Nick Hext is backing Reading and Huddersfield for wins in the first legs of the Sky Bet Championship play-offs.
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Fulham v Reading (1730 BST, Sky Sports 2)
I don’t think there’s much between the Sky Bet Championship play-off contenders and that’s why I’m surprised to see Reading as big as 11/2 in the promotion betting.
The Royals finished the season in third but they are still underestimated as we head into the play-off campaign.
Fulham, who ended up five points behind Reading in fifth, are the 15/8 favourites to win promotion to the Premier League but I just don’t see them as such big favourites in this semi-final tie.
The Cottagers produced some scintillating displays during the run-in to overtake Leeds for the final spot, including wins on the road at Norwich, Sheffield Wednesday and Huddersfield, but the Royals are in decent form of their own.
Reading have won seven of their previous nine matches and striker Yann Kermorgant ended the season as the star player in the Championship with nine goals in those nine contests.
The Frenchman is the key man for the Royals’ chances of progressing to Wembley and I think he gives them a real chance in this tie.
Reading’s strength is at home but they’ve still got a strong record on the road, winning 10 of their 23 away games in the league this season. That’s behind only Newcastle, Brighton and Fulham themselves in terms of the number of away successes.
Fulham’s home form also isn’t impressive for a promotion contender. They’ve only won two of their last six games at Craven Cottage, losing 3-1 to Wolves in the middle of March and also being held to draws by Leeds, Blackburn and Brentford.
This helps the 5/1 for Reading to win the first leg make some appeal to me.
I’m predicting a closely contested couple of matches but the prices don’t reflect that and I’d rather have the Royals at 5/1 to win just one game at Fulham on Saturday than the marginally bigger odds for them to have to come out on top in the two-legged tie and the play-off final.
There is a risk that Fulham will be at their barnstorming best, as they were when beating Reading 5-0 in December, but Slavisa Jokanovic’s men can be contained providing Reading are at their most resolute.
It’s only worth a small interest in the Royals, this is still a side that somehow managed to lose 7-1 at Norwich just over a month ago, but I think it’s worth the risk.
Prediction: Fulham 1-2 Reading
Opta facts:
Fulham beat Reading 5-0 at Craven Cottage in the regular league season, with Chris Martin scoring twice for them.
Reading’s only win in their last five Championship fixtures against Fulham came in their most recent meeting in January, where they recorded a 1-0 home victory (D1 L3).
The team that finished sixth in the Championship has won promotion via the play-offs just once in the last 11 seasons – Blackpool in 2009/10.
The team to finish third in the second tier of English football has won the play-offs more times than any other finishing position (10 of 28 – 36%).
This is Fulham’s first play-off campaign since 1997/98, when they lost in the third-tier semi-finals against Grimsby under the stewardship of Kevin Keegan.
Reading will be embarking upon their sixth venture into the Football League play-offs and fifth in the second tier. The Royals have failed to win promotion on all six occasions, most recently losing 2-4 vs Swansea in the 2010/11 final.
The Royals have lost two play-off finals in the second tier, a tally beaten only by Sheffield United (3).
Chris Martin scored in both legs of the 2013/14 Championship play-off semi-final against Brighton for Derby, scoring two goals as the Rams reached the final.
Fulham ended the Championship season on an unbeaten run of six matches, winning five. Jaap Stam’s side also ended the season in good form, winning seven of their final nine Championship matches (L2).
Huddersfield Town v Sheffield Wednesday (1200 BST, Sky Sports 2)
Huddersfield manager David Wagner has been rotating his squad during the run-up to the play-offs.
The Terriers’ form has paid the price with only one win picked up in their last five games and they’ve suffered two heavy defeats during that run, losing 4-1 at home to Fulham and 3-0 against Cardiff on their own turf.
It is tough then to reach a really solid conclusion about the importance of Huddersfield’s poor run. They have undoubtedly lost some momentum but their squad should be well rested for the tough challenge of a play-off semi-final against Yorkshire rivals Sheffield Wednesday.
Wednesday boss Carlos Carvalhal made changes of his own for the 2-1 defeat at home to Fulham on the final day of the season but the Owls have been in better form than the Terriers with six wins in a row secured prior to that loss.
The bookies make Wednesday favourites to reach the play-off final and I can see why they are just about given the edge.
Carvalhal has a huge amount of attacking talent at his disposal, Gary Hooper, Steven Fletcher, Jordan Rhodes and Sam Winnall would walk into virtually any Championship team but they can’t all start for the Owls.
Fletcher and Hooper were given the nod during the run-in, too late for my ante-post tip of Hooper to finish as the Championship's top goalscorer but enough time for the experienced duo to strike up an understanding.
They’ll be key to Wednesday’s changes but I fancy them to have a narrow deficit to overcome in the return game at Hillsborough, which will give Wednesday home advantage, unfortunately for the mentions of Wednesday in this paragraph, on Wednesday.
I’m prepared to take a chance on Huddersfield returning to close to their best form of a few months ago and there’s only really been one way to back the Terriers this season.
An incredible 22 of Huddersfield’s 25 victories in the league this season have come by just a one-goal winning margin so I have to have a nibble on the 29/10 for Wagner’s men to take the narrowest of leads in this tie.
That would lead to a very interesting second leg.
Prediction: Huddersfield Town 1-0 Sheffield Wednesday
Opta facts:
Huddersfield lost both regular league meetings against the Owls this season without scoring a goal (2-0 away in January, 1-0 at home in October).
Sheffield Wednesday haven’t lost any of their last seven matches against the Terriers (all Championship), since losing against them in November 2013 (W5 D2).
Only two fifth placed teams in the Championship have won promotion through the play-offs in the last 13 seasons – Crystal Palace in 2012/13 and Burnley in 2008/09.
The team in fourth place has won the Championship play-offs in two of the last three campaigns (Hull in 2015/16 & QPR in 2013/14); this after a run 15 years without promotion for the fourth placed side.
Huddersfield will compete in the second tier play-offs for the first time in their history. They won promotion from the League One play-offs in 2011/12 with a victory on penalties over Sheffield United.
Wednesday have reached the final of both play-off campaigns they’ve played in (4-2 AET v Hartlepool in League One 2004/05, lost v Hull in Championship 2015/16 final).
Nahki Wells has four goals in three previous play-off appearances, all in the 2012/13 campaign for Bradford City; he won promotion from League Two with the Bantams.
Ross Wallace scored in both legs of last season’s Championship play-off semi-finals against Brighton.
Fernando Forestieri has scored in each of his last three matches against Huddersfield in the Championship.
David Wagner’s team lost six of their final 10 Championship fixtures before the end of the regular season (W3 D1).
Posted at 1910 BST on 11/05/17.