expect that average to be hit here.
The first player to back is the one who delivered that 7/1 winner in MARCOS LLORENTE. While he was right-back for that game, Llorente has moved back into central midfield and his foul count has shot up.
His last three La Liga outings have seen two yellows cards and a combined 11 fouls. The same period also bringing eight tackles highlights how heavily involved he has been in the midfield battle. Figures like that combined with the official in charge makes the 4/1 best price on a card here look far too generous.
Elsewhere, I'm surprised to see a price as big as 13/5 on offer for KOKE to be shown a card in this game. The midfielder has been carded a huge eight times in La Liga this season, although he's avoided one in his last four outings.
During those four games, Koke committed six fouls but escaped punishment. The fact that his tackles count (4) in the first leg was his highest single game figure in the Champions League this season shows how heavily he was involved - he's another player who could suffer from the referee appointment.
Chelsea v Atletico Madrid best bets and score prediction
- 1pt No goalscorer at 37/5 (SBK)
- 1pt Marcos Llorente to be shown a card at 4/1 (Unibet)
- 1pt Koke to be shown a card at 13/5 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Score prediction: Chelsea 0-0 Atletico Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 2245 GMT (15/03/21)
Opta facts
- Chelsea have won one of their three home UEFA Champions League matches against Atlético Madrid (D1 L1), a 4-0 win in the 2009-10 group stages. Their one home defeat was in the second leg of the semi-final in 2013-14, losing 3-1.
- Atlético Madrid have lost three UEFA Champions League matches against Chelsea, their joint-most against an opponent along with Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.
- In their history in European competition, Chelsea have never been eliminated in a two-legged knockout tie after winning the first leg away from home (progressed from all 13). The two occasions they’ve been knocked out of the UEFA Champions League after winning the first leg are in 1999-00 vs Barcelona in the quarter-final and 2006-07 vs Liverpool in the semi-final.
- Under Diego Simeone, Atlético Madrid are unbeaten in each of their previous two UEFA Champions League games at Stamford Bridge (W1 D1). Their only previous away game at Chelsea in the knockout stages of the competition came back in April 2014, as Atlético eliminated them in the semi-finals with a 3-1 victory in the second leg.
- Atlético Madrid have a 50% progression rate in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League after losing the first leg of knockout ties, progressing from four of eight previous ties in these instances. Among the 72 teams to lose the first leg in at least five knockout ties, only Reims (60%, 3/5) have a higher progression rate in the history of the competition.
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