Lincoln City face Shrewsbury Town at Wembley on Sunday. Tom Carnduff is backing Salop for success in the Checkatrade Trophy final.
Checkatrade Trophy final recommended bets
2pts Shrewsbury to beat Lincoln at 11/8
1pt Shaun Whalley to score anytime at 5/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The Checkatrade Trophy reaches its conclusion on Sunday as Sky Bet League Two outfit Lincoln City face League One title contenders Shrewsbury Town at Wembley.
Both sides come into this one in good form, having lost just two games each in their last ten fixtures.
Play-offs are looking more certain for Lincoln as the games tick away, with their gap over Mansfield extended to four points with just six games remaining.
For Shrewsbury, the 5/4 favourites for relegation at the start of the season find themselves in an unlikely battle for automatic promotion, the more fancied Wigan Athletic and Blackburn Rovers threatening their position in the top two.
When it comes to goals, Shrewsbury aim to keep it tight at the back. Seven of their last ten games have seen under 2.5 goals, with the last two games breaking the trend.
Town sit second-bottom in the over 2.5 goals standings, with just 15 of their 40 games played seeing three or more goals.
For Lincoln, it is literally 50/50 on which games will have goals. In 40 games in League Two, 20 have had three or more goals, whilst 20 have not.
The Imps have scored in six away games against top-half sides in League Two this season, failing to strike against three whilst they are yet to play Accrington and Coventry on the road.
There is potential for a low-scoring final, with under 2.5 goals available at a biggest price of 5/6. It's worth remembering that a lot of markets will be settled in 90 minutes for this one, so you don't have to worry about extra-time giving more times to kill off the bet.
Both sides match their current league standings when it comes to playing games away from home, with Salop losing just four of their 21 games away from the Montgomery Waters Meadow and Lincoln City being defeated just six times from 20.
When it comes to trying to find goalscorers, Shaun Whalley is enjoying a terrific season and his brace in the victory over Oxford United sees him move to top of the goal-scoring charts for the Shropshire side.
He can be found at 5/2 to score anytime in the 90 minutes on Sunday, which looks decent value given the impact he's had for his side so far. When you also factor in Town's reliance on attacking from out wide, he should be involved a lot going forward.
Whalley recently admitted that his dad played at Wembley twice and lost on both occasions, so he'll be eager to improve the family record on Sunday.
Opta stats
- This is Lincoln City’s first ever appearance in the EFL Trophy final, whilst Shrewsbury have reached this stage just once before, losing 2-1 to Rotherham United in the 1996 competition.
- Indeed, this is the Red Imps’ first ever visit to Wembley Stadium. Conversely, Shrewsbury have played there on three previous occasions and lost every single time, including that 1996 EFL Trophy final against Rotherham as well as two League Two play-off final defeats in 2007 and 2009.
- This will be the third ever meeting between these two teams in this competition. The Shrews have won both of the previous two, coming out as 1-0 victors in November 1991 and 2-1 winners in November 2002.
- This will be the first clash between the sides in any competition since a League Two meeting in February 2011; Shrewsbury have won each of the last four encounters by an aggregate score of 10-1.
- Danny Cowley’s side have won six of their seven EFL Trophy games this season (D1), more than any other team in the competition in 2017-18. Their one draw came in the semi-final against Chelsea U21s, whom they would eventually eliminate after a 4-2 win on penalties.
- Indeed, Lincoln have netted 16 goals in their seven matches in this competition this season; no side has scored more.
- Shrewsbury have conceded only five goals in their seven EFL Trophy games en route to the final, keeping three clean sheets; only Peterborough (four) have kept more this season.
- Whilst Lincoln have won five of their last eight cup games against sides from a higher division than themselves (L3), the Shrews have won their last six in a row against sides from a lower division in all competitions since losing 1-0 to Cambridge United in last season’s EFL Trophy in August 2016.
Paul Hurst's men have enjoyed an extraordinary season so far, and they'll want something to show for it if they were to finish third in the title race and potential miss out on promotion.
Don't get me wrong, the Shrewsbury Town story is one that I have seriously enjoyed watching this season. In an age of clappers, iPads at games and people holding up 'please can I have your shirt' signs, there's been genuine pleasure in watching Salop give the League One 'big-boys' a run for their money.
I'd still back them for promotion, but if worse comes to worse and they miss out, they'll still have a trophy to display for this campaign which might be the extra motivation that they need for this tie.
Score prediction: Lincoln 0-2 Shrewsbury (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Shrewsbury to beat Lincoln at 11/8
Alternative bet: Shaun Whalley to score anytime at 5/2
Posted at 1655 BST on 06/04/18