Championship restart betting tips: Outright preview and best bets for 22-23 season
With the Sky Bet Championship resuming this weekend, Michael Beardmore analyses the season so far and takes a look at the best outright bets on offer.
Football betting tips: Championship outright
1.5pts Sheffield United to win the Sky Bet Championship at 10/3 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Bristol City to be relegated at 5/1 (General)
1pt e.w Chuba Akpom to be top Championship goalscorer at 33/1 (1/4 odds 1-4 places)
Who will win the Championship?
Sporting Life readers who backed Jake Osgathorpe’s pre-season 6/5 call of Sheffield United to finish in the top six might already be counting their cash given the seven-point gap the Blades hold to seventh place.
Paul Heckingbottom’s troops deserve immense credit for sitting second at this stage given the frankly ridiculous raft of injuries they have had to surmount to do so.
A brief glance at the top of the Championship table tells you all you need to know – Burnley’s goal difference of +17 and the Blades’ +16 are hugely superior to the sides below them.
Sky Bet Championship 22/23 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 11/10 - Burnley
- 5/2 - Sheffield Utd
- 9/1 - Watford
- 11/1 - Norwich
- 20/1 - Blackburn
- 28/1 - Middlesbrough
- 33/1 - QPR
Odds correct at 1800 (06/12/22)
Watford (12/1 best price for the title) and Norwich (13/1) do have the quality to make up a gap of eight and nine points respectively to leaders Burnley – but both have blown hot and cold, as have third-placed Blackburn, thus this looks a two-horse race.
Perhaps crucially, the Blades’ defence – nine clean sheets to Burnley’s six, 19 goals conceded to the Clarets’ 23 – looks tighter.
Thus, with just three points between the teams – plus the Blades having a host of attacking players to come back from injury post World Cup – the 10/3 on SHEFFIELD UNITED TO WIN THE TITLE looks preferable to the 6/5 on Burnley.
It’s also a forecast the Infogol Expected Goals model agrees with, predicting the Blades to pip Burnley to top spot.
Who will finish in the Championship top six?
Interestingly, though, the team that the model suggested should sit top of the pile heading into the World Cup break was not Burnley nor Sheffield United – nor was it a team even in the top half.
No, it’s Middlesbrough who boast that honour, with the xG model indicating the Teessiders can consider themselves extremely unfortunate to sit as low as 14th.
However, their recent resurgence under new boss Michael Carrick – three wins and a draw in four games prior to the break – has moved them just four points off the play-off spots.
That’s good news for those who backed our 6/5 shout for Boro to finish in the top six – and if you didn't back them at the start they are a juicy 11/4 generally now – but who else can provide play-off value with almost half of the campaign behind us?
The current top five are all odds-on, with the exception of third-placed Blackburn – whose hot and cold record of W12 D0 L9 makes them tough to trust even at 13/10.
That’s doubly true considering Infogol suggests they are overachieving – their model puts Rovers 18th on Expected Goals - and they also fell away badly last season to miss out on the top six after appearing top-two challengers midway through.
If you fancy them to buck that trend, the 30/1 on offer with several firms, paying each-way places to third or fourth, is instead the way to go. They are only five points off Burnley after all, making the price attractive for a speculative long-shot.
In truth, you could make a case for many sides from Millwall in seventh down to West Brom in 21st given just eight points separate them.
Coventry were the team I was very keen on up until a week or so ago, priced at 4/1 for a top six finish having won seven of their past nine to climb to 11th.
The Sky Blues also hold two games in hand on most teams above them, but the ongoing stadium issues are a huge distraction for Mark Robins' men.
That off-field uncertainty is enough to make me hesitant in backing them in this market.
No other team really catches the eye at a short-ish price, but, if you fancy a bit of a longer price then BIRMINGHAM CITY are your team.
John Eustace is enjoying a very impressive first season in charge with Blues boasting the division’s joint third meanest back-line.
The top six might be beyond them giving their attacking limitations but at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair) and just three points off sixth place, they are worth a quid of anyone’s money.
Blues are also 7/4 for a top-half finish. That’s likelier, obviously, but in such a gridlocked division, it’s not without its risks.
Who will be relegated from the Championship?
Those who snapped up the 9/1 Jake Osgathorpe recommended on HUDDERSFIELD to go down will be rubbing their hands with anticipation given the Terriers sit rock bottom of the table.
It’s not a done deal by any means with the Terriers only four points off safety but they are averaging less than a goal a game, have a rookie manager and are now a top price 13/20 to go down – making that ante-post 9/1 look huge.
Sky Bet Championship 22/23 relegation odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/2 - Huddersfield
- 11/10 - Rotherham
- 6/4 - Wigan
- 15/8 - Blackpool, Hull
- 10/3 - Bristol City
- 9/2 - Cardiff
- 7/1 - Brimingham
- 9/1 - Reading, Stoke
Odds correct at 1800 (06/12/22)
As with the play-off race, though, it’s difficult to ascertain who could join them with nine points separating 23rd from sixth. Wigan and Blackpool currently occupy the other two relegation spots and it would take a brave man to say that both will survive.
Infogol’s Expected Goals metrics suggest Rotherham and Hull will be in the mix too but with those four aforementioned teams all around the 2/1-9/4 range, it's worth looking further down the market.
At 5/1, BRISTOL CITY TO BE RELEGATED looks the value play. The Robins are just one point above the bottom three and have won just two of their past 14 games after a bright start.
Their expected goals against (xGA) figure of 1.51 per game is relegation material and while in the past two seasons (17th and 19th) they have been beneficiaries of some poor teams being cut adrift at the bottom, that's not the case this campaign.
Who will be the Championship's top goalscorer?
Equally tough to call is the top goalscorer market – at close of play at the World Cup break, eight players sat level on nine goals apiece, with a further four one behind on eight.
There’s two more on seven – and seven on six. It’s a crazily congested market – but what this means is that there is huge value to be found if we can pick out the right player.
The smartest thing from a punting perspective is to discount players from teams where the goals are being shared around between two or three main scorers.
Thus, Norwich’s Josh Sargent (16s) and Teemu Pukki (14s) plus Sheffield United pair Ollie McBurnie and Iliman Ndiaye (both 14s) are incredibly tough to choose between.
Blackburn’s Ben Brereton Diaz is the market leader at 8/1 but are Rovers creating enough chances? He's averaging just 0.29 xG per 95. Coventry's Viktor Gyokeres will have his backers but do the Sky Blues (21 goals in 19 games) score enough?
There are plenty of candidates but when you look to the stats, Middlesbrough’s CHUBA AKPOM TO BE TOP GOALSCORER at a whopping 33/1 with bet365 looks the standout value.
Akpom is one of the quartet on eight goals, just one shy of joint top spot, but has only played 14 games due to an injury earlier on this season. Thus, in terms of goals per 90 minutes (0.74) and mins per goal (121), he’s behind only McBurnie (0.77, 117).
We’re expecting a strong second half of the season for Boro under Carrick – they have averaged 1.84 xGF per game since he took over – and Arsenal academy product Akpom appears central to that.
He’s netted four times in those five games under Carrick and is averaging 0.73 xGF per game across the season – again only McBurnie (0.75) can beat that. The duo are averaging double the xG of many of their rivals and at 33s, Akpom looks real value.
Odds correct at 1900 (06/12/22)
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